moonslav59

True. It could be gone in a game or two. Bad choice of words.

It would be fantastic for him to opt out as he reaches the end of his prime years. Not only would we not have to witness his post-prime years, we'd have his $30+M to use on re-signing Sale & Betts and getting another top level FA starter.

Sox OPS leaders: .860 JBJ - taking a commanding lead .840 Betts- needs to get hot .826 Bogey- hanging tough .818 Moreland- might need some more rest (.808 Travis in 33 PAs) .782 Beni- I'd like to see him get over .800 .768 HRam- needs to get over .800 .746 Pedroia .734 Young .700 Vaz .695 Leon .622 Pablo .558 Rutledge .552 Marrero (What a putrid trio of 3Bmen offensively)

We've made it to the top half in runs scored: 449 HOU 447 WSH 445 NYY 428 LAD 422 AZ 416 COL 398 SEA 397 TEX 395 TBR 394 MIL 385 CIN 385 NYM 377 BOS We're 22 runs from 7th place. We're 5th in OBP at .338 (just .010 from 1st) We are 19th in SLG (.417), which is .007 from the top half of the leaague despite ranking 26th in HRs with just 80. We'd need 18 more HRs to be 15th in MLB.

As long as caring about what the media or fans think doesn't interfere with his pitching, I could care less. Maybe the media poison will cause Price to opt out. There's always hope.

soxprospects.com has updated their rankings with recent draft picks inserted: http://soxprospects.com/ Big moves or insertions: 4 Chavis (from 11) 5 Tanner Houck 6 Mata (from 16) 7 Ockimey (from 10) 8 Chatham 9 Dalbec (from 5) 10 Beeks (from 29) 11 Lakins 12 Johnson 13 Longhi (from 9) 14 Cole Brannen 15 Alex Scerff 16 S. Anderson 17 M Shawaryn 18 D Hernandez 19 J Callahan (from 33) 20 R Raudes (from 8) 21 B Taylor 22 T Buttrey (NR) other big movers: 40>24 A Maddox NR>26 Velazquez NR>31 T-W Lin 44>32 D Mars 47>33 J Tobias 17>34 T Ball 45>35 R Baldwin 29>37 T maheny 18>40 L Ysla (DFA candidate) 15>41 J Cosart 30> 51 K Washington

I thought we'd trade for Frazier last winter, but he's a seriously flawed 2nd half hitter off to a llesser start than previous years. I don't like how he projects ending this season. I would not give up our best power hitting prospect for 2 month rental like Frazier. I might trade Ockimey, since I like Travis & Longhi better, and decent 1Bmen are easy to find, or Lakins for Frazier or Lowrie.

He's a two month (+ playoffs) rental. If an extension is part of a trade, I'll listen, but I still think the overpay need to get Mouse (extended or not) would not be worth the cost. I think we go light (Lowrie--maybe Frazier) or take a chance on Devers in September.

Kelly had some very good numbers as a starter for the Cards, too. It wasn't "hype". It's not easy knowing if and when to convert a starter to a RP'er, but with Kelly, it sure worked out well, so far. Last 365 days (50+ IP or 200+ PAs) Sox Leaders: OPS against : .412 Kimbrel .525 Kelly .554 Sale .655 ERod .673 Barnes .715 Price .716 Porcello .763 Pomeranz .786 Hembree WHIP 0.794 Kimbrel 0.906 Sale 1.071 Kelly 1.139 ERod 1.184 Porcello 1.199 Price 1.350 Pomeranz 1.354 Barnes 1.428 Hembree ERA (not a good stat for judging RP'ers) 1.05 Kelly 2.38 Kimbrel 2.77 Sale 3.38 ERod 3.58 Hembree 3.65 Price 3.75 Porcello 4.17 Pomeranz 4.43 Barnes Craig had a recent three year stretch that was excellent before the trade. I'm not sure anyone or any GM could have known how badly he'd decline. With pablo and HRam there were signs, but with Craig, there was just the foot injury.

14 walks. That will boost our OBP. Nice to see Marrero get on base 4 of 6 times. I'm glad they finally moved JBJ up in the line-up. I'm wondering, if he should be moved to 4th. He's a beast! 3 hits tonight.

I know you don't put much stock in Sox budget restraint talk or luxury tax implications, but taking on Verlander's salary would have a major impact on the budget for 2.5 years. We might even exceed the $20M over the luxury limit penalty that involves more than just monetary penalties. I doubt it will happen without the Tigers paying part of his salary. My guess is some other team might not demand as much money payments as we might. I'd love to have Verlander on our team. I'm almost always for adding top level pitchers, but this would be too much to handle, plus, we'd be paying for the highest risk years of his contract as he moves way beyond his prime years. If they want to take Pablo and $10M a year as part of the deal, I'll listen.

He had an injury. It could mean he's fragile or lacks endurance, so he could decline as the year progresses. It could just mean he had an injury, is over it, and has no durability issues.

Top 3Bmen by WAR since 2015: 17.7 Bryant 17.5 Donaldson 14.8 Machado 12.9 Turner 12.2 Arenado 11.6 Beltre 10.6 Seager 10.1 Longoria 9.4 Carpenter 9.1 Rendon 8.4 Ramirez 7.7 Frazier 6.7 Lamb 6.4 Prado 6.2 Kang 6.0 Duffy 5.9 Moustakas (#17) (In fairness, fangraphs has Mouse listed as 31st in PAs by 3Bmen, so being 17th in WAR is better than it looks.) While I think Mouse is better than an average 3Bman, I would not overpay for 2 months of his services.

2017: 39-10 (.796) when scoring 4 or more (15-9 /.625 when scoring 4-5 runs) 4-25 (.138) when they score 3 or less (4-13 /.235 when scoring 2-3 runs) 2016: 84-23 (.785) when scoring 4 of more (26-12/.684 when scoring 4-5 runs) 9-40 (.184) when scoring 3 or less (8-27/.229 when scoring 2-3 runs) It's really about the amount of games we score 0-1 runs: 2016: 1-19 (20 games is 12.3% of our games) 2017: 0-12 (12 games is 15.1% of our games) Games scoring 2-3 runs: 2016: 8-21 (.276) 2017: 4-13 (.235) There's not a big difference here in winning percentage.

Kelly could turn into a great RP'er. He's off to a great start this year, and he had a great ending to 2016.

I never believed Lackey would sit out a year either, but maybe the Sox and other GMs knew otherwise. I did not like the trade at the time, but I did think trading Lackey was totally understandable. I liked Kelly at the time- as a starter, and I felt Craig had a good chance at winning the 1B job. The season we traded Lackey was lost, so we basically ended up trading one year of Lackey, in which he would not have been enough to help to make the playoffs that year, for 5 years of Kelly and Craig's awful contract. It was a bad trade, but I can see why they did it. I was actually more upset with the Lester trade return.

I certainly prefer keeping Devers and Groome over Travis, but with Moreland and Young's contracts up after this season, we'll need a cheap bat to join the 25 man roster next year. I see Devers, Travis and maybe Holt (if healthy) or Brentz (if Holt is not healthy), or maybe even Swihart taking the roster places of Moreland, Young and Marrero/Lin. We may sign a cheap FA corner IF'er or someone who can play 3B, 1B and LF, but I'd love to see us be able to get by without spending any money on corner IF'ers this winter. Use all the available money to keep our pitching staff strong. Next years projected 25 man roster: SP (6): Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, Pom, Wright RP (6): Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Thornburg, Barnes, Hembree C (2): Vazquez, Leon (or Swihart) 1B (2): Travis, HRam (DH) 2B : Pedroia 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts IF: Hernandez (or Holt/Rutledge/Pablo or Lin/Marrero) OF: Holt (or Brentz or FA pick-up that might also play 3B/1B) LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts Let's assume bold are the 25, this is what's on the farm (Gone: Pablo & Rutledge) SP: Groome, Johnson, Velazquez, Owens, Beeks, Stanki, Lakins, Raudes, TBall, Buttrey, Cosart RP: Ross, Scott, Elias, N Ramirez, Taylor, Maddox, Workman, Martin, Anderson, Mata, Hernandezz, Callahan, Nogosek, Shepherd, Ysla C: Swihart, Romanski, A Rei 1B: Longhi, Ockimey 2B: Lin 3B: Marrero, Dalbec SS: Hernandez, Chatham LF: Brentz, kemp, T Hill RF: Taverez, Washington, Mars DH: Witte, Chavis

We still have Kelly as part of that deal, and we will still have Kelly for two more years. I'm not saying it was a good deal, but Lackey might not have been with us for his "free year", and probably would not have re-signed with us afterwards.

Beni doesn't get on base enough at this point in his career. I had hoped he'd have won a 1-2 slot by now, and maybe he will be someday, but HRam is close to passing Beni for 6th in OBP on the team.

I'd keep Pedey 1 or 2, because he still has the best OBP on the team (.371). I've always thought Bogey should be 1 or 2 due to his lack of HR power. He has the second best OBP on the team (.366). Personally, I'd go Bogey 1/ Pedey 2, but flip flopping them may avoid DPs. Pedey seems to like the two slot, so let's start with 1. Bogey 2. Pedey I've always liked putting our best overall hitter (OBP+SLG) up 3rd, despite all the evidence that kimmi has presented against that idea. JBJ actually has a better OBP than Betts, and he's just .001 from Betts in SLG. Since Betts is a career 2nd half hitter, I'd go: 3. Betts 4. JBJ 5. Moreland HRam seems to be heating up, so maybe he takes the 5 slot from Moreland before too long, and he's probably a better choice than Beni for the 6 slot. That could also change as the season progresses: 6. HRam 7. Beni Until we make a chance at 3B, our catcher should bat 8th and our 3Bman 9th: 8. Vaz/Leon 9. Lin/Marrero/Pablo/Rutledge (Devers?) Maybe flip a player or two here and there based on L-R splits. Find a way to get Young in vs LHPs (rest Beni/Moreland?).

Although this team lacks power, I think Chavis might be the guy we end up trading for a 3B rental. We may add a mid tier pitching prospect or two to get somone better, but I don't see (want) us trading Devers, Travis or Groome. Whether we reset the luxury tax this year or next, and it almost certainly has to be this year or next, we will need Travis to replace Moreland's contract with a minimum one and Devers to replace Young's. Either Holt or Brentz might be our 4th OF'er, but I don't see us doing anything significant with free agency next winter, possibly even if we reset the tax this year.

Maybe you were thinking of Chatham.

I agree with everything you say here, but I do think staying under the limit is a high priority--very high. They could go over, but it looks like it will be much harder to stay under next year to reset the numbers. It would mean we'd have to not replace Young and Moreland with free agents. We could not sign anybody to any significant contract. Pretty much all of Young and Moreland's money will go to arb raises and option year raises.

Nice to have 9 guys over .720. Too bad none play 3B. No players over .845 is shocking for a Sox team near the luxury spending limit. Too shocking to believe, but there's still time for one or two to get over .900. The bottom three all play 3B. Just a good fielding/.720 rental would be a huge upgrade for our weakest link.

New leader on top of the Sox OPS board: 100+ PAs .845 JBJ .836 Moreland .834 Betts .823 Bogey .776 Beni .762 HRam .738 Pedey .730 Young .720 Vaz .695 Leon .622 Pablo .558 Rutledge .521 Marrero