moonslav59

If a contract is not absurd, because the player deserves that kind of money on the open market, it can be traded away for useful pieces. Plus, they did not have to trade GS. They cut the $30M needed with other moves. They chose to trade away more than what they needed to do for two reasons: 1) To make more money for the new owners 2) To gather as many prospects as possible for extended future success.

JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10: 1. Groome 2. Chavis 3. Mata 4. Houck 5. Ockimey 6. Shawaryn 7. Brannen 8. Scherff 9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com) 10. Travis

Wrist injuries can linger or reoccur, but many times they are not a long term problem. He did have a nice ending to 2017 (.803 Sept OPS), including going 25 of his last 78.

I think the Astros made out better. I'm not sure how good the two prospects are, but I live near Houston and never heard of them. Makes me wonder, if we could have gotten him for ERod and Hembree.

The second limit is not as bad as some have made it out to be, especially to teams that just reset their tax, like we did. It's the 3rd level that's the killer. Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are taxed at 12 percent on all money spent above $217M. Those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. So, basically, we have about $11-14M (depending on Mookie's arb) to reach the second limit. We have $31-34M to spend and still stay under the 3rd limit. We could sign JD to $25M and have about $6M or $9M to play with this summer, if needed.

Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's. The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership. They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.

Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV) $Millions 31.0 Price 22.0 HRam 20.6 Porcello 18.5 Sandoval 13.8 Pedroia 13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout) 12.5 Sale 8.50 Pomeranz 7.05 Bogey 6.50 Moreland 6.10 JBJ 3.83 Kelly 2.38 ERod 2.23 Holt 1.95 Leon 1.43 Vaz 1.10 Wright 0.85 Smith 0.85 Workman 7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts 5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez 14.0 Player Benifit Payment $202.3M or 205.3M Total Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).

What's a comparative offer the Sox might have made to top this one?

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

True...or close to double. Addison Reed just got almost $17M/2. I think Kelly is a close comp but maybe not as good as Reed. Still, the last year of arb is usually "closer" to FA market rates than earlier arb years, but the numbers can still fall way short.

I'm talking myself out of wanting JD for anything more than $120-125M/5. I wouldn't be upset, if someone else signs him for $115M/5

True, but over the last 4 years, he has a lower WAR than Todd Frazier and is just above Encarnacion who got less than half of what JD expects to make. 2014-2017 JD .300 128 350 (32 HRs and 88 RBIs in 535 PAs per season) .362 OBP/ .574 SLG LM .242 80 220 (20 HRs and 55 RBI in 470 PAs per season) .324 OBP/.438 SLG

Yes, JD is a big dice roll, too with bigger upside (performance level) and downside (money & years).

So much for re-setting the luxury tax. Maybe they have a taker on Ellsbury or will trade other somewhat costly players. This would suck, bigtime for us.

The risk is which Morrison are we getting? The 38 HR and .353 OBP one from 2017 (He also hit .375 in Sept of 2016) or the previous one?

Yes, JD's offense is much better than Morrison (except his 2017 numbers), but at what added cost? The money saved by not signing JD and getting Morrison instead could be used to add another solid SP'er or keep Pomeranz/Kimbrel around longer. It wouldn't bs just a JD vs Morrison comp. It would be JD vs Morrison & Cobb (or the like).

If we sign JD to DH, aren't we relegating Moreland and HRam to such "limited roles"? Sure, JD can play the OF when one needs a rest thereby opening up maybe 15-30 games at DH for HRam, but there's not that much difference between Morrison & JD in terms of how it affects other players's playing time. (Besides, can't Morrison play a few games in LF?)

If you double BR's weird projection of 320 PAs for Devers in 2018, he's have these numbers: .279 26 82 (.344/.479/.823) If you change his 2017 numbers to match 162 games played (670 PAs), here would have been those numbers: .284 27 83 (.338/.482/.819) Either numbers could provide quite a jolt to our 2018 season.

I'm starting to feel the same way, but I wouldn't give up on JD until maybe Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere. There is no hurry, until our plan B options are about to be signed elsewhere.

Good one!

BTW, great work MVP. Thanks for all the info.

With our track record on pitching prospects, I'd probably feel better if our top 10 had no pitchers. That way, we could trade our positional prospects for the next Chris Sale.

We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing. Who might be ready for 2019? Shawaryn or Beeks? Johnson, Thompson or Lakins? Hmmm.... Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

Almost all arbs are worth their salaries or they would have been non tendered before the arb. The whole system seems flawed in some ways as things like what arb year is the player in seems to matter more than the performance level of the player in the previous season or two. I agree that JBJ is worth $10M on the open market, but the arb process is far from "open". The reason Mookie's arb number seems low compared to JBJ's is that Mookie's is a year one arb (out of 3). JBJ's is year 2 (out of 4). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years. I'm not defending the system, but it is what it is, and our players are getting close to "what they are worth" within the established system of setting the value of contracts for arb eligible players. Pom's $8.5M was in his final arb year. Bogey's $7M is in his 2nd of 3 arb years. I think Holt was overpaid at $2.25M for his 2nd or 3 arbs years, but we're talking by thousands not millions of dollars under the system in place. All in all, it looks like the Sox might end up saving a few million dollars over the estimates, but the Betts' arb decision might change that.