moonslav59

When does BorA$$ ever get the contract he starts with? $210M/7 is not realistic. I get your point about there being a limit when you walk away, but our choices are not sign JD to whatever it takes vs status quo. There are other big free agents out there beyond JD. True, we may reach a point where every big free agent we're interested in will take a deal that is above the top dollar we should pay, and we might end up settling on something near "status quo", but there's always guys like Lynn, Cobb, Bruce or slightly lesser players.

As long as a solid plan B option is still out there, and we feel we can outbid anyone for that player, we can wait as long as it takes on JD. Once all other quality options are gone, then we may be screwed. We're not at a timeline demand point yet, but if other options start signing quickly, we may have to lay one down.

MLBTR reports.... Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams. The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17. Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team. While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”

A problem arises, if we walk away from JD after he refuses the top offer, only to find out that the demands by Darvish and Arrieta are even more overboard, then the "status quo" position comes more into play. Again, I'd at least sign a Cobb or Lynn rather than standing pat.

We got Pom for Espinoza. I think top single A prospects might have more value than you give them. A team like Miami, that is looking at noit competing for 3-5 years may very well prefer several farther away prospects over fewer ML ready ones.

We are in complete agreement. I'm not sure what my final offer would be for JD. I'm thinking my top offer might be $10-20M over the next top offer, so I'm not for putting it out there right now. I'd go as high as this or walk away and go after a top SP'er: $130M/5 ($26M x 5) with a team option 6th year at $20M with a buyout of $5M, essentially making it this.... $135M/5 or $27M x 5 (The luxury tax cost would be $135M/6 or $22.5M- a very reasonable number for us to handle) or $150M/6 at our choice. (Maybe, I add another $5M to the total package, if the top SP'er asking prices are way out of whack. There is a valid argument to be made about signing JD, Darvish or Arrieta, if all 3 are way above what we think is an acceptable overpay- then what?)

Plus, DD may have the okay to go just under the second threshold.

Let's say sign JD and we keep Pom but lose Kimbrel. How does adding JD and losing Kimbrel suddenly make us noncompetitive? I think we'll be better in 2019 than we were in 2017.

Nobody is close to offering $210M/7, and I doubt anyone is even close to offering more than $160M/6 or $135M/5, which is a more realistic number that should have been put up for debate. I get the argument about the possibility of repeating the same mistakes we made with HRam & Pablo, but I think JD is at a higher level than either of those two were when we signed them. Sure, a high risk is present. Those who are opposed to signing him have a good argument. Hell, if it ends up taking $170M/6 to get him, then that's about as much as Pablo & HRam combined.

1) I disagree that we were or are not good enough to beat CLE or HOU. Just because we are oh for the last two playoffs does not prove we need luck to beat them next time. 2) It looks like CLE is losing pieces this year, but you speak of us losing pieces next year. 3) HOU lokks very good on paper, but some of their young stars could have set backs- much like ours did from 2016 to 2017. They also have a rotation with a history of injuries and a year older Verlander. 4) Yes, we lose some key pieces over the next few years, but we also lose some dead weight (HRam, Pablo & Castillo) and a so-so player making big money (Porcello). After 2018: $22M HRam (assuming he does not get 497 PAs) $13M Kimbrel (very hard to replace in kind, but maybe Smith or Thorburg can) ~$9M Pomeranz (last arb) ~$4M Joe Kelly (last arb) $48M Total Arb raises for Betts, Bogey and JBJ could be very significant, but we may only really need to replace Pomeranz. ERod could step it up.) We should have enough money to pay the arb raises and sign one big FA (SP'er). After 2019: $20.6M Porcello (no big loss) $19M Pablo (a huge gain for us) $13.5M C Sale (Must be kept or replaced in kind to stay highly competitive) ~$10+M Bogaerts (last arb) $6.5M Moreland (easy to replace) ~$3M Thornburg (last arb) ~$2M B Holt (last arb) Total: about $57M Further arb raises for Betts and JBJ, but we should have enough money to keep Sale (Porcello $20.5M + Sale $13.5M), but we may need to try and find a SS within our system or some other cheap way. Certainly, losing Bogey, Moreland, Thornburg & Holt will pay for arb raises to Betts & JBJ and lesser players with enough left over for something significant. One can also expect our young players to improve as they reach prime years. Here's a look at our 2020 roster with my projections in place (assuming we sign JD Martinez): Assuming we lose Kimbrel, Bogey, Porcello, HRam, Thornburg, Moreland, Kelly & Holt 1. Beni LF 2. Pedey 2B 3. Betts RF 4. JD M DH 5. Devers 3B 6. Bradley CF 7. FA 1B (Travis/Ockimey?) 8. Vazquez C (Leon) 9. Chatham SS (Hernandez/Lin/Marrero) SP1: Sale SP2: Price (perhaps post surgery) SP3: Pomeranz SP4: ERod SP5: Wright/Groome/Houck/Mata RP1: Smith RP2: FA RP3: Barnes RP4: Workman RP5: Maddox RP6: Beeks RP7: Johnson/Shawaryn/Thompson/Houck/Mata This looks pretty competitive to me, and I think this is a pretty conservative view on what we do to replace departing players. We may be able to keep Kimbrel and/or Bogey and not be over the second tier luxury tax penalty. I'm pretty sure losing Pablo will help us keep Bogey, if we want him, or replace him with someone just as good or better.

Why would they care about ML ready prospects? They'd prefer lower prospects with higher ceilings, like Groome. They also need capable low cost players to fill roster spots- like Castillo, Holt & Swihart. I agree, they'd want another prospect- maybe like Brannen or Danny Diaz.

The word "signs" was in the actual headline.

The $210M/7 number BorA$$ threw out there is not happening. I don't think that's a fair "either or" to ask us about. Something like $140M/5 or $160M/6 vs status quo might be more like it. Plus, if we don't sign JD, it doesn't mean we do noting else. I hope Bruce is not plan B, but adding a solid SP'er would also not be "status quo" either. I'm confident DD does something significant, so there will be no status quo. How much of an overpay will it be, because it almost surely will be, remains to be seen.

Yes, it's not a 1 year window, especially if HRam does NOT vest.

Last year you thought Sale was a "luxury" and not needed. Now, we have Sale, but Price is sketchy. Since Sale is better than Price, what's changed to make you think SP'ing is a high need? ERod's injury? Surely, Pom's rise to dependability outweighs ERod's projected missed time. Plus, our pen should be stronger with full seasons from Smith, Workman, Maddox and others as well as some possible innings from Thornburg.

I agree. How about.... Castillo ($37.8M/3 remaining) Leon (~$3M arb + 2 more arbs) Holt (~2M arb + 1 more arb) Swihart (4 arbs) Groome $8M cash spread out over 4 years for Prado $28.5M/2 ($13.3M luxury) JT Realmuto (~$4M arb + 2 more arbs)

We need a good laugh with all this endless boredom.

Actually, going over the second tier is not all that bad. Signing a QO free agent is about as bad. Since we reset the tax, things wouldn't be horrible going way over for just one year.

What's the chances DD does both?

MLBTR reports... Martinez To Sign With Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters By Connor Byrne | January 6, 2018 at 5:22pm CDT Right-hander Nick Martinez has agreed to a $1.8MM deal with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). Martinez revealed that he turned down multiple major league offers before heading to Japan, per Sponichi (h/t: Kazuto Yamazaki of Beyond the Box Score, on Twitter). The 27-year-old Martinez had been on the market since the Rangers non-tendered him Dec. 1. Martinez otherwise would have been in line to collect a projected $2MM in arbitration. As it stands, Texas has been the only major league organization for Martinez, whom the team chose in the 18th round of the 2011 draft. Martinez ended up exceeding the 100-inning mark in 2014, ’15 and ’17 with the Rangers, though a lack of strikeouts and groundballs helped lead to run prevention issues in the majors. In all, he worked to a 4.77 ERA/5.36 FIP with 5.14 K/9, 3.21 BB/9 and a 39.8 percent grounder rate over 415 1/3 innings before immigrating to Asia. Martinez was worth minus-0.2 fWAR during his Texas tenure, which he wrapped up with a replacement-level 2017 that consisted of 111 1/3 frames of 5.66 ERA/5.80 FIP ball.

Yes, and this is the reason he will never be called up. He'd have to be tearing up AAA to even consider a call-up.

So, which would your prefer? $150/6 deal ($25M x 6) or $161M/7 ($23M x 7)? For $11M more, we save $2M a year for 6 years both in real dollars and luxury tax costs. I'm thinking this might get it done.... $130M/5 ($26M x 50) with an option for a 6th season at $20M with a $5M buy out, making it... $135M/5 or $27M/5 but a luxury cost of $22.5M (essentially: $135M/6) or $150M/6 ($25M x 6)

I'd be fine with acquiring a top pitcher instead of JD, but I'd prefer we add major power. I'm usually all about pitching, and maybe I have more faith in Price, Porcello & Pomeranz than is deserved.

No. He will not get $210M/7 from anybody. I'm thinking $125M/5 will be the top offer, but I might go as high as $130M/5 or $150M/6, if that's is what it will take to get him.

I am very near certain, DD is not thinking status quo, despite the Moreland re-signing.