moonslav59

Most GMs do not look at just the most recent one year sample size. Leclerc sucked in 2016 and 2017. That being said, I don't think Chavis is enough to get Leclerc. Maybe Chavis and Shawryn could get it done.

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $15M x 4 Eovaldi $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $15M x 4 Eovaldi $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton $11M x 3 J Familia $11M x 3 Z Britton $11M x 3 Robertson $11M x 3 Ryu $10M x 3 Ottavino $9M x 3 A Miller $9M x 3 J Kelly $8M x 1 Herrera $12M x 2 Gio Gonzalez $11M x 2 A Sanchez $11M x 2 M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $9M x 2 J Soria $7M x 6 Y Kikuchi $8M x 2 L Lynn $8M x 2 C Allen $7.5M x 2 D Holland $8M x 1 Sabathia $6M x 2 B Norris $6M x 2 B Brach $6M x 2 W Miley $5M x 2 G Richards $5M x 2 J Chavez $6M x 1 E Santana $6M x 1 Pomeranz

You don't like Ottavino enough to include him on your list?

I'm thankful you pointed out my faulty lingo. I do think there are varying degrees of asking for what they want, in terms of who their catcher should be. I think if a pitcher is very forceful in his wishes and the numbers back him up, any good manager would listen and probably do what the pitcher wants, because it is what is best for the team anyways.

In reality, the majority of the 25 man roster is already set, with DD having limited resources to replace key losses and to reduce risks. A subject that might be discussed is what Cora and the Sox should discuss with the players as avenues of improvement. I don't have a lot in mind at this point but would suggest a couple. 1. Dever should work on his weight and trim down a little. He has the body type that is broad to start with and at a listed 239 pounds and around 6 feet tall he was over what he should have been as an infielder. If he could trim down to 220 or 215 it could help his range and maybe avoid later joint issues. If he can get down to 225-230, and stay there, it would probably be enough. I'm expecting a significant improvement with Devers (and Nunez) at 3B next year, regardless of weight loss or gain. The weight issue is probably more about long term production from Rafael. 2. Beni has nice swing mechanics but I notice far too many balls fouls off to his left and a lot of weakly hit balls to left field. I would like to see him develop more ability to hit to all fields. He is a young player and it would help his game. This makes sense, but messing with a player's swing who improved his OBP to .366 this year and has a career .806 OPS at age 23 (and 1400+ PAs), is asking for trouble. I'm fine with having a lefty that loves to go opposite field. I'd like to see him spread out the hits, but I think Beni will improve, as is. 3. E-Rod has been said to have great stuff but he continued throughout the year to nibble around the edges of the plate and often going deep into counts and walking batters. The result was a 5 inning pitcher. If he truly has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter he needs to change his approach to get deeper into games. Watching ERod pitch is extremely frustrating, and he taxes our pen more than any other top starter on the staff. He has, perhaps, the nastiest stuff on the staff, but nibbles too much for anybody's liking. The team did go 19-4 in his starts (20-4 counting the playoffs). To me, just stay healthy, and we'll be fine here. 4. JBJ is a great fielder with a marginal hitting capability. At his age and experience level, I believe it is what we see is what we will continue to get. He did contribute to the Sox in the PO's and that is enough. He contributed on offense much longer than just the playoffs. JBJ showed major strides towards finding the consistency us Sox fans have been dreaming of for years. We could see a major uptick from JBJ, if he just continues what he did over the last 4.5 months of the year. JBJ's last 102 games (May 20th on): 393 PAs .260 BA .333 OBP .460 SLG .793 OPS 11 HRs 50 RBI/58 Runs Over his last 81 games (303 PAs) .273 10 44 (prorated to 20 HRs and 88 RBIs) .834 OPS Maybe JBJ has finally found the groove he needs to stay in. I don't have other comments, thinking what the players do is already the best we can expect from them. I just would want these players to maintain a good workout plan and stay in shape for the upcoming season. I remember last year, after just about every Sox player, except Vazquez declined from their 2016 numbers, several posters said somethings like this, "Maybe, our players just aren't all that good and these numbers reflect who they really are." We had young players on the upside of their age curve declining, and as I and others expected, they returned to their expected upswing. Will that continue? Will their be a "correction" based on the notion that many over performed this year? My guess is that not very one of our younger players will get even better next year, but overall (combined), I think they will. Plus, we are no longer counting on these players that were/are past their primes: 34 HRam 34 Pedey 35 Pearce 36 Kinsler 37 Phillips Our oldest returning (under team control) everyday players are: 32 Moreland (a platoon 1Bman) 31 Nunez (a utility player, but may get over 550 PAs next year) 30 JD Martinez 30 B Holt None of these guys are past prime. On the pitching side, our oldest returnees are: 33 Wright 32 Price 30 Brasier 29 Porcello 29 Sale 29 Velazquez 29 Hembree 29 Workman 29 Thornburg 29 Walden I'm pretty optimistic going into this winter.

You're right. "Demand" was not a term I should have used.

All these guys were projected by MLBTR to get 2 year deals, that's why I listed them. Coday Allen does project to less than half Kimbrel's cost ($8M per to $17.5M per). I could see us signing Morton, Allen and Pearce to two year deals and a reset of the tax for the 2021 season.

N'Western might give ND a run for their money.

If we are looking to reset after 2020 (more likely) what about these 2 year players? $16M Morton or $12 M Gio Gonzalez? Plus... $8M Cody Allen and $5M Jesse Chavez?

If we are looking to reset the tax after 2019 (doubtful IMO), then how about signing 3-4 of these projected one year players? $10M Dozier $8M Herrera $8M Sabathia (another lefty?) $6M E Santana Maybe Harvey, Ryu or Cody Allen would take a 1 year deal to try and reset their value.

The pitcher performance levels between Leon and Swihart and Vaz and Swihart are frighteningly significant in almost all cases involving our starters. Those who want to dump Leon and make Swihart the back-up should be prepared to defend that choice by showing his offense projects to make up the difference. The differentials between Leon and Vaz are less significant, but with Sale one could argue, it's worth keeping Leon just as Sale's personal caddy alone. Career ERA for Sale with.... Leon 2.42 (319 IP) Vaz 3.40 (53 IP) Swihart (Zero IP with Blake) Price did well with Vaz this post season, but here are the career numbers: 2.83 w Leon (194 IP) 4.32 w Vaz (263 IP) 5.73 w Swihart (11) Porcello: 4.14 w Leon (483) 4.15 w Vaz (134) 4.59 w Swihart (118) ERod 4.00 Leon (99) 4.08 Swihart (71) 4.24 Vaz (276) Wright 3.35 Vaz (97) 4.06 Swihart (71) 5.59 Leon (56) I guess one could argue Swihart would be okay with ERod and Wright and maybe Porcello as well, so if used correctly, he would not hurt the staff that much, but if you take away Leon from these trends, you should expect significant declines from Sale and Price, even if only Vaz catches them.

I agree, and when I mentioned the word "demand," it was in the context of what I would be okay with and not what I thought was going on. In Sale's case, I'd be okay with him demanding that Swihart never catch him to start a game. I probably would not be okay with him saying he demands Leon over Vaz, unless he has a very good reason.

Not only are owners making huge money off baseball, the value of their teams, when they go to sell them, are extremely higher than when they bought them. That gives them the sense that they can spend to win. Then, you might have some owners who don't care if their team loses money, they just want the status as a winning owner in the sports world.

I might try... $15M Eovaldi $10M Ottavino and hope we can squeeze Pearce in. or... $11M Familia $8M Cody Allen $7M Kikuchi Save $4M for in-season acquisition(s)

For argument's sake, let's assume the Sox have $30M to spend this winter and the 2019 season, and every FA would agree to sign with us at the amount MLBTR projects. Who would you sign? SP: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton $15M x 4 Eovaldi $12M x 2 G Gonzalez $11M x 3 Ryu $11M x 2 A Sanchez $11m x 2 M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $8M x 2 L Lynn $8M x 1 Sabathia $7.5M x 2 D Holland $7M x 6 Yusei Kikuchi $6M x 2 B Norris $6M x 2 W Miley $6M x 1 E Santana $6M x 1 Pomeranz $5M x 2 G Richards RP: $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $11M x 3 J Familia $11M x 3 Z Britton $11M x 3 Robertson $10M x 3 Ottavino $9M x 9 A Miller $9M x 3 J Kelly $9M x 2 J Soria $8M x 2 C Allen $8M x 1 Herrera $6M x 2 B Brach $5M x 2 J Chavez 1B/3B (move to 1B or move Devers to 1B) $20M x 1 Donaldson $9M x 4 Marwin Gonzalez $8M x 2 Moustakas $?? x ?? S Pearce (not listed on MLBTR's top 50 list) C $16M x 4 Y Grandal $12M x 3 W Ramos $4M x 2 M Maldonado $4M x 2 K Suzuki 2B $10M x 2 D Murphy $10M x 1 Dozier $9M x 2 DJ Mahieu

Yes, Cora makes the call, but to think the pitcher's opinion is not a part of the equation is missing a key component of the decision. I'm fine with Sale wanting, needing or demanding Leon catch him. If it works, don't "fix it." The real issue here is if we dump Leon for Swihart, it won't just be Sale complaining and doing worse when Swihart is behind the plate.

Me, too.

Losing Britton and Robertson might be a reason, but they have larger needs elsewhere.

Great post, CP. We are so lucky Henry bought the team.

Yes, there is a zero chance we reset this year. The big question is about the $40M penalty line and how close we come to it or go over it- probably for just one year. I'm not even sure we reset after 2019. I'm thinking after 2020 is the likely time, but a lot depends on how we look next year. I wouldn't be surprised, if we end up signing just Eovaldi and Kelly or something similar. We keep some budget space for DD to work his in season magic, if and where it might be needed.

Plus, we could see an improved Nunez knee, continued improvement with Holt's durability and endurance and input from Lin or Hernandez before Quiroz gets a look and we decide to look outside the organization for a 2Bman. Then, there's a slight chance Pedey gives us something good. Too many choices at 2B to spend precious resources there this winter. Wait it out.

We'd be better off waiting to the mid season for any 2B acquisitions.

I'm not complaining, but I expected more PH'ing, even in the playoffs. I expected some more games would see our catchers PH for twice. It did happen more often in the playoffs, but I still expected more. Again, I have no beefs with the best manager in Red Sox history.

If we don't resign Eovaldi, Pearce and Kelly, here are some possible alternative options. SP (Eovaldi) Corbin- signing him would likely mean we get no outside help at 1B or pen. Morton- close to what E-O will get. G, Richards- long shot RP (Kelly) Kimbrel- likely too costly Andrew Miller- likely too costly Ottavino- possible Robertson- I'm not high on him. Z Britton- I'm not high on him either. T Sipp- Lefty 1B/RH'd hitter (Pearce) Marwin Gonzalez (OF & SS also)