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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    There are certainly flaws in UZR/150 and WAR, but to me the flaw with personal comparative player skill analysis and the "eye test" is greater (maybe with some players or positions more than others). It's weird that Swihart has 6 innings on defense and has a number. JBJ has 15 innings in RF and it is blank. Also, I'd have categorized the catch he made in RF the other day as "impossible" not "remote", so I'm sure subjectivity plays a role in their categorizing play difficulty through "eye test" observations. After all, it seems like UZR/150 is just a massive amount of "eye test" observational scores entered into a computer program. I can't and don't watch hardly any other baseball but Sox games. There's no way I could ever say for sure, "JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB, today!" UZR/150 and DRS tries to quantify eye test observations from trained observers who do watch every play of every game. I think the idea is a good one, but it does have flaws. Maybe someday, there will be a way to objectively rate and rank defense. It's not quite there, yet.
  2. moonslav59
    The thing is, JBJ has not always been horrible vs LHPs. vs LHPs/ vs RHPs 2018: .432/ .731 (just 12 PAs vs LHPs) 2017: .766/ .713 2016: .673/ .902 2015: .918/ .791 Career: .698/ .735 JBJ probably has one of the narrowest career lefty-righty differential on the team. (I think Holt's might be the narrowest.)
  3. moonslav59
    It does seem like accurate throwing might be the easiest skill to improve. You don't learn instincts. You don't learn quick reflexes. You don't learn anticipation. I've never doubted he may become an average or better defender. My concern was for him to go through his learning curve during a heated championship run. It was expected that we'd have a run for our money winning the division, and any game or two lost due to poor 3B defense might be one of the difference makers. I'm fine with giving him a shot. With Moreland signed for 2 years and Travis making statements about his skill level, it looks like he'll get a real long look at 3B.
  4. moonslav59
    I guess when you compare him to JBJ and Betts, then it's a striking differential. When Pedey comes back, Nunez may be squeezing into the LF conversation.
  5. moonslav59
    Wharf Rats
  6. moonslav59
    Not every mid or southern state is warm in April.
  7. moonslav59
    So was I!
  8. moonslav59
    Maybe some hard luck... 2018 BAbip .422 JMart .414 Bogey .373 Betts .367 Moreland .354 HRam .353 Devers .295 MLB average .288 Beni .262 Vaz .255 Nunez .250 Holt .245 JBJ (JBJ is 7th out of 12 on the hard hit% list at 32% and has hit the ball "softly" only 10% of the time -- 3rd best on the team.)
  9. moonslav59
    They've had one of MLB's top offenses so far this season, but then again, so did the Angels.
  10. moonslav59
    Not really. I think he was just about 50 points higher than his career OPS in 2013.
  11. moonslav59
    Even that would be a gross exaggeration.
  12. moonslav59
    I like Lin, but I doubt he ends up being above .675 in career OPS.
  13. moonslav59
    He is not this good.
  14. moonslav59
    It's not worthless, for sure, but yes, it has flaws. We all know a good or great play when we see it, and certainly the "eye test" is valid, but we don't get to "eye test" everyone else in MLB, so any comparative analysis will be flawed.
  15. moonslav59
    Yes. He has just two chances in 6 innings- both routine. What bugs me more is JBJ's -28.8 OF UZR/150. He's got no RF rating despite 15 innings and an impossible catch they called "remote". In 128 innings in CF, they have him down for ... 34 routine 1 likely 3 remote Seems like he's made more than 4 non-routine plays in CF this year.
  16. moonslav59
    He's played 6 innings and has just 2 routine outs. I guess you need to do something better than routine to be a plus.
  17. moonslav59
    Won't other teams' starters "improve with the weather" as well?
  18. moonslav59
    I fell asleep after the 8th. I watched the 9th this morning. Man 'o Man, this team is grooving!
  19. moonslav59
    But what really prompted the thread was Jed Lowrie's resurgence. I could understand pining for Rizzo or Beltre and maybe someday Moncada or Margot, but Jed Freakin' Lowrie? I'd rather have Devers, Bogey, Pedey & Nunez.
  20. moonslav59
    He will crash down to earth at some point.
  21. moonslav59
    If it's after, he'll never be moved.
  22. moonslav59
    On the non-pitching side of the roster, assuming we keep 12 pitchers on the 25 man roster, here's how a rank the 2018 value of our current p-layers, assuming 100% health: Out of options in RED 1. Betts 2. JMart 3. Devers 4. Bogey 5. Beni 6. Ramirez 7. Bradley 8. Pedroia 9. Vazquez 10. Nunez 11. Moreland 12. Leon 13. Swihart 14. Hernandez 15. Lin 16. Holt 17. Travis Again, our #12 and #13 are out of options and our number 10-11 are too important to send to AAA to keep 12 & 13. Something might have to give here as well. I'm happy with the top 13 being "the 13", but Holt seems to be a team favorite, so someone might get traded, so he can stay on the 25.
  23. moonslav59
    I've always liked Hembree and hope we can keep him. That hope might depend on Thornburg staying on the DL, or someone else going on the DL. Yes, time will tell. There's no rush to trade anybody, until a major squeeze is near. Here's how I rank our pitchers, when healthy, by 2018 value assuming full health: Out of options in RED 1. Sale 2. Price 3. Porcello 4. Kimbrel 5. Pomeranz 6. Rodriguez 7. Smith 8. Thornburg 9. Barnes 10. Kelly 11. Wright 12. Hembree 13. Johnson 14. Velazquez 15. Poyner 16. Workman 17. Walden 18. Scott 19. Maddox 20. Elias/Beeks/Haley/Buttrey Since #11, 12 & 13 are out of options, one could get squeezed. It seems like #1-10 will not be sent to AAA to allow an out of options player to stay on the roster. Again, I doubt all of our top 13-15 pitchers will all be healthy at the same time, but it could happen for a short stretch.
  24. moonslav59
    Let me word it this way, How many are there that drafted a HS player in 2016 with their first pick?
  25. moonslav59
    Out of options players could force a move. It's doubtful we will have every single player healthy at one exact time, but if it happens, we may have to trade Hembree or Wright. Holt has an option,
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