moonslav59

I tried to just count major/key players or big contracts plus a few role players. I didn't include Thornburg, because he never pitched for us and is recovering from a very serious injury. Here's an updated & expanded look... Current Core of this team: (Note: "to keep him" could also mean to replace him with a similar level player through free agency.) Kimbrel $13M then $18M to keep him (+$5M) Pomeranz ~9M then $19M to keep him (+$10M) Sale $25.5M + $13.5M then over $30M to keep him (+$18M) Bogey ~$7M & $12M then maybe $22M to keep him (+$10M)(+$15M from 2018's salary) Porcello $21M + $21M then maybe $16M to keep him (-$4M) Betts ~$10M, $15M, $20M then $28M+ to keep him (+8M) (+$18M from 2018) JBJ ~$6M, $10M, $14M then maybe $18M to keep him (+$4M) (+$12M from 2018) Pedroia $13.75M until the end of 2021 Price $31M until the end of 2022 Beni: 5 years of control (3 are arbs) Devers: 5+ years of team control (3+ are arbs) Role Players: Kelly ~$4M then maybe $7M to keep him (+3M) Thornburg $2.05M + 1 more arb (hard to project) Holt ~$2M then 1 more arb (DFA?) Vaz ~$1.5M then 2 arbs Smith ~$1M then 2 arbs Leon ~2.5M then 2 arbs Wright ~$1M + 2 arbs Workman ~$1M + 2 arbs ERod ~$4M + 3 arbs Not Yet At Arb Barnes & Hembree 1 the 3 arbs Swihart 1 then 4 arbs Scott, Hernandez, Marrero 2 then 3 arbs Arb Years Not Set Lin, Maddox, Travis, Velazquez, Johnson, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Shepherd, Buttrey, Jerez, Owens Sunken Cost Coming Off the Books HRam $22M after 2018 or 2019 (if he vests) Pablo $19M to $5M for 2020 then zero for 2021 Castillo (off luxury tax) $11.8M, $11.8M & $14.3M Of course, we do not need to keep everyone to be competitive, and we could replace some of these players with lesser cost free agents. If my projections are wrong, and players will not be making what I estimated, it would also mean their value has fallen due to poor performance between now and then. I'm looking at over $55M more needed (after last arb or year of salary) to keep everyone and fill no holes that might open elsewhere. It will likely be more than $80M from their 2018 salaries. Subtract the sunken costs from HRam/Pablo & Castillo and it doesn't look horrible, but it will still take a massive increase in our budget to keep everyone or replace them in kind.

I guess if Thornburg looks fully recovered, and Smith looks good, I'd consider trading Kimbrel, but I'm 99.9% certain DD wont even think about it. I'd also like to see what we'd get for him before saying it's a good idea. Another thing to think about: how many comp picks have we gotten recently? (Answer: 1 in the last 5 drafts in Kopech.) We could just look to get a comp pick for Kimbrel (and maybe Pom as well).

Sounds about right.

Nope.

We also have a history of winning a ring with our third string closer in 2013 (Uehara).

Kimbrel has been a fantastic closer for us. I am not trying to imply otherwise. He was still "good enough" in 2016, even at his salary, which I felt was too high at the time.

No, it doesn't, but I was responding, in part, to a poster who spoke of some of the suggested one year fix alternatives I mentioned back at the time of the Kimbrel trade, so what Kimbrel did in 2016 was important to that conversation.

We traded for 3 years of Kimbrel. He gave us a decent 2016 and a fantastic 2017. Why do people just look at 2017 to judge him and the trade? Same with Pom. 2018 may be the ultimate factor in judgment.

While I think spending large is not the best idea, I think DD wants a big splash and isn't worried about 3 years from now. As long as Henry is okay with going over the luxury tax by over $25M, I think he'll do it- either with JD and a pitcher or 3-4 mid range FA.

...and 2016?

True, but I was never advocating a bad bullpen. Also, a great pen will get you nowhere, if you have lousy starters.

The idea was to get Quintana or Carrasco not a closer, and then yes, go "cheap" on a closer. 50-65 innings from a closer are important, but I'll take 190-210 from an excellent starter instead.

He will get JD and end up 1 for 3.

KRod and Clippard were some of my suggestions, yes, but you are neglecting to mention the rest of my suggestion: use the players we gave for Kimbrel, add others and get Sale or Quintana (or Carrasco) back then. We could possibly have Quintana and Sale with an average or better closer right now, or we could have struck out totally. I get the risk. I do think closers making $13M a year should not cost 4 prospects, even now with the inflated costs of closers. Margot was not a "marginal prospect", and several GMs seems to adhere to the notion that closers are not as valuable as some non analytic minded, non trendy fans seem to think they are. Plus, Kimbrel was not all that great in 2016, anyways.

No, and that's why he won't do it, even though Kimbrel is just under control for 1 more year with 2 or 3 more years (of the "window") to go afterwards without him.

I just don't see it happening, even if we sign Shaw and another good RP'er. IMO, trading Kimbrel is not on DD's mind. It doesn't fit the win now plan.

He may slip, but he won't fall.

So, DD misses out on Othani & Stanton. I think we get JD. DD likes big splashes.

For our sake, I hope it's an NL team, but if not Seattle would be fine with me.

Imnot' doubting this, but where is all this coming from?

I hope you are right.

Maybe the extra time given to GMs to decide on what is right for their teams will allow us to avoid making any free agent mistakes. We sure could use some good luck with free agents for once.

I hope we don't trade JBJ, even if we sign JD Martinez. I'd just DH Martinez and hope HRam can play 1B full time. If he ends up getting hurt, we'll save the vesting option and find a c heap 1Bman mid season. (Again, I'd consider signing Duda or M Adams as 1b insurance. I'm not that high on Travis or Swihart at 1B.) Maybe just sign JD, Bryan Shaw and a couple cheap 5/6 starter type vets.

True, but in theory, we'd have likely had other players in their place at a lesser cost. What was the fWAR for Pom & Kimbrel in 2016?

Since the closer role seems to have increased its value exponentially since we signed Kimbrel, we might end up getting close to what we gave up for him 2 winters ago. We can't afford to trade Pom, and Kelly is the only other significant last season player on the roster. He's not bringing back top prospects.