moonslav59

Take 5 of 6 vs the Yanks and coast.

I agree. Last year's team won 6 in a row starting August 12th and then won 4 out of 6. We did end up playing the Yanks in 7 of our last 17 games. BAL & TOR were both 89-73 last year and we played them 13 of the last 23 games. 20 of our last 23 games were vs NYY, BAL & TOR, and though the Yanks were just 84-78 last year, they were pretty good going into SEPT (14-8 to end AUG and 7-2 to start SEPT). Once we reach Sept 4th, I think we have it easier than 2016. Although we end up with 4 at home vs HOU, they will have clinched by then and may be resting starters. Before that last series we play 0 vs the NYY (after 9/4), 6 vs TBR, 6 vs TOR, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs OAK and 3 @ CIN. The stretch from now to Sept 3 is very tough. It certainly helped to have a nice streak before this... 2 @ TBR 3 @ NYY 1 v CLE (make-up) 2 v StL 3 v NYY 4 @ CLE 3 v BAL 3 @ TOR 4 @ NYY Man O Man!

The first FT opening for a prospect, not surprisingly, turned out to be 3B. Devers has done a marvelous job so far, since his call-up. I can't imagine any current prospects ever leap-frogging him at 3B, but Rafael might eventually be moved to 1B (see below). HE certainly will not be moved to 1B, so Chavis can play 3B, and I doubt Dalbec ever get good enough to move Devers off 3B. No, I think Devers is our 3Bman for a long time. 1B (or DH, if we can trust HRam to play 1B FT next year- I don't) is the next FT position open for the Sox. My guess is we sign or trade for a big bat FA this winter. I can't see us counting on HRam at 1B/DH and some sort of major input from Sam Travis, Michael Chavis, Bryce Brentz, Jeremy Barfield or Josh Ockimey. (Devers and Dalbec could also eventually move to 1B, if we ever got a 3Bman that blocked them.) It's a nice list of choices, but most are at least a half year away to count on for 2018. No other FT positions should be open, but there should be some hefty competition for the bench positions: IF: Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero all have a shot at maybe one 25 man roster slot and 3 forty man roster slots. (I'm assuming Rutledge is toast.) Since Holt is the best in-house solution for our 4th OF'er opening, 2 or even 3 of these guys might be on the 25 man roster for much of 2018. I'd love to see us get a big bat 1Bman and bring Nunez back, but that might be wishful thinking. (Nunez could also DH while HRam plays 1B.) OF: Holt is JF's pet favorite, so I think he wins this slot over Brentz or Barfield. I doubt they try to move Chavis to LF, unless he bombs at the 1b experiment. I'm not convinced by Castillo's decent season for him to get a legitimate chance due to his high luxury tax cost. Danny Mars and Jeremy Barfield and maybe A Tavarez have an outside chance, but I think it will be Holt. (Swihart remains a long shot 4th OF option.) C: I think Leon will remain the back-up to Vaz. Swihart has an outside chance and maybe Butler will sign another minor league deal with us. Procyshen is too far away as is Flores. Our pitching staff likely will lose A Reed, Abad, Fister and Boyer. With Carson Smith and Thornburg on the 2018 radar, we may not seek outside help with our pen. The return of Steven Wright should also allow for a SP'er to begin the season in the pen. Here's how I see our pen shaping up next season, assuming all are healthy: RP1 Kimbrel RP2 Smith RP3 Thornburg RP4 J Kelly RP5 Barnes RP6 Wright RP7 Hembree (out of options) RP8 Workman RP9 Scott RP10 Maddox RP11 Taylor RP12 Martin RP13 B Johnson RP14 J Beeks RP15 N Ramirez, R Elias or H Owens (if they are still on the roster) Our SP'ers are all set until Pomeranz becomes a FA after 2018, and we might have Wright set to take his place. There's also Johnson, Beeks or maybe Groome as 2019 options at the 5 slot on the rotation. What are your thoughts?

You're probably right, but we could back end the deal to discourage that, or just keep is even and let him walk after 6. 6 is better than 3.

We're 63-49. Last year, we were 2 games worse (61-51). All this despite.... Betts having a worse OPS than any of his first 3 seasons: .805 2017 .812 2014 .820 2015 .897 2016 He's 92 points worse than last year. Bogey having his worst year since 2014. .776 2015 .802 2016 .740 2017 He's 62 points worse than last year Bradley having his worst year since 2014. .832 2015 .835 2016 .766 2017 He's 69 points worse than last year HRam is 97 points worse than last year Pedey is 34 points lower and injured. Beni only had 118 PAs last year, but he's 65 points below last year's OPS. Leon was expected to decline and is 163 points lower. Vaz is the only regular or semi-regular Sox returnee to have a better OPS this year, and it's by 116 points. Carson Smith has yet to pitch for the Sox in 2017. Thornburg never pitched a pitch. Our Cy Young winner, Porcello, has pretty much stunk up the place. Our $30 million dollar man, Price, has been hurt and ineffective. We lost our 5th starter, Wright, very early in the season. With all this seemingly going wrong, we're still better than last year's team at this time! I don't think it's being overly optimistic to thing maybe some of these minuses could turn into pluses over the next 2+ months. I'm very hopeful.

Maybe. The offer is really $250+M/7 after the arb years are taken away, and I said I might go higher. He might laugh, but about $35M a year is pretty hefty and he gets the security 3 years before he becomes a FA. That takes away a lot of the risk for him. I'm sure the Legacy Agency will know what to do. (They'd probably say "no".)

He'll be looking for 10-12 years not 3, but if that's what he wanted, you're probably right. My point was that if you are going to give $133M/3, why not add 4 more years at $117M? Assuming his 3 arb years count as $50M, that would be $300M/10 in total. $29M a year is a bargain compared to $45M a year.

It's not the one I would do, but I thought it might be one JF could be talked into. Mine would be... 1. Nunez DH 2. Pedey 3. Beni vs R/HRam v L 4. Betts 5. Devers 6. HRam v R/Young v L 7. JBJ v R/ Bogey v L 8. Bogey v R/ JBJ v L 9. Vaz

I didn't know that was a set team philosophy.

I'd be fine with Pedey or Nunez up 1st. I'd bat Betts 4th, but 2nd would be okay. 1. Pedey 2. Beni 3. Nunez 4. Betts 5. HRam 6. Devers 7. JBJ 8. Bogey 9. Vaz I might even flip Devers with HRam.

Your guys got Alonso for Boog Powell. Looks like Phelps might be damaged goods. Glad we passed on him.

Betts too.

No, the first line is RISP The second line titled "---" is all his combined PAs with no men on base. The third line , "men on base" is all the combined opportunities with any man on any base with any amount of outs. Betts has 110 PAs with RISP 190 with men on base 311 with no men on base (one big downfall with putting a very good hitter up first) He hits .404 with RISP. He's hit .223 with no men on base (.296 OBP- another reason not to have him lead off) He's hit .348 with men on base.

I doubt he got a memo saying bat Holt 2nd then first. It must be okay with the top brass batting Betts first, but there are some good reasons for him being there. There's no reason to bat Holt one or two when we have other better hitters.

I'll certainly understand, if the price is too high. I'd hate to lose these two. Same with Sale, but locking up SP'ers long term after a certain age is riskier.

I doubt we can even get him at 10 years. I seriously doubt we'd have any chance with 8, unless the numbers just blew him away. If we sign him to 10, he'll be just 34 for almost his full last season under contract. I'd go out of my way to try to make it happen this winter.

I've never seen the Sox play west of Texas. Some day....

I was dead-set on us not re-signing Ellsbury. After the signing, I said, "I wouldn't have paid him half that much." Damon could no longer play CF with that noodle arm. We had a LF'er and a DH. (Side note: Manny caught a lot of grief and laughs for cutting off Damon's throw from about 20 feet away, but only Damon could possibly throw a ball that could physically be cut off from that short of a distance away.)

I meant the top brass more than the manager. Obviously, JF is not cutting edge on anything I can see.

I'll never argue JBJ is better than Betts on deffense, but with a park like Fenway, having JBJ and Betts id CF and RF puts us at a huge advantage on defense. Even on the road, I'm not sure any team has a better one-two defensive punch at those key positions. Yes, we can replace JBJ with some other FA, but most FAs will be about the same age as JBJ, and if they are close to him in skill level, they will be just as costly. I'd like to lock up Betts and JBJ as long as the numbers aren't way way over board. Bogey is my "one man out", if I had to choose, and I think we will, if we want to keep Chris Sale around.

We're talking 10 years for a 24 year old. He'll be just 34 when the 10 year deal runs out. You know me KImmi, I'm big on discouraging large and long contracts, I've posted the lists of largest and longest contracts and showed how most failed to come close to expectations- often during the first years even, but those deals were all for free agents who were mostly over age 29 or 30.. If we wait 3 years, we'll probably have to offer 10 years anyways but to a 28 year old not a 25 year old to keep him here in Boston. IMO, Mookie is worth the risk.

The 6 years include 3 arb years which might pay him up to $50M total. You'd really sign him to $150M/3 for the following 3 years? Plus, the $33.3M luxury tax hit would be worse than my 10 year offer of $275M/10. I'd even prefer $300M/10 over $200M/6. Here's why: 1) Betts is young enough that his last 4 years are still close enough to prime to not worry too much. 2) The luxury tax hit would be lower by including the arb years in the extension (same with the $200M/6). 3) Contract costs in 6 years will likely be way higher than now, and Betts would likely get $350M/10 if he was a FA right now and 27 years old (not 24). Bottom line: try like hell to lock him up before he hits the open market. He's worth the risk. I don't see flame-out potential with Mookie. I hear 700's argument about "speed" guys and how they do not tend to hold top value pretty well, but Mookie has power, OB skills and is a tremendous defensive player beyond his speed.

I don't think anyone actually believes the ball rises. If they do, then maybe there's room for them in the Trump Administration. It's just a term for a ball that doesn't drop or appear to drop as much as expected or as it's supposed to drop.

Very true, but I think very few teams have developed less home-grown(good+) SP'ers than us over the last 10 years.

Fister & Young. It's nice to see Just about everyone getting some limelight recently.