moonslav59

The numbers look right to me. We are estimated to come in at $190M before any signings or trades or DFAs. The key numbers: $7M to the luxury tax level. $27M to the second phase of the tax. $47M to the third phase of the tax.situation. I think the real cut off point is $46M as a one year push. Now, if we sign a bunch of guys for over one year deals, we may be looking at the second year penalty phase kicking in, unless we let guys like Kimbrel and Pom bolt without replacing them in kind. All the big name signings will be for more than one year, so I do think we'd prefer to not get too close to the third phase.

...and he should tell the other players to hit, pitch, field and run better. LOL.

You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.

Until he demonstrates he's willing to allow the Sox to become the Dodgers East, I'm going on the assumption there's a priority to keep the budget near the luxury limit most of the time. We've never had an opening day roster with a budget over $200M. We will likely break that streak in 2018, but I'm not sure we'll be over the luxury limit every year from here on out.

Please God, no! I'll give up beer for a year.

Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?

Even with the bum knees, he still was over .788 in his first 8 seasons- leading the league in games played for his first 3 seasons. He had an OPS over .855 for 5 out of 6 years. He also had over 90 RBIs in 5 of his first 7 seasons with the only two falling short, being his injury years.

Dice-K was 33-15 over his first two seasons (3.70 ERA) with a 5.5 WAR. He had the 17th best ERA- at 81 for those two years. He nibbled the corners too much and walked too many guys, but he was pretty good out of the gate. Man, did he suck afterwards.

If we take the whole salary, it shouldn't take Beni.

Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh. 31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels. Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA. Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?

They are saying HRam will be good to go at 1B, so JD could DH and be our 4th OF'er. It's actually a nice fit, as long as HRam can play 1B. I still might give JD some reps at 1B- just in case. He might also play there in NL parks, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.

They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix. I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close. I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

Possible games of team control left: JBJ: 480 Beni: 800

I liked Matsui and Abreu, too.

One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax. It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.

Word is they may pay part of his deal. I bet they'd rather have Castillo than Pay $35M cash.

So, when you respond, it's not "the last word". When I do, it is. Okay. One reason I keep repeating it, is because people keep misrepresenting it.

Nobody is saying Henry is going to cut back on the salary budget. I will say, he's never had an opening day roster above $200M. I think he will in 2018. He could be at $220M by 2021, and we will still have to say good bye to several big impact players before then just to stay at $220M. Yes, maybe we can do alright with several $5-7M players, but we're going to need some significant input from the farm. I guess what gets me the most is that it seems like, and I'm not linking all cliff deniers together, those who had no issue with trading away prospects, because we can't count on them to do anything anyways, especially the single A prospects, are now putting faith in our current farm system to help solve the problem in 2021. A farm that is much lower ranked than it was 1-2 years ago. I'm not saying our farm is totally depleted, but I feel like we are going to need more than 3 or 4 current prospects doing well in 2021. I hope to hell I'm wrong. I'm hopeful we can avoid last place finishes or even losing records, but I just don't see the probabilites being all that great for us to be contenders, even with a budget of $220M paying.... $31M Price $13M Pedey $32M Sale $27M Betts $22M Bogey $20M Kimbrel $18M Pom and JBJ That's $180M in just 8 players. (That's not counting who we sign this winter.) + Arbs for Beni, Devers and others

I think he just wants in now. I can't blame him. We tend to think it's all about money, and who knows how much he can make here with endorsements, but playing in the best baseball league in the world is every baseball player's dream. That being said, just because he's turning down a lot of money by coming to the bigs now, doesn't mean he won't grab the best deal offered. I doubt we get him. I'm not trying to sound cold and heartless here, but we spent $3.1M on Flores. I wonder what better chance we'd have had for Otani, had we not signed Flores.

I respect your opinion, but I think even if you don't believe in the cliff, you must feel we might have a good chance at winning a ring in the next year or two. Beyond that doesn't really involve how we see Devers growing at 3B on defense. By then, we should know, if he's going to stick or not, anyways. I do not think we will win a ring or lose depending on our 3B defense. There's hardly ever just one area that makes or breaks a season. I do, however, think it could be a factor in winning the division vs a wild card. I do think we could lose a key playoff game due, in part, to an error by Devers. Like I said, I'm not looking for ways to move Devers to 3B. I'm fine with him staying at 3B, if we can seriously boost our offense at 1B somehow. I do not see Hosmer as a good choice. He will cost too much and want too many years. He's not a significant power upgrade over Moreland. I'd be fine keeping Devrs at 3B, if we get JD, Stanton or even Santana, but if we can't get one of those three, and trade options involve opening new holes, then I'll take Moose over Hosmer 100%. Moose is noit my plan A, B or C, so I'm not sure why people are acting like moving Devers is my top priority. It isn't. Moose offers way more raw power than Hosmer. We'd surely be better on defense for at least a year or two. That's all I'm saying. The "urgency" part of my argument is not the over-riding factor in choosing Moose over Hosmer, and who knows, maybe Devers moves back to 3B from 1B/DH in 2-3 years, even if we sign Moose. Moose might be moved to 1B in year 2-3 of his 4-5 year deal.

I'd even add Beeks or Shawaryn or Travis (assuming we add a 1Bman).

I'm not sure. He had a .548 OPS and missed a lot of time. I get the fact that the next arb year means an auto raise, but if ever there was a player that did not deserve one based on previous year performance, it would be Brock. I'm thinking at $2M, we might want to trade him, but with Pedey out and no 4th OF'er at the moment, I'd hold off.

I joined late- my bad. Laimbeer was at ND while I was there. He was Digger's whipping boy.

Projected arb salaries: Joe Kelly – $3.6MM Drew Pomeranz – $9.1MM Tyler Thornburg – $2.1MM Brock Holt – $2.0MM Xander Bogaerts – $7.6MM Jackie Bradley – $5.9MM Sandy Leon – $2.1MM Steven Wright – $1.2MM Mookie Betts – $8.2MM Brandon Workman – $900K Christian Vazquez – $1.5MM Carson Smith – $1.1MM Eduardo Rodriguez – $2.7MM

Just throwing something out here... Trade: HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit Chavis (prospect) JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018) Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M For: Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter. Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates. We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue. 1. Bogey SS 2. Betts RF 3. Martinez LF/DH 4. Cruz DH/LF 5. Beni CF 6. Santana 1B 7. Devers 3B 8. Pedey 2B 9. Vaz C (I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)