moonslav59

So, it's still impossible for Price opting out to ever benefit us? Even if Price does well after leaving us, we could still benefit by him leaving, and it's not some minor percentage of a chance. Look, I agree the chances are very slim he opts out. Very very slim, and I get the point that if he does opt out, it must mean he has probably done great for us and the market price for starters have risen considerably, but FA market prices for top FAs is not an accurate gauge of true value. History has shown that the majority of big FA signings have turned out badly for the teams signing them. You'd think that would adjust the market prices, but it hasn't. They keep going up. teams continue to pay for past performance in the hopes that they will get some of that past value into the future. It rarely happens. That's the reason I'd love to see Price bolt, even if he has been pitching like superman at age 32-33 with us.

2015-2017 combined 3B WAR: 1) 21.1 Cubs 5) 13.4 Cards 10) 10.8 SEA 15) 7.8 MIL 20) 5.8 MIA 25) 2.9 DET 30) -2.8 BOS (29th place is +2.2 ATL. We are 5.0 away from the second worst team at 3B over the last 2.5 years! That is astounding! No other team is 5 points ahead or behind the next ranked team.)

Over the last 10 years of team 3B WAR, there are 300 samples. How do recent Sox teams rank in this 300 sample size study? 299th the 2015 Red Sox 286th the 2017 Red Sox (On pace to place 298th) This is totally unacceptable for a team looking to win a championship. Two of the worst 3 seasons by a position in a 10 year period! If you count the second half of 2016 we've had a horrific 5 out of 6 half seasons at 3B. standing pat is risking a good chance at winning a ring.

I hope I will eat crow as our farm becomes a top level farm again.

I don't value Lin or Marrero highly at all.

Agreed. Marrero and Lin seem to be better options than Pablo-Rutledge, but the fact is we are still an overall negative at 3B. Can we still win with a negative at a position? Yes, we have already shown we can, but all contending teams are looking to improve as they head towards the playoffs. If we are unwilling to give Devers a chance this year, and I have no issues with Sox management's decisions on Devers, I feel the easiest way to improve our playoff chances is to turn a weakness into an average position. We should not stand pat, but I'm not for trading a top prospect for a rental either. We should be able to get someone better than Aaron Hill without significantly affecting our future.

His scoring runs is almost totally dependent on his OBP. Others can do the same. Yes, it's nice to get RBIs from the one slot too, but Pedey or Bogey would get some there too--maybe slightly less, but the theory is that we'd get more RBIs out of a power hitter up third instead of Bogey and his weak SLG%, and that the differential would outweigh what we'd get from a power hitter batting 1st.

Never? Is it not possible that Price pitched very well and/or the starter market rises sharply to the point where he opts out. Price then realizes his age appropriate decline or gets hurt or follows the path of most big name FA signings that fall way short of expectations for the team he goes to. We use the money saved to keep more of our young players or sign another sP'er that may not have the history of Price, but nevertheless ends up doing better than the 34-37 years old Price. This scenario may be unlikely, but it is certainly possible, if Price opts out..

As good as Price might have been in 2018, but not as projected going forward. Top FAs are continually being paid big money for what they did in the past. Most big FA signings fell far short from expectations after the signing. When I speak of getting someone slightly worse than Price (but younger) for the same money, I'm talking about their past and current value-NOT their future value. In theory, I'd rather have a 30 year old pitcher who just finished 5th in Cy Young than a 34 year old Price coming off a theoretical CY Young award season in 2018 at near the same money per year. If Price went 40-4 with a 1.80 ERA the rest of his contract, I'd be happy, if he bolted with his opt out clause. I'm not sure why you find this to be an unreasonable position. I agree that it is highly unlikely Price bolts, and if he does, it will be because he thinks and is likely to get more money elsewhere. Just because some other GM might pay Price more doesn't mean I have to agree hes' worth it and would want him here at $31M instead of the $33M he gets from the Dodgers. The Dodgers don't set my beliefs on what a player is worth financially. As things stand right now, and everything can change with an injury or career turnaround, I want to be able to extend or re-sign Sale, Betts, JBJ and Bogey. I do not value Price's 34-37 year old years as important as keeping our young studs. I hope Price wins the Cy Young.i was glad Porcello did, but winning it has little to do with what is to come. If Price does well enough to be able to get more elsewhere, I'd be happy in many ways. It would mean we probably won a championship this year or next, and we 'd have his money available to spend on younger players with better projected futures tahn a 34 year old starter.

Yes, Longhi will be a rule 5 candidate this winter, so this could also have been a preemptive move to avoid losing him or someone else: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Gerson Bautista, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Rafael Devers, Jhonathan Diaz, Jake Drehoff, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Tzu-Wei Lin, Nick Longhi, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

Yes, and I happen to believe that Bogey and Pedey are at least equal to Betts in getting on base. I feel they are both better, even if by just a small amount. Bogey has very little HR power. Pedey has shown he does very well batting 1st or 2nd. My point is that we lose nothing batting Bogey and Pedey 1 and 2, except for the times when your lead off hitter comes up in the bottom of the ninth and you need an HR. The bigger gain comes from putting Betts and JBJ in batting slots that will mazimize their RBI potential. More RBIs means more runs scored. Moreland has done a great job for us, but he is battling an injury and perhaps fatigue. HRam seems to be heating up a little, but I still like Betts and JBj up 3 and 4. Flip flop them anyway, but just bat them 3 & 4. Is it urgent they do so right away? Probably not, but why wait? JBj is hot as hell and Betts is a known second half hitter. I'd go with maybe this... 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) JBJ 4) Betts 5) HRam 6) Moreland/Travis 7) Beni 8) Vaz/Leon 9) Lin/Marrero I'd find a way to get Young into the line-up everytime we face a lefty starter. I might flip-flop a couiple players here and there based on splits or pitching match-ups.

I don't really think I am moaning and groaning. I'm stating my views and philosophies knowing full well that they know more than I do and are "right" more than I am. I'd prefer to have Betts batting 3rd or 4th. I said it's not an urgent issue. Is one allowed to respectfully and constructively disagree with Sox management on a few minor points without being labelled as a moaner or groaner?

There's no compelling reason to have Betts bat first. The fact that we started scoring more once we moved him to the 1 slot not only proves nothing, it has nothing to do with what is to come. We have better OBP players than Betts- three of them. Putting one of them up first loses nothing in terms of the most important part of batting 1st--getting on base. We have very few players on the team who have the power Bets has. Only Betts and JBJ have a SLG over .470. In this day and age, even .470 is not all that great. Moving Betts and JBJ to the 3-4 slots maximizes the skill needed in those slots- SLG and OBP. Also, how am I makinng a mountain out of a molehill when I said moving Betts is "not urgent"? I'm not screaming from the mountain tops that this is unacceptable. I think moving JBj to 3 or 4 is more important.

Of course it would be, but I'd pay more or get a slightly lesser skilled (younger) pitcher for the same money. It's insane to want to pay a pitcher from age 34 to 37 $31M a year, even if the market rises sharply.

soxprospects.com has updated their rankings while also inserting draft picks into the list: http://soxprospects.com/ #5 Tanner Houck #14 Cole Brannen #15 Alex Scherff

I think Dalbec and Chavis might be future 1B converts that would probably be ahead of Longhi as well.

Maybe the move Betts to 3rd or 4th tomorrow. Does that make some here wrong and us right? I think not.

I'll take what he has given, but I'm not going to be fooled into believing he will continue giving us plus offense.

Marrero has done well lately, but he's not a plus 3Bman. He's not even replacement level. The best way to improve our chances at winning is probably to turn a negative position into an average one or better. 3B is a huge problem despite the fact that Marrero has addressed the defensive issue at 3B and has seemingly convinced some here that he will hit well enough going forward that we can continue winning despite his weak bat.

I don't want Price at $31M from age 34 to 37, even if he coming off a Cy Young season and other teams will offer him more money. I don't care, if the market has risen to make him "worth it". I'd rather have a young stud.

Clearly you get more RBI chances batting 3rd than 1st, and even if you don't count the first inning. Betts isn't our best OBP guy either! It makes no sense putting your power guy up first, if he isn't even a top 2 OBP guy.

We're showing there are ways to win without a lights out offense led by 1-2 giant legendary mashers. Other teams have known this all along. I'm not saying this team is destined for a championship, or that our offense is good enough as is, but I like our chances, especially if ERod gets healthy and/or Porcello can get his act together. Pomernaz could also continue doing well enough that we don't need ERod and Porcello to do very well. I'm not counting on Carson Smith to help at all this year, and the pen has shocked me this year. I think we don't need to trade for a pen arm. I was dead wrong about our pen back in March. We're on pace for 92 wins. That's far short from my 100 win projection, but we're closer now than a few weeks ago.

Who here would have traded our Papi-less offense for TB's (on paper) before the season started? As well as Moreland has done, what if we signed Morrison instead?

Agreed, but there are probably several mid level prospects like Ockimey that GMs would take for an Aaron Hill type player. I'm just saying we may want to hold onto Ockimey slightly more than we did before the Longhi gtrade.

I get why they did it, but with a team lacking in power, I don't like having Betts up first. I'm not convinced batting Betts first was the reason our offense improved. I think it would have improved anyways. I don't think it's urgent to move Betts. I felt moving JBJ up was more urgent, and I'd like to see him up 3rd or 4th now.