moonslav59

Since the closer role seems to have increased its value exponentially since we signed Kimbrel, we might end up getting close to what we gave up for him 2 winters ago. We can't afford to trade Pom, and Kelly is the only other significant last season player on the roster. He's not bringing back top prospects.

...I would not have done the Sale trade. In hindsight, it turns out we needed him because of Price's injury, but at the time that we acquired him, our rotation was already pretty darn good. After already having acquired Price and Pom, Sale was a luxury that we did not need.... We also needed Sale due to Porcello, ERod, Weight and Pom's uncertainty this time last year.

Does giving him the contract mean we are on the hook for his contract or can we DFA him later and be free of any obligations?

You're pretty close to my signing priorities. Betts & Sale are at the top of my list. JBJ is higher than Pom, but that could change after what we see in 2018. Kimbrel will cost too much to keep, but he will not be easily replaced. We can hope Smith, Thornburg or Kelly step it up, and/or we can sign Shaw for $7M and save some there. I think letting Porcello & Bogey go makes the most sense, but that does not total $50M in savings. Pedey and Price are pretty much locked in to the end.

Let's say we keep Kimbel and Pom next winter and let Kelly walk. We keep Sale and let Bogey walk after 2019. We let Porcello go and keep Betts and JBJ. We reap the benefits of losing HRam, Porcello & Castillo. Here's a look at the 2021 preliminary roster: SP1 Sale $31M+ SP2 Price $31M SP3 Pom $20M SP4 ERod $12M (last arb year) SP5 Groom/Beeks/Johnson (min) RP1 Kimbel $18M RP2 ______ $? RP3 ______ $? RP4 Barnes $? last arb RP5 Hembree $? last arb RP6 Scott $? last arb RP7 Maddox/Taylor/??? C _______ (Re-sign Vaz after 2020?) 1B Travis/Ockimey? 2B Pedey $13.75M 3B Devers (maybe 1st or 2nd arb?) SS ______ (Hernandez last arb) LF Beni $? 2nd of 3 arbs CF JBJ $18M RF Betts $28M DH _____ (JD Martinez at $25+M?) Bench: Swihart (3 of 4th arb), Lin or Marrero, Brentz, Chatham/???) That's over $170M for 8 players Sale, Price, Betts, Pom, BJ, Kimbrel, Pedey & ERod, This is not c oun ting any FA we sign this winter to more than 3 years. Then, we have the arb costs for Beni & Devers. That doesn't leave much for the other 14-15 roster slots.

I guess you are assuming the 2017 Porcello is the real Porcello. Without the 2016 Porcello, we might not be talking about 2 division titles in a row. Even as "bad" as Porcello looked this year, he still was clearly better than replacement level. He had a 2.0 WAR and is projected at 2.4 next year. (He was at 5.1 in 2016.) I do agree, we will not bring Porcello back, but we will likely need a solid #3/4 starter to replace him, assuming Sale & Price are going strong. That will cost much more than a minimum salary. What would really help is if for once we could get a solid starter from our farm: Beeks, Groome, Johnson, Velazquez, some one else? I'm not seeing it, but it certainly is possible. I also think replacing Bogey seems like one of the most likely to let go and replace with someone much cheaper. I disagree on JBJ. I'd look to keep him, but it's hard to know.

Every GM gets praised for what they do well and criticism for what they do "wrong"- along with everything in between. DD has done a spectacular job at getting us highly competitive in a short time. There's nothing wrong with discussing the downsides of his moves. Those of us who praise Ben's farm building skills have also been highly critical of the many mistakes he made and his failure to keep us highly competitive. If your are seeing unqualified "nostalgia", then you are not seeing the whole picture.

I can tell.

Clowns often are very entertaining. I'm a big ICP fan. They've been getting a bad rap recently. Dip shits rarely have any upside.

I'm not sure the Sox have traded a key player for prospects while in competition for the playoffs for as long as I have followed them. I guess there's a first time for everything, but DD does not seem like the type of GM to be the first at something like this.

It looks like we have no chance at Stanton, so maybe we go hard for JD and sign him soon. One problem with the timing might be that some teams are holding off on making a firm competitive offer for JD until after Stanton is traded. JD's agent might be waiting it out.

If we sign Shaw, and Smith or Thronburg look strong, notin's suggestion of trading Kimbrel might make more sense. JBJ has 3 years of control left. Trading someone's who's contract ends in 1-2 years makes more sense. (I seriously doubt DD is even contemplating trading a vet.)

For those sick of reading about future tough times, stop reading here. Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.) Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M) Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M) Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M) Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary) Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M) Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018) JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018) Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021 Price $31M until the end of 2022 Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs) Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs) Role Players: Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M) Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs Sunken cost coming off the books: HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests) Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021 Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents. If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then. I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind. Kimmi's point about who fills the other 10-15 slots on the roster is actually a bigger issue than this.

I am very hestitant to sign Martinez as we already have a ton of walking/ repeatedly injured players. He really hasn't been on the DL a lot, and the injuries he sustained do not seem chronic in nature.

I'm not so sure the CWS are looking for ML ready prospects over ones 2-3 years away.

Could the prospects we get for JBJ outweigh what STL is willing to offer? (Personally, I'd keep JBJ and just sign Santana.)

It seems like our best chance at significantly getting better this winter is through free agency. With so many free agent failures in our history as well as the histories of just about every MLB team, I'm not sure why I still feel pretty confident we will make the right moves.

They may get Abreu.

From MLBTR... The Red Sox will also chase Ohtani, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald via text: “Would acknowledge our interest. Beyond that, all would be confidential.” Ohtani joining Chris Sale and David Price would make for a rather enticing top of the rotation, needless to say, and he could also factor in as a designated hitter for a Boston club that received uninspiring production there last season in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era. I know we are a long shot on Stanton, but i find this interesting... Buster Olney of ESPN reports via Twitter that the Marlins are more focused on moving as much of Stanton’s salary as possible than they are on maximizing their prospect return. Seems we might be able to swoop in and steal the show by offering to take the whole contract.

Just to change the subject, could Wil Myers and/or Brad Hand be pried away from the Padres with anything we could offer? Wily Myers: 18:$2M, 19:$3M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$20M club option ($1M buyout) $66M/5 of $85M/6 Luxury Tax Cost: $13.8M Brad Hand: 2 arb years left (2018 est at $4M) Could we sign JD Martinez, trade JBJ for prospects, flip the prospect to SD and add a few more of our own to get these two? Are the Padres in total rebuild mode?

Very true. Even more expensive that Sale's 3 years here. That's one reason I loved the Sale trade. The real problem is everyone's jig is up in too short a time. The relief we get from Pablo, HRam and Castillo coming off the books can and should help us keep or replace some of our stars and defray the rising costs or arbs, but there will very likely come a time where the biggest choice of all will be made by Henry: radically increase our budget or let at least a couple big named stars go without replacing in kind. (Again, this is just my opinion.)

Nobody I know is forgetting other sunken cost salaries coming off the books. (Pablo, HRam & Castillo costs are burned into our minds.) Your point on Betts is missing one key point. His last arb might be $20M, so keeping him or replacing him in kind, will add $10M to the budget. While last year arbs have been rising in recent years, they are still usually way less than FA market value. Chris Sale's last option year is just $13.5M. You think we can keep or replace him at that cost? Add almost $20M right there. (That's Pablo coming off the books just to keep our ace. Replacing Porcello at $20M could be easy, and maybe we even save a couple million. Replacing Kimbrel, Pom, Bogey, JBJ and others will cost much more than their last year's salary number. IMO, We can and will keep some of our stars or replace them with equal value. We will likely still have Devers and Beni and ERod. We'll have a few other good role players, but it seems probable we will lose maybe 2 of our key players and not have the money to replace them without radically changing our spending habits. Yes, this is opinion, conjecture and speculation, but I'm answering a point you made that was equally speculative. BTW, I have never projected last place finishes either, although I would not be surprised by one between 2020 and 2023.

That's assuming he does well in 2018. Anderson Espinoza had 58 IP under his belt when we traded him for Pom. Groome has 62 IP, and he's a top 100 prospect already. (Espi was top 20.)

We need something big to happen, so we can change the subject. The first domino has to fall soon- Stanton to the Giants. Get it done!

LMAO! Too funny!