moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I doubt the injury history of Darvish would keep anyone from buying a ticket.
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The summary... The fact that there are different WAR values is not a problem, but rather a feature. WAR attempts to summarize a player’s on-field value and that is a very complicated question. Given how complicated baseball is, you would expect that people would arrive at different solutions to the same problem. Positional player WAR values typically only differ dramatically when the various systems disagree about a player’s defense. The hitting and running stats are different, but they usually aren’t different enough to significantly alter the values you see. Pitchers, however, are valued very differently by the different systems. FIP is a linear weights based system that treats all balls in play as equally valuable and ignores sequencing. Baseball-Reference starts with runs allowed and works backwards. Baseball Prospectus uses a complex modeling system to attempt to derive the value of individual events while controlling for contextual factors. You have to decide which method is the one you prefer, although looking at each site is the best way to get a complete picture of the player.
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Signing JD and Darvish would put us over the second luxury tax penalty tier. It's not a horrible penalty, but I doubt we do it. At least Darvish and JD have no QO penalties.
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How about this? Sign JD Martinez Trade JBJ (projected $6M arb and then 2 more arb years) ERod (projected $4M arb and then 3 more arb years) Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey For Danny Duffy (18:$14M, 19:$15.25M, 20:$15.25M, 21:$15.5M) Scott Alexander LHP (27 y/o RP'er with 4 years of control --including 3 arbs) Luxury cost: 2018-2021: $13M
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I never said there were no others. Maybe it's not as "rare" as I think, but since both use different methods, it doesn't bother me, as long as I know why there is a difference.
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2004 was magical. I'd gone over 30 years never experiencing a championship winning baseball team. My family moved to Milwaukee in the mid 60's, so I was able to cheer for two Packer championship teams and one Milwaukee Bucks championship (Lew Alcindor). A long stretch of futility for all sports followed until a third string QB named Joe Montana led my Fighting Irish to a championship over the Earl Cambell-led Longhorns. My Packers broke the professional drought, finally, but the Red Sox win in 2004 eclipsed all others and then some.
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For sure...
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Even ERA- and ERA+ have flaws, but they are better than ERA.
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Reminds me of my feelings when my childhood team, the Milwaukee Brewers traded my favorite player, Tommy Harper, to the Red Sox at the same time my family moved from right next to County Stadium to Portland, Maine. I switched to being a Red Sox fan, then watched anxiously as the Brewers almost one a championship in 1982. They lost 4 games to 3 vs STL after leading 3 games to 2. I'm glad I switched. (BTW, I'm still a Bucks and Packer fan.)
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Exactly, and when fans used to argue about who is better or worse before these metrics, we often heard debates like this: "Player A had a much better BA and SLG%." "But, player B had a better OBP and more RBIs." Each fan placed more value on one stat vs another, and obvious subjectivity occurred more often as fans often switched their criteria to meet their preconceived beliefs. At least each WAR methodology stays consistent. Yes, every stat and metric has flaws. Nobody here has ever argued otherwise. I think the idea of trying to put one number to the whole scope of a player's value is an admirable endeavor- flaws and all. I have no issue with anyone who does not think that idea is worthwhile or of any importance, but I'm pretty sure each team has been trying to do something like this internally for a long time. They probably also use UZR/150, bWAR and fWAR as part of their evaluations.
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Yes, we already dissected the wide Archer WAR differentials. I'm sure there are others with big xFIP vs non xFIP indicators, but for the most part, pitchers with very goof xFIP perform well under other indicators at the same time, so my guess is large differentials are rare. Personally, I find fault with an over reliance on FIP. I think it falsely harms low K pitchers who consistently get players to make out by contact (GO's and FO's) and credits pitchers with high K rates but also high OPS against. I get the reasoning to the formula, and I do think it has value, but it is nice to have a second methodology to compare results (bWAR).
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$26M x 5 is still too much, but if that's what it takes, we probably will "take the plunge." My concern is that even $130M/5 might be bidding against ourselves. I'm not sure anyone else will come c lose to that, so maybe we should start at something like this... $105M/4 with a 5th year option at $26M with a $5M option making it a $110M/4 or $131M/5 deal.
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Maybe something like $125M/5 with a 6th year option at $25M or $5M buyout, making it essentially a $130M/5 or $150M/6 deal. Not close to $210M/7.
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I agree. Option B or C is likely not a hitter. If we don't go large on JD, I think we go large on a SP'er and see how HRam looks. That's what I meant by DD not having to hurry until Darvish or Arrieta are close to signing.
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I agree. To me, as of now, Marco is the starting 2Bman and our 4 man bench is Leon, Swihart, Marrero and Brentz. Holt starts in AAA. If we sign JD and keep HRam and JBJ, I'd try to trade Brentz, phantom DL him or eventually DFA him over Swihart or Marrero. However, if Lin and Quiroz look good, I wouldn't be upset, if Marrero ends up as the odd man out at some point.
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If you are out of options, you cannot start the year in the minors. There is no 25 man roster until opening day. All players not making the 25 man roster are essentially, sent to the minors. Those without options can be claimed by other teams.
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I think DD kept Holt in order to keep 2B depth and not have to sign someone like Nunez. I'm not sure Holt has the inside track to the opening day 2B job. Didn't Marco beat out Holt, Marrero and others to the 3B job last year? Then, he got hurt. I think Marco has a slight advantage going into ST'ing, but it might come down to the situation where the loser out of these two, starts in AAA, so we can keep Marrero or Swihart as further depth.
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But, if we do DFA Brentz, Swihart or Marrero (all out of options), doesn't the team who claims him have to put him on the 25 man roster or subject him to another team claiming him, if they don't? The option situation should not change due to a change of teams.
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I agree that Holt likely makes the opening day 25 man roster, but with a new manager, maybe he doesn't. I'm not so sure Marrero is so good that we can't afford to DFA him, but then again, is Holt that good that we can't afford to keep infield depth by starting him in AAA and keeping Marrero around? Same can be said about Swihart. His ability to catch makes him a worthy choice as a 25 man roster player. We can afford to PH for Vaz or Leon in the middle innings, if needed. If Swihart can play LF, maybe he knocks Brentz off the roster. If he can play 1B, maybe trading HRam becomes an option. Some interesting choices, but nothing earth-shattering, if we have to let Brentz, Marrero or Swihart go., of if we keep Holt in AAA a little while. There's also the phantom DL in play.
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Yes, I get that, but once one's secondary options begin to disappear as they sign elsewhere, a sense of urgency sets in and a time to accept or decline might be issues out of fear of losing all contingencies by waiting it out. We also lose leverage as secondary options are signed elsewhere. Luckily, for us, i think, nobody else is signing either.
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In all fairness, it does show that different people (or services) choose to place value based on different criteria. One could view that as being subjective with their initial choices of measurement. Personally, I have no issue with different criteria being used, in fact, I find it helpful to have two different methodologies being used to determine value. This way I can look at both numbers and figure the value is probably somewhere in between both numbers much more often than not. It should be noted that significantly vast differences are pretty rare between bWAR and fWAR.
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DD does not have to move quickly with JD unless his option B (or C , D...) is getting close to signing with someone else. Then, and only then would some sort of drop dead time limit on the JD offer possibly be issued.
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They only start counting when one of us brings it up.
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4 of the top 5 are Yanks! Happy New Year!
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He'll start the year in AAA and could be called up by May, if needed.
