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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Single A player with a long shot hope of amounting to something. I'd rather keep him, but if he'snever going to get a shot at playing, we should just rip the band aid off and get the best we can for him. When Pedey comes back, if Nunez isn't going to the DL, and JBJ's not going to AAA, then say bye-bye to Swihart.
  2. moonslav59
    We're not getting squat for Swihart for the same reason he's not even playing for a coach known for using his bench to the max.
  3. moonslav59
    Welcome, Charlie.
  4. moonslav59
    Can you give another example of someone bashing one of your observations. The one you gave seems spot on and probably can be backed up with data.
  5. moonslav59
    Lat 14 days OBP (25+ PAs) .444 Betts .443 Beni .400 JD .400 Leon .364 Moreland .294 Bogey .280 JBJ .267 Nunez .224 HRam .224 Devers .194 Vaz
  6. moonslav59
    True, and not that we are near the lead in runs scored, suddenly, it's a problem.
  7. moonslav59
    I guess that's better than may 1st or earlier. Here's a look at 1st half-second half splits, which is waiting until after Memorial Day: 1st half/ second half 841>754 Betts 803>745 Beni 806>671 Bogey 793>736 Moreland 794>694 HRam 853>579 JBJ 660>812 Vaz Maybe JBJ flips the splits this year: maybe not. It looks to me, like not many players are consistent from 1st to 2nd half. If we traded or DFA'd everyone for having a bad 2-3 months, we might not have anyone left on the roster.
  8. moonslav59
    Agreed. BTW, I'm not all that worried about JBJ, Vaz or Nunez right now. Ask me again at the end of June.
  9. moonslav59
    JBJ looks bad right now, but he looked bad all the other years during his cold streaks. What makes this year feel different?
  10. moonslav59
    Swihart & Johnson for Bartolo Colon.
  11. moonslav59
    No it doesn't. "This" says what he has done in his recent past, and short sample sizes of past performances does not work as a good projection model.
  12. moonslav59
    First of all, 4.0 is not worth "almost" 4.6. 4.6 is 15% higher than 4.0. Second of all, defense and base running factors into WAR. Machado and JD are both negative on defense. Helpful hint, if you can't fathom WAR, then don't use it or pay any attention to it.
  13. moonslav59
    When two (or three) different sources give differing values for WAR for a player saying "It's better than anything else", that's a pretty low bar. As you said, every calculation that gets put into WAR is flawed in one way or another so I'll ask it again. When does it become "garbage in, garbage out"? I guess that's a personal decision. My opinion is this: while the numbers fed into the system may be imperfect, they are not garbage. When the sample sizes are large enough, most things have a way of evening out, such as bad scorer decisions, strength of opponent and other factors. All I'm saying is that WAR represents the best number I know of that shows a players overall value and not just hitting, power, defense, running and more... I'm sure teams have their own formulas, and my guess would be that their results would be pretty close to WAR, in terms of comparative player value. If you are the type of person that thinks this is not possible or not something you even want, even if "perfect", then WAR would be worth 'absolutely nothing!" To me, it has value, but it is not the be-all-end-all.
  14. moonslav59
    I'm not saying this proves WAR is right, but to me, it proves it's more "right" than any other single number used to compare player value. Can you give me another single number stat that does a better job at showing a player's total value? I get the argument that even trying to get to a single number is a futile endeavor, so if you feel that way, fine. It's flawed. I get it. So is BA, OBP and Flg%. Eye test is fine but not for comparative analysis.
  15. moonslav59
    I think only a very select few treat WAR as the gospel. I know I don't, and I'm widely considered a "numbers guy." When we have water cooler discussions about who is best or better, we often throw around flawed stats and data that support our positions. We might minimize defense or base running, or maximize the power tool, or go to RBI or clutch stats to try and tip the balance our way. All WAR does is try, and I don't use the word "try" lightly, to combine all areas by weighing their importance and creating a simple one number to value players. I think WAR is just the starting point to any debate on who is better or best. Others who like WAR may view it differently.
  16. moonslav59
    We can argue semantics all day, but I'd say no. It is more flawed than WAR, since it clearly weights SLG as being equal to OBP, and it isn't. It also duplicates the same values for somethings but not others. BTW, I have no issues with calling all these numbers stats, but I don't view WAR as one, since too much opinion goes into the weighting of the formula.
  17. moonslav59
  18. moonslav59
    JBJ has almost always had a hot streak or tow that brings his season OPS to a respectable level. I see no reason to not expect it to happen again. Of course, it may not, but the odds favor it happening vs it not happening. Those who believe he will end up being below .600 on the season are being pessimists.
  19. moonslav59
    Apparently, he's seen him play a couple times and knows for a fact, he can hit way better than Vaz & Leon.
  20. moonslav59
    Because it's a metric based on a formula created by humans who weight various stats the way they feel they should be weighted. They are not perfect and admit it. It's not about being perfect. While BA is a perfect stat for gauging a hitter's batting skill, it too is flawed due to game scorer's opinions, strength of opposing pitcher, defense and park size. WAR attempts to simplify player evaluation into one number, so we don't have to say, yes, but player B has more power and is a better defender, followed by, "But, player A runs the bases better and hits better in the clutch", and so on... It's a flawed number, no doubt, but it tried to do what we all do when arguing who is the better OVERALL PLAYER.
  21. moonslav59
    If somebody asked me who is having the best season, so far, I'd probably put the top 5 in an order very similar to this: 1. Mookie 2. Trout 3. Ramirez 4. Machado 5. Lindor That's exactly how fWAR has them lined up! What's a better stat? OPS or wOBA? Betts, JDM, Trout, Machado, Bryant? wRC+? Betts, Trout, JDM, Machado, Belt? Of course any metric that tries to quantify every aspect of the game and combine them into one number will be flawed, maybe even seriously in some areas, but I've yet to hear any WAR naysayer come up with and adequately defend the choice of one other stat or metric that is better at quantifying total player value for purposes of comparing player values.
  22. moonslav59
    If you go by just this year's OPS as a quide, here might be our best line-up: defense be damned. 1. Betts RF 1.198 2. Beni CF .844 3. Moreland 1B .991 4. Martinez LF1.077 5. Bogey SS .881 6. HRam DH .750 7. Devers 3B .705 8. Holt 2B .887 9. Leon C .546 Top May Sox OPS 1.239 JDM 1.228 Betts 1.076 Moreland .973 Beni .900 Leon .733 Holt .676 Bogey .653 Devers .587 Nunez .567 HRam .449 Vaz .350 Swihart .342 JBJ
  23. moonslav59
    Wait a week.
  24. moonslav59
    It would have to be a 3-way trade.
  25. moonslav59
    MLB Leaders OPS 1.198 Betts 1.077 JDM 1.072 Trout 1.070 Machado 1.010 Bryant 1.007 J Ramirez 1.006 B Belt Total Bases 127 Betts 119 JDM 116 Machado Team TBs 779 BOS 702 OAK 692 ATL 690 NYY Team XBHs 186 BOS 164 NYY 163 OAK HRs 68 BOS 67 CLE & NYY 62 LAA 61 OAK & TOR OPS .802 NYY .795 BOS .775 ATL Runs 254 NYY 253 BOS 243 ATL Runs allowed 122 HOU 164 AZ 165 CC 169 STL 171 PHI 173 WSH 175 MIL 178 BOS & NYY
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