moonslav59

Word is, SF is looking to stay under the luxury limit, and their about $2M under right now, so unless they cut salary somehow, I don't see them in on JD.

Kinda like the Rays who turn journeymen into top producing 1Bmen... Carloe Pena Kotchman Morrison

The Rays biggest strength is choosing the right young players to extend early and getting them to agree. They are also very good at choosing the exact right time to let players go by trading them or getting comp picks. Many of their past players have career years with the Rays and then go elsewhere and suck. Another thing they often get right is signing cheap (sometimes even journeymen) free agents who go on to have career years. They may do better with lower round picks, but I listed the many top picks chosen in the legendary 2011 draft, and here are others: 2017: Brendan McKay (4) [39th in BA 2018] 2016: Josh Lowe (10) 2015: Garrett Whitley (13) 2014: Casey Gillaspie (20) 2013: Nick Ciuffo (21) & Ryne Stanek (29) 2012: Ricjie Shaffer (25) 2010: Joshua Sale (17) 2009: LeVon Washington (30) 2008: Tim Beckham (1) 2007: David Price (1) 2006: Evan Longoria (3) 2005: Wade Townsend (8) 2004: Jeff Niemann (4) 2003: Delmon Young (1) 2002: BJ Upton (2) 2001: Dewon Brazelton (3) They have struck gold on draft picks, mostly long ago, when they had top picks, but I would not say it is their strength.

Big if, but if LoMo could hit 38 HRs again in 2018, it would be an inexpensive but significant upgrade.

I totally agree. They've been very competitive per dollar spent. They were masters of the system of gaining supplemental picks. Here's an example of them at their best (but note how many of these picks have not produced): 2011 Draft--10 picks in the top 60! 1 (24) Taylor Guerrieri (for losing Carl Crawford) 1 (31) Mikie Mahtook (for Rafael Soriano) 1 (32) Jake Hager 1S (38) Brandon Martin (for Soriano) 1S (41) Tyler Goeddel (for Crawford) 1S (42) Jeff Ames (for Grant Balfour) 1S (52) Blake Snell (for Brad Hawpe) 1S (56) Kes Carter (for Joaquin Benoit) 1S (59) Grayson Garvin (for randy Choate) 1S (60) James Harris Jr (for Chad Qualls) 2 (75) Granden Goetzman (for Balfour) 2 (89) Lenny Linsky This was shockingly unprecedented, but largely squandered.

They've had a lot of top 100 misses, though.

I'll be mildly shocked, if we don't sign JD. I doubt he gets more than $125M/5 or $135M/6

Seems out two top 100 kiddos look better to law than BA.

Players 25 and under Boston: Betts Bogey ERod Beni Devers NYY Judge Sanchez Montgmoery Severino Torreyes Bird Frazier HOU Bregman Fisher McCullers Correa CLE Ramirez Lindor Meritt

True, but if the Yanks did not call up Judge and Sanchez, and the Astros didn't call up Bregman and...

I can't see AZ topping $100M/5, so how can they come close to $125M? I'm thinking we are by ourselves. I hope DD doesn't bid against himself. We seemed 6to plan our luxury tax reset just right, and this is the opportunity to capitalize on the fact that NY and LA are not in the heavy bidding wars. We will likely not be able to sign big next winter, so this is it.

Kinda scary when out top competition in the AL this year also has so many more top and or better prospects... NYY: 6, 38, 41, 59, 77, 81 HOU: 10, 15, 62, 76 CLE: 20, 33 BOS: 83, 85 (Also, 6 of the top 21 prospects are in the AL East- none with the Sox.)

Giants sign Austin Jackson ($6M). I doubt they are in the hunt for JD. Who is left? BOS AZ TOR

Moustakas shouldn't either. He's coming off his best season and would be competing with Machado, Beltre and Donaldson next winter. (This might be a reason why nobody he seriously interested in him this winter.)

It doesn't work that way, but your point is well-taken.

It might not be as "new" as people think. Chavis was injured early in his pro career.

Yes, Chavis could be fast-tracked, if HRam or Moreland bomb or get hurt. I can't see Chavis playing 3B or 2B this year in Boston.

Is the $140M/7 confirmed and still on the table?

Right now, nobody is talking to Moose. His price may drop way down. He could play 3B and Devers could DH/1B. If we don't get JD, I'd look at LoMo or Moose with Duda as a secondary option. If we end up with Duda, I'd spend the rest of the money on Cobb or Lynn, despite their "issues".

Or, add a $20M option with a $5M buyout, essentially making it a $130M/6 for tax purposes and $130M/5 in reality.

Chavis might be ML ready by summer... as a DH. He might be ready by fall to play 1B. I seriously doubt anyone in the organization is even thinking of Chavis playing 2B. His defense was so bad at 3B, they are trying him at 1B. He's not playing 2B.

Duda might get $7M x 2.

Maybe we have differing views on what the word "elite" means, but Hosmer ranks 12th out 31 1Bmen in WAR since 2014. He's not even top third at his position. He's not bad, but at that money, we should get true "elite". Here are some other 1Bmen numbers from the last 4 years combined: (Think of the difference in contract amounts between these players listed.) 31 1Bmen with 1500+ PAs ISO 4. Duda .242 18. LoMo .196 23. Moreland .187 29. Hosmer .160 SLG 8. Duda .480 18. Hosmer .449 24. Moreland .438 (just .011 behing Hoze) 25. Morrison .438 UZR/150 (31 with 2000+ innings) 2. Moreland 6.4 20. L Duda 0.1 24. Morrison -1.3 25 Hosmer -1.9 WAR 12. Hosmer 7.4 13. Duda 6.9 (Might sign for $15M/2) 18. Morrison 4.7 28. Moreland 2.9 If we don't get JD, we should sign a solid pitcher (Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb) plus Duda or Morrison (or maybe Nunez).

You don't even blink at the fact that half his seasons are crappy, and he's only had one somewhat "elite" season? You don't even blink at his crappy defense? You don't even blink at the fact that we need power more than anything, and Hosmer is one of the worst power hitting 1Bmen in the league? Look, he's better than Moreland on offense and overall. If your sold on one year wonders, why not advocate for LoMo? He'll probably sign for 2-3 years at close to half what you want to offer Hoze. BTW, probably as many writers called Pablo "elite" as Hosmer.

Yes, that could happen, too. Hopefully, we don't get caught without an good option B, if we miss out on JD, but I can't see DD letting that happen. Something will happen soon.