moonslav59

I agree, but wouldn't it help to know what that next highest bid is or might be? Afterall, we are pinching pennies even with big signings,

You are right, but it does appear Seattle got a good return for Miley after Miley had a very bad season. I do think Miranda is probably better than his recent numbers.

If Carson Smith ends up blowing away Miley's WAR numbers, but Miranda out WARs Smith, I guess one could view the trade as close to a push, but it would make me wonder why we got so little for Miley after having a better season than he had the year Seattle traded him.

If $125M is the top offer, and the player is highly disappointed, then he could try for a 1 year mega deal to try to increase value, but at JD's age, and the fact that it might be hard to top 2017, unless he gets 700 PAs, he'll just have to "suck it up" and settle for a measly $125M. JD may shed a tear, but I won't. I wouldn't be surprised, if the Sox have offered $120M/5 with the stipulation that they be given a chance to up another higher offer. $125m/5 might be a safer offer, so as not to antagonize JD or BorA$$, but why go higher right away, when you might be the only guy in town?

This is what makes it hard for me to say exactly how much I'd agree to pay JD to get him. I'm okay with maybe $135M/5, but not if no other bidder is over $120M/5. The trick is, how does DD know the best "other offer", or even if there even is another serious offer. One downside of having your agent start the talks with a $210M/7 number is that some teams may not even make a bid at all.

I respect this method of judging a trade, and one could argue that had the Sox kept Miley, we might have gotten Miranda for him, but this should not be the only way to judge a trade. Surely, another method, such as looking at just Smith/Elias vs Miley only has merit.

I think looking at the various ways of judging a trade in totality is probably best, but going by just how the players did after the trade during just the years of team control at the time of the trade makes for some pretty eye-opening viewpoints. Here's a couple examples: Trade 1 12/14/11: The Sox traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland for Mark Melancon. Mark did not do all that well for us, but he was under team control through 2015. He was traded to Pittsburgh as part of the deal for Hanrahan & Holt, but judging just the first trade looks like this... 2012: $521K/ -0.2 w BOS 2013: $521K/ 2.5 WAR w PIT 2014: $2.6M/ 2.2 WAR w PIT 2015: $5.4M/ 1.6 WAR w PIT Jed Lowrie 2012: $1.2M/ 2.5 WAR w HOU 2013: $2.4M/ 3.5 WAR w HOU 2014: $5.3M/ 2.0 WAR w HOU Kyle Weiland: 2012: $482K/ -0.2 WAR w HOU Total for Melancon's 4 years: $9.4M/ 6.1 WAR Total for JL & KW's 4 years: $9.4M/ 7.8 WAR The trade looked bad for the Sox, at the time, and after Hanrahan gut hurt, it looked even worse, but looking at it in this fashion, it does not look so bad, especially when many figure RP'ers are shafted by WAR numbers. Trade 2: 11/24/05: The Sox traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. THE Sox won a ring, in large part to the great playoff pitching by Beckett and very good production from Beckett & Lowell all season long in 2007. Here are the numbers for only the original team control years: Ramirez: 2006: $327K/ 4.4 WAR 2007: $404K/ 5.2 WAR 2008: $439K/ 7.5 WAR (HRam signed an extension during the 2008 season but had one more arb year remaining) 2009: $5.5M/ 7.1 WAR Sanchez: 2006: $381K/ 1.9 WAR (30 IP) 2007: $381K/ 0.0 WAR (5 IP) 2008: $390K/ 0.3 WAR (52 IP) 2009: $400K/ 0.7 WAR (86 IP) 2010: $1.3M/ 3.9 WAR 2011: $3.7M/ 3.5 WAR 2012: $8.0M/ 3.4 WAR (2 teams) Beckett: 2006: $481K/ 1.0 WAR 2007: $6M (part of extension)/ 5.7 WAR Lowell: (Was considered a salary dump.) 2006: $9M/ 2.5 WAR 2007: $9M/ 4.5 WAR Marlin Totals: $21.2M/ 37.9 WAR Sox Totals: $24.5M/13.7M This method sure makes this deal look lopsided, while most Sox fans view it as a win-win.

I believe they had more than 1 year of control of Miley, so technically, if you just judge the players traded, you should count Miley's performance in all original control years before and after the second trade. Both ways of judging have their flaws and perks.

I totally get your point, but if I thought I could make $130M/5, I'd kick the tires before "settling" on $125M.

True, but that was not really the trade. I can see both arguments. It's like those who complain about us not keeping Beltre, and not counting the comp picks we got for him (JBJ & Swihart). How about our trade for Melancon? The fact that we traded him later, before he got really good may or may not change how we view that original trade.

Depends. I'd give up 2 years of Pablo for one year of anyone.

I disagree. I feel they already had serious doubts about his defense before the small sample size. It's not like they were the only people in baseball thinking Swihart was not great defensively. Sure, the need in LF steered them to teach Swihart OF before maybe 1B, but I don't think it was desperate. (I think they tried to trade for someone, Beltran maybe?, but it didn't work, so they got stuck with plan B.

We should win that trade, barring further injury to Smith.

He did for me, after the 2007 playoffs.

Wright signs for $1.1M to avoid arb. Looks like he might be part of the team this year.

cots projected $1M. With those savings, we should be able to offer the sun & moon for JD. (LOL)

How about AGon in RF?

I'm not sure I'd call it "rash." I think the idea all along was to bring Vaz up as soon as he was ready. I believe they've always viewed Vaz as the Sox catcher of the future. Since Swihart's bat had an upside potential of being good enough to play at other positions, Sox management naturally decided, probably even before the demotion, that they would try him out at another position of to during the year. It makes total sense, to me. Even now, his best chance at making our 25 man roster, as he is out of options, is based on his ability to be a utility-type player and 2nd/3rd catcher. It was the right choice that had an unfortunate consequence when he ran into the wall.

If I am to be banned, please do it now, while there's nothing to talk about anyways!

With Moreland on board, MM seems much less likely, unless we DH Devers and bench HRam. I liked the idea of signing Moose and moving Devers to 1B.

No, but it does go to show that some GMs, not just ours, do still think he has a high ceiling possibility.

You can try Slingbox and use someone else's set-up in New England as your own, thereby watching NESN and Xtrainnings from anywhere in the world.

I totally agree. I think we can rest Betts 5-7 games, Beni 6-8 games and JBJ 16-20 games (vs tough lefties). That could give JD up to 35 games in the OF without any injuries. (Brentz would be traded or phantom DL'd.) If Moreland or HRam get hurt, JD can play FT DH. Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. HRam plays 1B vs all RHPs and DHs the other JD is in the OF vs RHPs. That keeps HRam below 497 PAs and his vesting option.

5 years with a 6th year team option and buyout should do. The buyout will also lessen the luxury tax hit.

Fair enough, but I feel better about our rotation this year than I did last winter before the Sale trade. Pom may regress, but you have to feel better about him now than last winter. Yes, I feel worse about Porcello now than last January, but what about "positive regression?" ERod is hurt, but we were sketchy about him last winter, too. I feel better about Sale than I did about Price last winter. That leaves Price as the wild card. I do want another SP'er. I almost always do, and I'm never for adding a 5th starter and rarely a 4th starter either. Build from the top. I just think the league is dominated by power hitters, and we are so far behind the curve, it is our top priority. That being said, I would not be upset, if we sign Darvish and not JD.