moonslav59

Yes! He's done EVERYTHING!

Again, the choice will never be between Holt and Swihart. If it is, then it's a huge mistake. Swihart should make the 25 man roster and will get his chance to show his offense. Once (if) he establishes that, a position will find him.

We were 10th in AL LF WAR, 9th in 1B WAR and 9th in catcher WAR. I'm not seeing why Swihart should clearly be the #1 catcher, when he plays all three positions. Perhaps his greatest value lies in the fact that he can and will play all three positions. (Note: of all three positions, he may be worst defensively at catcher... may be...)

Depends on how well Moreland and/or Nunez are doing, and how well HRam is doing vs RHPs. I'm not saying I'd definitely bench HRam, if he's over .850, but the point remains, he won't be worth the $22M in 2019, even if he hits .900, and we'll end up losing Pom or worse by having HRam vest. I'd give Moreland (vs RHPs) and Swihart as many ABs as possible early in the year, and find out what Swihart has to offer (us or in trade).If HRam is at .850, and Moreland is hitting .750, I'll revisit the issue mid-season or late season, but I'm starting the season looking to limit HRam's PAs, until he proves something. It's not like the guy has proven jack s*** to this team. He's earned nothing. If anything, he's earned a spot on the bench, and this is coming from someone who thinks HRam will have a good year. Other here are saying we should DFA him or trade him while paying $20M of his salary. I don't want HRam on the team next year. I want to win it all this year. If I felt we needed HRam to winit all, of course I'd change my mind, but my mind needs to be changed before I say we should play HRam FT.

I'll be complaining, because I'll have very little confidence he will have back-to-back good+ seasons. The second reason will be that, even after a hypothetical good+ season this year, he still won'tbe worth close to $22M in 2019, a year where our budget will be even tighter than this year.

Is it any more deceiving than cherry-picking start and stop signs to make your point? Your point is well-taken. JBJ clearly has one 30 day very hot streak every year since becoming a regular. However, he's had decent to good stretches outside that 30-day stretch that you link to his cold stretches to make it look like he sucks 150 days a year and is great for just 30.

Update on Westmoreland.... http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/03/silverman_eight_years_later_ryan_westmoreland_eases_into_life_away_from

Monthly stats can be deceiving, but yes, they are interesting.

3 months over .770 last year. 4 months over .805 in 2016. 1 of 2 months over 1.000 in 2015. That's 8 of 14 his last 14 months over .770 and 7 of 14 over .805. Yes, maybe just one "great 30-day period" a year, but it's not like he always sucks the rest of the year. He's only been under .731 in 4 of the last 14 months.

It was one of his most consistent season. Too bad it was not very good offensively. However, he did have clear good months and clear bad ones, once again. .596 APR .808 May 1.009 June .596 July .770 Aug .517 Sept Yes, he seems to have 1 good/great month per season, but he usually has 1-2 good to decent ones mixed in as well; 2017: 1.009 in June, but also .808 and .770. (That's half the months over .770) 2016: 1.175 in May, but also .839, .807, .805 and .731 (hardly a one good month season, as 4 months were over .805!) 2015: He only played more than 6 games in 2 months- 1.163 and .739 (both not bad to great)

Usually utility player can field a position or two at or above replacement level defensively, or they can hit well enough to PH for weaker hitters on the team. Holt does not really do either of those two things. His ability to play 8 positions is his only true valuable commodity, despite not being to play any very well. Now that we have a DH who can play another position, that need for an 8 position utility player has diminished to some extent. Think of it this way, is there any position on our depth chart where you think Holt is good enough to be the number one sub, either short term or long term? To me, he's a "utility player" with very little utility. Here's my choice on our positional depth chart (AAA players maybe used in case of injury in parenthesis): 1B: HRam/Moreland-- Swihart (Travis long term) then Holt (Thoughts of using JD or Devers at 1B makes some sense.) 2B: Pedey-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt 3B: Devers-- Nunez, Hernandez, Marrero/Lin then Holt SS: Bogaerts-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt OF: (Beni & Betts can be shifted around to allow the sub to play LF in Fenway and RF away) Beni, JBJ, Betts-- JD, Swihart, Moreland then Holt When Holt was an all star, he was clearly our best sub at several positions, and we had a DH who only played DH (1B rarely in NL parks). Now, he's not.

Many teams might want Holt, but I'm not sue they think he's worth his contract. Marrero might not even be claimed, if he is DFA'd.

I meant AAA.

Makes me wonder why we offered him the arb. We could trade him and pay a portion.

Guys like Marrero (all glove- zero bat) are everywhere. I wouldn't be shocked if DM is traded or DFA'd, so Holt can be on the 25 man roster. Plus, we have Lin and Swihart to fill some IF needs. (Nunez will become available once Pedey returns.) Personally, I'd keep marrero and send Holt to AA to start the season, but I won't be upset, if Marrero is DFA'd. It's not going to come down to Holt vs Swihart.

The AL East is blessed with some great defensive OF'ers. It's no slight to be 3rd best out of this group. fangraphs stresses the importance of using 3 year sample sizes for UZR/150, especially for OF'ers who have much less chances than infielders. Here's the 3 year numbers: 11th among CF'ers with 2,000+ innings at +4.9 8th in Arm at +2.9 He's 7th in DRS. Kiermaier and Pillar are 1-2. I'm fine with JBJ being 3rd best to those two. +4.9 is easily "above average", but the numbers have to really shown greatness. I think the fact that he makes plays look easy hurts his ranking. He's not fast, but he gets great jumps and takes the right angle just about every time.

We got from April 4th to July 2nd without playing at an NL park, but then we play at Wash (July 2, 3, 4), at Philly (Aug 14 & 15) and at ATL (Sept 3, 4, 5). That's nicely spread out. We should try to plan getting JD outfield time in those NL parks to keep his bat in the line-up. He may not play all 12 NL away games, so he can get his normal days off on some of those dates. He'll likely play the OF in Miami in early April and then maybe a game here and there until July. Maybe JD starts 14-18 games in the OF, assuming no injuries. If 8 or so are in NL parks, that doesn't really create that many more PAs for Moreland or HRam. They both get to play only when JD plays the OF in AL parks. Barring injury, there should only be about 170 games where they start (8 where both start).

Yes, the way Buck was treated afterwards was a dark spot of the Sox fans reputation. Buck always gave it his all and without him, we don't even get to that awfull game.

Agreed, but some WPs are prevenatble with better defending catchers. (Not saying Vaz would have stopped all 4 or even 1.)

..or Stanley's WP, or...

Very well said.

A really good 1Bman vs a ho-hum one makes more of a difference than many think it does. Had we just brought Stapleton in for Buckner...

Fair enough. I think they always felt Swihart's bat deserved a longer look than he got after his premature call-up the previous season. I will say this, had Swihart hit .780 and not got hurt in LF, nobody would be saying anything right now.

He had 4 WPs and 3 PBs in 6 games at catcher in 2016. He had 2 PBs and no WPs in the game with Wright on April 10th. The next day, Price had 2 WPs and Tazawa one with Swi behind the plate. Robbie Ross had a WP the following game with Swihart, and that was it. (2 PBs and 4 WPs in his last 3 games as a catcher that year.)

I don't see it that way, but I sippose had Swihart gone 12-24 and looked okay on D, who knows. I still think Vaz was going to be the starter all along, so the whole point about finding another position for Swihart would have happened sooner or later, anyways.