moonslav59

The projected on-base percentage is surprising in light of Swihart's .328 career mark buoyed by a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357. Again, the kid basically was forced to skip a level and was thrown into the bigs early. He did remarkably well considering that context- something you seem to not feel causes doubt on projections based solely on past numbers. Swihart had a .340 OBP in the minors. I don't think a projection of .347 is out of line. Would I bet on over .330? Probably not, but I think I would bet on the over on SLG (.397+).

Hembree is out of options. He's a keeper.

I'm not saying decisions should be based on 2016 numbers, but here some are... WHIP with Sox: 1.27 Ross (1.28 2015-2016) 1.33 Hembree (1.34) 1.33 Scott (1.33) 1.40 Barnes (1.47) 1.66 Abad (1.34 MN & BOS) 1.70 Kelly (1.70) K/BB 2.77 Hembree 2.50 Scott 2.43 Ross 2.29 Barnes 2.00 Kelly 1.69 Abad Not too impressive, and all the more reason to hang onto as many as possible.

Chris Smith article... Peter Gammons reported in December several teams expressed interested in trading for 24-year-old catcher Blake Swihart during the Winter Meetings but Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski "refused to talk about him." It seems former Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a special assistant in Boston's front office, might have helped convince Dombrowski that Swihart is a keeper. In the past few days, Dombrowski has mentioned twice how high Varitek is on Swihart's ability. Dombrowski said on Buster Olney's podcast, "In Blake Swihart's case, he's a real good offensive player. He has the ability to be a good receiver behind the plate. Jason Varitek -- who knows much more about catching than I do -- tells me he's going to be an outstanding big league catcher still. In his mind, he just continues to develop." Dombrowski then appeared on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio on Monday and said, "We project Blake Swihart as being a type of guy that can be an All-Star catcher, also. He's a switch hitter. He's a very good offensive player. He has the defensive capabilities. Still needs some work back there. But as Jason Varitek says for us -- and he knows a lot more about catching than I do -- he says he still thinks that he's going to be a real, fine defensive catcher. He has arm strength back there and has the potential to be an All-Star." The Red Sox told Swihart to forget about the left field experiment and focus primarily on catcher heading into spring training 2017. After undergoing season-ending surgery on his left ankle in August, Swihart is expected to be at full health during spring training camp. Is he a realistic candidate to win the starting job though? As mentioned here on MassLive.com yesterday, it seems more plausible Swihart will start 2017 at Triple-A Pawtucket because he has minor league options remaining while both Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez do not. Players who are out of minor league options who don't make the 25-man roster (barring injuries) are designated for assignment. It would be wise for the Red Sox to make depth a priority and keep all three catchers in the organization. But Dombrowski will give Swihart a chance to make the club's Opening Day roster. "Basically we're open-minded to say, 'Let the best person win the job and let's see what combination ends up making us the best club Opening Day,'" Dombrowski said on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio. There's a good chance we could see a different No. 1 catcher come July than at the start of the 2017 season. Leon and Vazquez most likely will make the team out of spring training. Depth is most important when discussing the catcher position for any organization. But Swihart very likely could take over as the starting catcher within a couple months if Leon and Vazquez aren't providing enough offense. Leon's production for Boston in 2016 (.310/.369/.476/.845, 7 homers, 17 doubles, two triples and 35 RBIs, 78 games) perhaps was an aberration and not his new norm. He was just a .238 in 612 minor league games. Vazquez has the ability to be an elite receiver, blocker and thrower. But will he hit enough? The Red Sox might need to go with the best offensive catcher at some point. After all, they might be unable to afford little offensive production from the catcher position with a batting order that doesn't include David Ortiz in 2017.

Couldn't find anything too recent, but here's what soxprospects.com has and it has been recently updated... Physical Description: Athletic build, lean muscle, solid core. Has filed out considerably since signing, especially in his lower half, but still has some room for added bulk without losing athleticism. Hit: Switch hitter with fluid, line-drive stroke from both sides. Plus bat speed and bat control through the zone with loud, consistent contact. Uses whole field. Solid pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, and understanding of the strike zone. Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. Battles. Doesn’t use batting gloves. Power: Strong for his size. More to come as he physically matures. More present power from the right side. Squares balls up with consistency. Doesn’t sell out for power. However, plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs). Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage. Field: Consistent sub 2.0 pop times, typically between 1.8-1.9. Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism. Began getting reps in left field after being optioned back to Pawtucket in April 2016. Run: Average runner, but above-average for catcher. Can go first to third and score from second. Alert on the basepaths with good instincts. Career Notes: Committed to the University of Texas prior to signing. Primarily played shortstop and outfield in high school. Played for Team USA 18-and-Under National Team in 2010. Also played basketball in high school. Summation: Future first-division regular and solid contributor across the board. Potential above-average hit tool and average power potential at a premium defensive position. Athleticism behind the plate immediately stands out. Natural instincts. Confident actions. Elite makeup and strong work ethic. Arguably the best catching prospect in the game right now.

I never said the sample sizes were large enough, but I responding to the point made that his hot streak was vs weak pitching. The numbers how that his he has faced some tough pitchers and done alright- tiny sample sizes or not. I'm not saying we can base anything on his career MLB sample size, and that's why I researched to show the point made was not an accurate reflection of his sample size as a whole.

No doubt! An .850 hitting catcher would blow away most of our opponents' catcher's OPS. That's a huge plus. Swihart hitting .850 wouldn't have to become a better than average defender to have plus overall value. It would be great, if he could, and that's why it is worth giving him a good long look at catcher this year. I'm just saying that team needs sometimes trump prospects' growth plans.

Most hitter can credit their OPS on doing very well for a small stretch and/or a stretch vs bad pitching. Besides, Swi's best hitting came vs tougher teams in 2015: 1.571 KCR 1.250 PHI 1.227 NYM 1.032 SEA .929 CLE .882 DET .828 NYY Worst OPS: .250 MIA .393 ATL .399 TOR .479 TBR .500 OAK Career OPS vs all pitchers with 5 or more PAs against: 2.000 A Simon 1.400 Felix Hernandez 1.167 M Stroman 1.000 M Pineda 1.000 U Jimenez .929 Tanaka .900 C Sale .833 A Colome ,667 M Estras & Y Gallardo .650 R Osuna .600 M Wright .293 R A Dickey .200 D Smyly, M Moore .000 Aa Sanchez, K Gausman I don't see a trend of hitting well vs only weak hitters. In fact, I see quite the opposite.

How about an .805 in the second half of 2015 in 168 PAs. It's not a large enough sample size for me, but it's double what some consider legit.

I don't disagree, but the same was said last year, and team needs trump prospect development plans. We saw it with Bogey. We saw it with Moncada. We saw it with Beni. We saw it with Swihart in LF last year. Of course, we want to avoid having Swihart sit on the bench more than 25% of the games while in the bigs, but if Pabloi sucks, he could play FT at 3B. If Pablo and Moreland suck, he could play at 3B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs and maybe catch some to make it so he's playing in over 75% of the games. It's not ideal, but it could happen. To me, bad things would have to happen for him to get called up, so I'm not hoping it happens. Say Swi is hitting .850 and is doing okay catching. Suddenly or not so suddenly, we have a big need at 3B, DH or LF. Rather than trade prospects and/or add salary by trading for a fix, we could try Swihart at a new position and save the prospects and money for a later need or move. How Vaz and/or Leon are doing might also play into any decisions made, so a lot needs to happen for Swi to move to a new position this season. The odds are against it happening. Finding a de Aza type for LF can be done easily, but finding a good 3Bman or DH might cost us more than we are willing to give up.

No need to send Barnes and ERod to the minors. We could easily start ERod off in AAA, until we need our 5th starter (game 9). By then, we might have a better idea of what to do, or someone will be placed on the DL. Otherwise, we might swap out ERod for Barnes to keep all or our out-of-options pitchers on the roster.

Swihart on the 25 man roster also makes PH'ing for one or both of catchers easier to do, since the fear of ending up with nobody who can catch is gone. He could also offer depth in LF and possibly at 1B, but I doubt we try to teach him 2 positions mid season.

Come on harmony. How about some context. His first season, he was rushed to the majors as a rookie. Last year, he got 74 PAs. How can anything definitive be taken from that. He could easily have a .320 BAbip this year and a .790 OPS.

No, it's not unrealistic, but not because of his career .714 OPS in just 383 PAs. He's got a .758 minor league OPS in 1466 PAs. It's not unreasonable to see .700 or .750 or .780. I wouldn't project .780, but I would certainly project he will do better than our .686 OPS at 3B last year, and I'm near certain he can hit better than Pablo vs LHPs. If he were called up to play or platoon at 3B, he could also get some reps catching or at DH vs some RHPs. It's not a certainty, but I think Swihart could hit better than Pablo vs LHPs, Moreland vs RHPs or Holt vs any handed pitcher. He won't get called up to play 3B, 1B or DH, if he's hitting .710 at AAA.

From MLBTR.... The cost for the Red Sox to purchase right-hander Hector Velazquez from the Mexican League last week was just $30K, reports Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Velazquez’s pact with the Red Sox includes escalators based on consecutive days he spends on Boston’s roster, and one general manager told Drellich it’s the first such deal he has seen. Red Sox front office members Allard Baird, Jared Banner, Marcus Cuellar and Edgar Perez were all involved in the signing, per Drellich. Velazquez is familiar with Cuellar, notes Drellich, which helped the Sox beat out other teams (including the Yankees) for his services.

Let's just hope Pablo gives us over .750 and average defense, and we won't have to mess with Swi's catcher development plan.

It can't be much worse than what our 3Bmen hit last year (.686 OPS). The MLB 3B OPS was just .783. It's not unrealistic to think Swihart could come close to that.

They could also be hoping to build value, so they can trade one of their catchers--maybe even Swi himself.

Holt should only be used for a short interval, perhaps, only long enough for Swihart to learn the position or for a trade to be made (Todd Frazier?).

That makes the most sense, but if Pablo struggles, or we need help in LF again, we may be forced to give him a try at another position, especially, if he is hitting well at AAA. If he's not, we might as well just keep him learning defense at the catcher position. At some point, coaches might realize he's a lost cause at catcher. That could be mid season. I doubt that happens, but it could.

I think the plan was always going to be Vaz at catcher, if and until Swihart could prove he was better. They moved him off catcher because of a high need for a LF'er. Had they not needed a LF'er last year, Swi would have caught in AAA the rest of 2016. I get your point though, if they really believed in him as a catcher, they could have just acquired a cheap LF'er, like the did with de Aza, and kept his plan as a catcher intact. Sometimes the big club needs just trumps the plans they have for prospects... like moving Bogey to 3B to help us win a ring.

It's a tough situation and choice to make. I don't think 3B is a position Swihart can learn in 10 games, like when they moved Bogey from SS to 3B or Swihart to LF. He needs time to develop as a catcher and see if he can become what we hope he can as a catcher. The time window is unknown. We may need a 3Bman before Devers is ready, and if Swihart can be the hitter many of us think he can be, a solution for 3B might be lost due to the catcher commitment. I think Sox management is playing it correctly. Swihart's greatest value, in theory, is as a plus catcher. We are going to give Pablo every chance to try and earn some of his contract. Hopefully, the timing will work out, but certainly there's a chance of a "what if?" here. I'm happy with the choice made. If Pablo can come through, Swihart will get the time he needs to show us once and for all, if he can improve his catcher defense.

MLBTR... With Blake Swihart facing a tough path to playing time as a catcher, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald wonders why the Red Sox didn’t experiment with Swihart at third base. Swihart has long been cited for his athletic ability and his potential to play all over the diamond, and the Sox are facing uncertainty at the hot corner as Pablo Sandoval attempts to revive his career. As president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski explained, however, the Red Sox have Rafael Devers as the top future prospect at third, and Swihart is more valuable as a long-term piece for Boston if he can stick behind the plate. “I think Blake has a chance to be, with the type of offensive capabilities and athletic capabilities he has, if he can make that transition on a permanent basis to catching, that’s a real plus for the organization….Then as we go into the future, if he can be our catcher for us, he can be our catcher for a lengthy time period,” Dombrowski said.

Agreed. We used 10 SP'ers last year and 20 RP'ers (some were used as both a starter and RP'er). We even had to go out and acquire a SP'er (Pom) and two RP'ers (Ziegler & Abad). We had 12 pitchers pitch as a RP'er in 14 or more games. Keeping as many capable RP'ers one the team is probably a higher priority than having a slight upgrade at our 5th or 6th our of 7 pen slots. We';; be revisiting this discussion once Carson Smith is healthy.

I doubt the Sox would have to pay the full $2M. My guess is someone might want him for close to what he's paid. They might also try a 2 for 1 deal to clear up roster spot. I doubt they trade him. Someone will go on the DL this spring...phantom or real.