moonslav59

Well, 2015 comes after 2014 and he put up a 1.4 WAR in about half a season with Boston. I'm not sure how that hurts his 2017 projections. 2016 was a mess, but he was hurt for much of it. There is certainly still plenty of reason to still believe in at least some or much of the "hype".

HanRam is here two more years and then has a vesting option for 2019. Chances are he will meet the criteria, but it's not a certain 3 years. The club physical could be subjective. Cots: 19:$22M vesting option, guaranteed if Ramirez has 1,050 plate appearances in 2017-18 and passes club physical after 2018 season

Don't get me wrong, I want Xander, Bradley Jr and Porcello along with Betts/Sale (two must gets), but I have a feeling we won't be able to sign them all. Agreed. I order extension value this way (assuming Beni is too far away to worry about now): 1. Betts 2. Sale 3T. Bogey 3T. JBJ 5. ERod 6. Porcello

Chatam and Ockimey at #7 & #9. This is why to me I'd sign Betts, Sale, Bradley Jr and Porcello in that order. Xander is my 5th guy. If Xander costs more than $25M, I'd pass. Our OF depth is very thin in our organization. Dalbec and Ockimey can take over for Hanley when that time comes. If Shaw doesn't pan out at 1B, we can always move Pablo there after HR moves on. Devers should be ready for ML 3B by then. I'm not sure Chatham offers a solution to replace Bogey, but I get your point and don't disagree. I'm not sure I'd put extending Porcello over Bogey, since Porcello will be near the end of prime when his contract expires. Bogey will not.

Yes, his contract is one reason many teams want him- many non contenders. There are also some teams , mostly non contenders, who do not have a sure thing at 2-3 positions of which Holt might play 2 or 3. They'd love to have a low cost guy like Holt knowing that at least one of the 3 big question mark guys might need to be replaced. Holt offers them a one cost guy that is insurance for 3 spots. He could also platoon against RHPs at one position and against LHPs at another position and basically play FT, since his L-R splits are nearly identical. Now, a .705-.710 OPS is not enough to win a FT job on the Sox, except as a catcher, those numbers blow away what several teams had last year at multiple positions. Even some competitive teams had 2-3 non catching positions with sub .700 offense or even much worse. Here's a few examples: KC: 2B .611 SS .642 LF .690 SFG: 2B .682 3B .713 CF .715 LF .720 WSH: SS .681 1B .673 LF & CF .705

MLB pipeline's top 30 Sox prospects rankings: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos Dalbec #5! More on prospects... http://m.mlb.com/news/article/216472810/red-soxs-2017-preseason-top-30-prospects-list/

You are using WAR to measure value, and we all know a big component of WAR is playing time. the more you play- the higher the value. Now, we all knwo about Holt's propensity to decline in production after playing more and more, but his defense and better-than-some on other teams production, even when struggling would give him more value to a team with a much weaker bench than ours or with more question marks at positions Holt is best at playing (2B, 3B and LF). Saying a player might have more value on another team is not diminishing his current value on our team. Thinking of trading someone does not mean I value them less than anyone else. I loved Moncada and Kopech, but I love Sale more. I'm not for handing Holt away, but I could see him being part of a mid-summer trade to upgrade at a position of need by more value than the downgrade from Holt to Hernandez would be. Maybe I value Hernandez more than I should or more than some of you guys. I get that, but it's just my opinion.

Again, I am not claiming his value is low for us.... just maybe lower than before and maybe higher for another team that would use him more. You are using WAR to measure value, and we all know a big component of WAR is playing time. the more you play- the higher the value. Now, we all knwo about Holt's propensity to decline in production after playing more and more, but his defense and better-than-some on other teams production, even when struggling would give him more value to a team with a much weaker bench than ours or with more question marks at positions Holt is best at playing (2B, 3B and LF).

We don't disagree. He has enormous value to the team in more ways than just playing. Just having him on the roster allows JF to make other moves not involving him, because he knows he's there if needed, of if something happenes suddenly- like an injury. Really, I don't think I am undervaluing Holt. I understand why many GMs ask about him. He's very valuable. However, a team that is likely to need to use him more often should, in theory, value him even more. In general, a starter has more value than his sub. In a sport like basketball, some subs end up playing more minutes than the starters, because they sub for multiple players. Holt has even ended up leading our team in innings at a particular position some years, like LF last year. He finished 5th in PAs in 2014, although he did not get more innings than others at one particular player. I'd have no problem saying he was the 5th most valuable non-pitcher that year. When we had a DH-only DH, I think Holt's value was greatest, even if he didn't play as often some years. Now that we will be using HanRam and Young at DH, we have more flexibility than before, even if by just a little more. We won't want to move our DH to the field mid-game, so having Holt eases those worries to some extent. I do think our bench has gotten much better, and to some extent, it has pushed Holt down on the depth chart at some of those 7 positions he plays. 1B: HanRam/Moreland- Travis would be called up in case of major injury- Holt is #4 at best. 2B: Pedey- I think this is the only clear position where Holt is the first sub, but Hernandez would probaly be pretty close. 3B: Pablo- I think Rutledge is slightly but clearly better vs LHPs and Holt is vs RHPs. SS: Bogey- I think Hernandez would be called up in case of injury, but Holt is close to Hernandez. LF: Beni- Young would move to LF full time, if any OF'er got hurt. I suppose they might decide to keep Young at DH vs LHPs and use Holt in LF those games, but I'd prefer Young in LF FT and Travis or Swihart getting called up for 1B/DH platoon duty. We could also just use Moreland FT at 1B and HR full time at DH. I still value Holt a lot, but I think he was the clear number one sub at more positions before this year, and the loss of a DH only DH might mean his value elsewhere is now greater than his value here.

You're not getting it. Again, how many guys in the Majors can do what Holt does? Maybe 3 or 4? How many guys can give you his 2nd base production over a full season? Maybe 30? I "get" the value of a super sub, but if he's not even the first sub off the bench in 5 or 6 of the 7 positions he plays, then that value should diminish somewhat. We were arguing on the assumption that Holt would start at 2B on 10 teams, so you're not "getting it" when you say there are 30 guys who can give you his production. There are 20- for argument's sake. If he wouldn't start on 10 teams, then of course the value changes. I'll explain it this way. Think "supply and demand." Do you think 25 teams contacted the Sox because of his value as a 2nd baseman? The answer is no. He's been exposed. You've said yourself a thousand times that he breaks down in the 2nd half every year. You don't think other teams are aware of this? No, I never said he'd play 140-150 games only at 2B. I was careful not to even imply that much. To me, he's a Zobrist light, and we all know how valuable Zob is. I know very well how much "other teams know this". My point is, it seems clear to me that Holt playing 140-150 games for another team (at any or mostly one position- it doesn't matter) has more value than playing 90-120 with us. I'm not sure why that's a hard concept to understand, even if you don't agree. There's a reason why so many teams are trying to create their own "Brock Holts" in the minors, but are realizing that it's not easy at all. Most guys want an opportunity to "play everyday." Very few have the ability and the mindset to do what he does with any kind of consistency. Agreed. And, there's a reason many GMs want Holt.

He's going to have to become better than he was before 2013. I think he should have to prove it first and not be handed a job he has failed at for 3 years and much of his career before 2013 as well.

Why the sudden love for Pablo? I'll take .721 over this... Pablo vs LHPs as a RHB: 2015: .142 OPS (He was 2 for freakin 41! 43 PAs) 2014: .563 OPS in 205 PAs 2013: .686 in 167 PAs Plus, Rutledge has been over .748 for two straight years and can be expected to do better than .721 going forward. There's no reason to expect Pablo to do BETTER than his career norm, let alone his recent large sample size of 3-4 years.

If a another team would start him 140-150 games, his value is more for them than us starting him 60-90 games depending on injuries or not. This in no way discounts his value to us. It's just higher with another team that would use him much more often.

I meant it makes no sense that his value as a supersub exceeds his value as a starting 2Bman on 10 clubs. I agree, he could start nearly every game on 10 clubs or more.

That makes no sense.

I don't think anyone is worried about "hurting Sandoval's feelings." You posted that Rutledge and Sandoval should platoon at 3rd, completely forgetting about Brock Holt, who will definitely be in the 3rd base mix barring injury. Maybe it's because you had him in 100 different trade proposals in the offseason that you forgot he was on the team. 😳 I didn't forget about Holt. Rutledge is considerably better vs LHPs than Holt and Rutledge fields 3B better than Holt. In my opinion, Rutledge should platoon with Pablo. I understand that Brock Holt doesn't resonate with "stat guys." There's a reason why DD said that as many as 25 teams contacted the Sox about Holt, and it's not because there are 25 teams that think he'd be a better starting 2nd baseman than the one they have. That's not where is greatest value is at all. Stats represent what Holt and Rutledge do on the field. I don't choose an inferior offensive and defensive player out of loyalty or some need to "get one guy some time" over another, better player. Brock Holt is a high energy guy who shows up to the ballpark everyday completely prepared to play any one of 7 positions. He doesn't bitch when he doesn't play and he always gives you 100%. You can count on one hand how many players that can do that with any kind of consistency in Major League baseball, and THAT'S where his greatest value is, not as a starter for another team, where he'll likely get exposed. Good, he won't bitch when we play Rutledge over him. Holt will play SS, 2B and LF. He might get some time at 3B, but I would not play him vs LHPs over Rutledge. \ Note: that's not the same as saying JF won't do it.

Maybe not, but the guy sucked against lefties, even when he was doing well with SF. (He was at .708 vs LHPs in SF.) Why at this point of his career, is he suddenly going to learn how to hit lefties?

I know. The guy lost his job last spring to Shaw, and now it seems like people are afraid of hurting his feelings if we start the season with him in a 77% platoon having to earn the right to play FT.

Last year we faced a lefty starter 23% of the games. Starting Pablo 77% of the games would be a vast majority of the games. He could also PH in the games he does not start. My guess is that even as a full platoon player, he could still get 500-550 PAs, which is probably just about right.

All GMs avoid saying things that will upset their players, unless they think they need a fire lit under them. I'm sure, if you asked DD last February, what the plans were for Swihart, he'd have said he planned on having him catch all year. Maybe I'm overly high on Swihart's offensive capabilities, but I think he is going to show he can hit very well this year at AAA. If our catchers our doing well, and someone else is struggling or gets injured severely, I can't see us being locked into the current plan for Swihart. I'm denying the plan exists, and I actually agree with it. Swihart should not be moved from catcher this year, unless the ML team would benefit significantly by doing so. I laid out one scenario that involved 3 to 4 things needing to happen for Swihart to be moved to 3B. It's not like I'm projecting or expecting it to happen. I do think the chances he plays some DH with Boston this year are higher than 3B or 1B. I doubt we see him in LF, since we have Young and then Holt out there.

1) GMs often say what they think players, media and or fans want to hear. 2) I think the 2016 plan was to play Swihart as a catcher wire-to-wire. We saw what happened when need overcame desire. 3) I agree that the plan should be to keep Swihart at catcher until we know if he can handle it, but things can happen. 4) I don't think Swihart will play 3B or 1B this year. I doubt he plays OF either. 5) I just rarely say never.

I was kidding about Pedroia. The point is that they need to find out if Swihart can catch. He could very well turn into a BJ Surhoff type some day and I don't think anyone would be surprised by it, but for right now, this season, unless he tells them that he no longer wants to catch, he's going to catch. That seems pretty clear to me. I totally agree, but the very same or more could have been said about Swihart last February. We've been talking about the Swihart vs Vazquez issue for years, and now leon is in the mix, and Swihart fell from catcher's grace last April. To me, the "need to find out" is actually less this year, but I certainly would like toi find out once and for all, so we can do what needs to be done with some certainty. I think that one whole hell of a lot more than 4 things would have to happen for Swihart to be in the 3rd base mix this season, which is why I mentioned Pedroia catching. As far as Holt goes, they are going to try to get him in the line-up more than Rutledge and 3rd is the most logical spot, barring injury. I do think they want to get Holt some semi-regular playing time- not enough to burn him out, but enough to keep him somewhat fresh. I just think Rutledge is a better defender and better hitter vs LHPs. Whether they platoon Pablo fully, partially or not at all, his days of rest will come vs lefties, so that's at least the scenario we should be looking at. I like Holt a lot, but to me, he's really our best sub at 2B. I like Hernandez slightly more at SS- same with Rutledge at 3B. Shaw is probably better at 1B, and Young in LF, however keeping Young at DH vs LHPs might have more value than trying to find a DH vs LHPs, so Young can play LF.

MLBTR... By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2017 at 1:15pm CDT The Red Sox are embarking upon a transition from their old information system (“Carmine”) to a new one (“Beacon”) that will support all of the team’s critical analytics work, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the club . The changing nature of data, a shifting focus in analyzing it, and new means of digesting it have all occasioned the initiative, as Speier explains. Readers interested in that element of the baseball decisionmaking process, or fans of the club, will want to give the piece a full read. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/02/22/the-red-sox-are-retiring-carmine-for-new-analytics-machine/z6UlF4IIGzY3Q3lQQIBK2N/story.html The Red Sox placed a bid on veteran reliever Koji Uehara before he signed on with the Cubs, manager John Farrell tells Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Farrell hinted that it fell shy of the $6MM guaranteed by Chicago. The offer, he said, was not “to what [uehara] expected.” Boston acquired a new setup option in Tyler Thornburg before Uehara put pen to paper with the Cubs, but it’s unclear just when those discussions took place.

It's really unfortunate that we bombed with Trey Ball.....no excuse on missing out that badly. 2013 draft was a bust. Sometimes you just swing and miss- no excuse needed.

I'm not saying that if Rutledge makes the team, he'll never be in there against lefties. What I'm saying is that Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base, unless he's traded or injured, so their won't be a Sandoval/Rutledge "platoon." I think Rutledge will make the team along with Holt, Young and Vazquez as bench players. Young should platoon at DH with hanRam, and hanRam should play 1B vs LHPs. Whether Rutledge platoons at 3B or not depends on how well Pablo is doing, but if there is a platoon, I think it will be Rutledge not Holt vs LHPs.. I do think Holt might play some 3B vs LHPs, but I think Rutledge is better on defense and vs lefties at bat, although Holt has had some good years vs LHPs. Holt vs LHPs: 2016: .350 in 45 PAs 2015: .807 in 128 PAs 2014: .763 in 180 PAs As far as Swihart goes, again, the circumstances are completely different than they were last year. Coming up with a scenario where Swihart plays 3rd this season is about as fruitless as trying to come up to up with a scenario where Dustin Pedroia becomes the starting catcher. If anything, things have chenged to the point where it's more likely Swihart will be used elsewhere. He started out last year as our FT starting catcher. True, he was on a short leash as vaz was recovering, but he was higher on the catcher depth chart than this year. Look, I agree the chances Swihart gets moved to another position are slim. I even said 3-4 things have to happen for him to be moved to 3B, so it's not like I'm advocating the move to 3B. Swi at 3B is way more likely than Pedey being moved anywhere, especially catcher. IMO, Swihart will eventually play at another position more than catch. It most likely will not be this year. I cannot say that about Pedey.