moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Kinda, but then they did hit a cliff. It took DD 4 seasons under 73 wins before the team won over 90. 2 years later, they won just 74, then they won 86 and 81. They went 4 years with 88+ wins after that, and then the hit tough times from 2015 to 2018.
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OF'ers are easy to pick up mid season.
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Maybe too expensive. Maybe too many years. Maybe to much of an injury risk.
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Pearce, Moreland, Travis and Nunez can play OF, too.
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The official budget tally has not been released to my knowledge. I think the estimate had us less than $1M over the final limit. Let's wait and see. I'm not saying the draft penalty is not significant; you opened my eyes on that, but what you get in talent through free agency that puts you over $40M is very significant, too.
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I guess it's a little worse than I thought, but the players we get for going over by $40M offsets that, don't you think? A 50% tax on $40M is $20M and that gets you a lot of FA talent. I still think the tax penalty far outweighs the draft choice drop.
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The 10 slot penalty is not bad, but it does have an effect if it's every year. The tax is the issue, as it rises to 50% after for the third year. I doubt any owner wants to pat that every year. Even the wild spending Yanks and Dodgers chose to reset. I'm almost certain we will at some point in the next 3 years.
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Maybe a little worse but more dependable.
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Let's hope he does better than those two. Any targets you have in mind?
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We will be very close to the $40M over line in 2019, and that's with just spending very little from now through next summer. I'm not sure if we really went over $40M this year, but we will find out at some point, when the official numbers come out. I can't really see us going over $40M 3-4 years in a row, but who know. If it's only by a little, the tax and penalties are not that much more than going over by $39.9M every year.
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Any way you look at it, if we reset the tax after 2019, 2020 or 2021, even if we stay just $1 under for just 1 year, I can't see how we remain very competitive for at least that one year (Betts or no Betts).
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Maybe we can hope Chavis and Dalbec can replace Pearce & Moreland. That $13M saving can pay Bogey's raise. Pablo's contract pays the arb raises. Incremental raises to JD and Porcello can keep us even. That leaves Sale's $15M raise. This is also assuming we stay even with 2019's budget. If we re-set the budget, several top players have to go in order to shed $40-50M from the 2019 budget. My guess is we wait until after 2020 to reset, but who knows?
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The Pablo contract expiring can not cover all the rising costs of arbs and raises needed to keep our core intact. What will it cost to re-sign or replace in kind these free agents to be? After 2019 Sale $15M>$30M+ Porcello $21M> $24M+ JD $22M>$24M+ Bogaerts> ~$11M> $24M+ Pearce/Moreland> $13M> ??? (Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey) Maybe the RP'er we sign to a 1 yr deal> ??? After 2020 Betts JBJ Wright Workman Maybe a RP'er we sign to a 2 year deal
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It wasn't snarky- maybe a little condescending, which was unintentional, as I have made the point several times that we should just put off some signings and wait for DD to work his midseason magic as a legitimate strategy.... like the Eovalid and Pearce deals... like the Nunez and Reed deals in 2017...
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Basically, anyone not named Clay.
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The number of saves argument is weak. What other teams went into the ninth leading, but not by too much, as much as the Sox did? Maybe 5-6 teams? Also, I can't see looking at Kimbrel's playoff saves as feathers in his cap.
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Nobody here thinks Cody Allen is a better closer than Kimbrel, Ottavino or Familia, including me. If our current budget and future budget are not a concern to Henry, then I admit my whole approach is wrong and to hell with Allen. I do think the budget matters. With that in mind, my first choice is Ottavino with Familia not far behind. Even those choices might be too much for our future budget. If the cost is too high for DD and Henry on getting a top close, then what are our other options? 1) Trade for a closer? (With what?) 2) Look for high upside cheaper options? 3) Maybe sign 2 guys to shorter term, less (financially) risky deals, instead of one? TRy this, assume DD is told not to sign a closer for more than 1 or 2 years, and that means no Kimbrel, Ottavino, A Miller, Britton or Familia, what's your suggestions?
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My history has always been about needing larger sample sizes. I don't even think a full season is a large enough sample size to make any definitive judgments. Yes, I do post last 30 days OPS numbers to try and show who is hot and who is not, but I never make judgments based on sample sizes many feel are large enough to do so. Look, I know Allen is a risk. There is a good chance his 2018 numbers are an accurate portrayal of where he is headed. I get it; really, I do. The only reason I mention him is that I think we need to look for short term contracts with high upside. He might take a one year deal. He might end up being the pitcher he was for 5 whole years instead of the one he was just this one year. How am I cherry-picking? I'm not counting his partial rookie season. He's been close to great or very good for 5 straight years before 2018. There is no hidden agenda or sample size manipulation here. Okay, on one stat I used his previous 4 years not 5 as with the other ones. If that's cherry-picking, then I'm guilty as charged.
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I don't think sharing the glory diminishes anything. One could think of it this way: the amount Theo's glory is diminished by Douquette, he gains back by helping Ben's glory for 2013, and so on. It remains to be seen what DD leaves the next GM, but that could be a long way off.
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It's not about who is smarter. I've mentioned how DD seems to make his best deals mid season or under the radar deals, so that is a reason to argue not to make the deal now. I get that about your point, but we do have other pitchers like Shawaryn that we could trade next July, and hopefully DD can find another starter like Eovaldi. I'm sorry for coming across as condescending, but the idiocy comment was worse, IMO.
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Funny that extending your logic is idiocy.
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So, why sign Eovaldi? We should have just waited for July and traded Shawaryn, Lakins and Velzquez for 3 Eovaldi's.
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So, a deadline chip is better than an offseason chip?
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He reminds me of Beeks.
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Yes, and we used 11, although Beeks and Cuevas got only 1. It's interesting how this year we had 8 starters with over 8 starts, and one wasn't Wright. Look at our other ring years: 2004: Only 5 starters with more than 3 starts! 2007: Only 6 starters over 7 starts. 2013: Only 6 starters over 7 starts
