moonslav59

You don't lose draft picks when signing QO free agents. You lose pool money and your pick might go down 10 picks depending on your spending situation. We'd go from maybe pick number 25 to 35. The pool money hurts, as this is where we've done well recently.

Yes, I meant Beni staying in LF. I do not think we spend some of the limited money we have on 2B, when Pedey might be back in 2 months, and we have Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero to carry us for 2 months. If none work out, we'll seek the next Nunez-type mid season replacement. We need power. I doubt we get it at 2B. I'm very sympathetic to the view of avoiding long term mega-deals, and Santana would be a very good choice, IMO. I'm not sure what Moose will get, but if we cna get him for 4 years (or even 5), he might be a better choice than JD at 6-7 years at his age. Stanton is young, however, and his contract is long, but it only runs to age 37. JD's deal will be almost entirely beyond prime years. (BTW, signinng Santana keeps Devers at 3B. Maybe you misspoke in your last sentence.)

$25M a year is much less than Harper will get on the open market. I get the idea of going under the limit is a priority, and it will be easier to do so this year than next. I'll ask you this, is there any way that you can get Stanton and stay under the limit? 1) The Marlins might pay part of his salary, if they can get a better return (which no team can do better than the Yanks) $22M Ellsbury $13M headley $13M Gardner $12.5M Robertson $8.5M S Castro I'm thinking the Yanks are at least considering "finding a way" to do both: get Stanton and reset the tax. 2) Can you cut salary elsewhere? (Trade and eat part of vet contracts you hold now.)

In theory, yes, but... 1) Some think it will not take many "chips" to get him, if the team takes on all the contract. 2) Signing JD will affect the international pool money and will lower our top draft pick. 3) Stanton is younger and has better numbers over a longer sample size than JD. 4) There is a less chance of Stanton bombing out than JD, IMO. That being said, I'm fine with either one. Both have their downsides. Both have tremendous upsides. My third choice is Santana.

Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

Can I say it now, or would I be jinxing things? We just might be getting.... Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

This could become something pretty amazing: 2016: Price 2017: Sale 2018: Stanton

MLBTR reports... Red Sox catcher prospect Daniel Flores passed away Wednesday over complications stemming from cancer treatment, but he was only diagnosed with the disease (testicular cancer) in late October, family friend Jose Salas Jr. told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “When we saw it was bad, we did CT scans, X-rays, and stuff, and it was way too late, it was already too late,” said Salas, who was also Flores’ trainer. “He was so strong that he wouldn’t feel pain. . . . There were no indications, nothing suspicious, no negligence, there was nothing. . . . I don’t know what to tell you.” Flores was playing in the Dominican Republic instructional league shortly before he received his diagnosis, which came after he complained of back pain, and teammate and pitching prospect Alex Scherff informed Speier that “you literally couldn’t have been able to see that he was in that condition at all. He completely dominates the game. He’s the best catcher I’ve ever seen, no doubt in my mind at all.” Speier’s piece, which further profiles Flores and includes more quotes from Salas and Scherff, is certainly worth checking out in full.

If Stanton really is "fed up with losing," the Sox look like the best team of the 4 in the hunt for Stanton. I'm still not buying the idea that these are the only 4 serious contenders for his services, but this is really encouraging. Last year: Sale. This year: Stanton. If only Price would bounce back to form.

I can't believe the Yanks and Dodgers aren't kicking the tries or waiting to swoop in at the last minute and steal the spotlight. I know both teams have expressed an interest in lowering payroll, but Stanton is "the man."

The numbers look right to me. We are estimated to come in at $190M before any signings or trades or DFAs. The key numbers: $7M to the luxury tax level. $27M to the second phase of the tax. $47M to the third phase of the tax.situation. I think the real cut off point is $46M as a one year push. Now, if we sign a bunch of guys for over one year deals, we may be looking at the second year penalty phase kicking in, unless we let guys like Kimbrel and Pom bolt without replacing them in kind. All the big name signings will be for more than one year, so I do think we'd prefer to not get too close to the third phase.

...and he should tell the other players to hit, pitch, field and run better. LOL.

You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.

Until he demonstrates he's willing to allow the Sox to become the Dodgers East, I'm going on the assumption there's a priority to keep the budget near the luxury limit most of the time. We've never had an opening day roster with a budget over $200M. We will likely break that streak in 2018, but I'm not sure we'll be over the luxury limit every year from here on out.

Please God, no! I'll give up beer for a year.

Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?

Even with the bum knees, he still was over .788 in his first 8 seasons- leading the league in games played for his first 3 seasons. He had an OPS over .855 for 5 out of 6 years. He also had over 90 RBIs in 5 of his first 7 seasons with the only two falling short, being his injury years.

Dice-K was 33-15 over his first two seasons (3.70 ERA) with a 5.5 WAR. He had the 17th best ERA- at 81 for those two years. He nibbled the corners too much and walked too many guys, but he was pretty good out of the gate. Man, did he suck afterwards.

If we take the whole salary, it shouldn't take Beni.

Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh. 31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels. Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA. Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?

They are saying HRam will be good to go at 1B, so JD could DH and be our 4th OF'er. It's actually a nice fit, as long as HRam can play 1B. I still might give JD some reps at 1B- just in case. He might also play there in NL parks, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.

They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix. I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close. I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

Possible games of team control left: JBJ: 480 Beni: 800

I liked Matsui and Abreu, too.

One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax. It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.