moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I want us to try hard to win this year, and if the plan is to reset after 2019, I'd be fine with a 1 year deep decline (or cliff), if we try to set it up where we can become pretty competitive in 2021 and highly competitive afterwards. I'm not sure how easy this will be to do, but my assumptions are based on Henry's willingness to go $39M over the line the year after we reset. The tax rate will be lower. We will have lost a few key players after 2019 (most likely Porcello & Sale), but Pablo will be off the books, and spending near $250M in 2021 should make any team highly competitive. I just don't see how we can try very hard to win this year, be competitive in 2020 and highly competitive beyond that. When the reset is planned makes a big difference in the deals we make this winter. I can't see us going 2 more winters without resetting. If I'm wrong then so be it, but I'm pretty certain Henry has a reset as a high priority within the next 2 years. I'd love to have a great closer, but I'd rather have Eovaldi than CK, so I'm fine with where DD chose to spend his limited funds this winter.
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He's not the guy I really want, but we can probably afford him without opening another hole by trading salary to make room for CK or Ottavino. He has a pretty bad year last year, but he was still over 10.5 K per 9. His BB/9 went from 2.8 to 4.4. That's what killed him more than anything else. (HR/9 went from o.3> 1.1> 1.2> 1.5) He's a big question mark, but I think if we get him and maybe traded for someone like him, too, we should be fine. Keep some buffer for a mid summer deal, if needed. Here's his velocity charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=12183&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
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I'm not dismissing those 9 years. I said he was the best. Key word: was. Of course I'd prefer CK over Allen everyday of the week. Can you respond to the scenario I put before you and assume the budget is real and is a restriction?
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Or, pay a little more for Grandal and sign Ottavino not CK. If we get something decent for Porcello & Vaz, it could work out.
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...and my guess is we improve at 3B, 2B and C this year, which can help offset the decline in our pen numbers.
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Anybody can match Kimbrel's playoff numbers. You can glorify those saves all you want, but he sucked. It's not about his last 9 years (which are the best of any active closer); it's about his next 4-5 years and how his contract will mean we lose someone after 2019, we might have been able to keep.. The big picture includes projected decline by age. The big picture includes looking at the whole roster and not focusing on one role. To me, I'm looking at the big picture, and you're using a microscope. Look, I'm not for standing pat, and if the budget is not a concern for 2019 or beyond, then I'm all in for a solid closer. Just humor me, if we plan on not going past the $40M line in 2019 and will reset after 2019, how do we sign Kimbrel? Who do you trade this winter to clear budget space? What extra player walks after 2019, because of Kimbrel's $16M+ contract? Just assume DD has limits. We can't go back and undo the Pearce or Eovaldi signings. We have less than $5M to spend without going $40M over for the second straight season.
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They could trade Porcello & Vazquez for something decent and sign Kimbrel & Grandal.
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We could possibly trade 2 of the 3 salaries, if anyone wants them, to come up with the $8M or so... $6.5M Moreland (Go with Pearce FT or give him help with Swihart/Chavis...) $5M Nunez (Pray for Pedey or Holt to be enough) $4.5M Vazquez (Go with Leon and Swihart and many prayers) I'm assuming a lot here, but I'd rather do without Nunez & Moreland than JBJ.
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The rest of the team more than makes up for it. Besides, we won last year somewhat easily, despite Kimbrel's horrendous playoff numbers.
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For argument's sake, what area would you weaken (via trade) on the Sox to improve the pen, assuming we have a spending limit? The Yanks are weak at 1B, SS until Didi returns and our rotation, defense, base running and offense is better than theirs. Also, the Yanks have some great young talent, but they are relying on more post-prime players than we are at key positions: 38 Sabathia 36 Happ 35 Gardner It would be nice to be as good or better than every competitor at every position, but we've already spent more than anyone else to get where we are, I just think it's a bit too much to expect we just go out and buy more shiny objects, so we can be the best everywhere.
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Maybe, but my guess is, we don't get either, unless we trade salary.
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We have a great rotation. We have a very good defense. We run the bases very well. We have a great offense with more players on the upside to prime than on the downside. Our pen certainly has needs, and I think DD will add an arm or two, but it might not be a glitzy,costly one. We may also address the need during the season.
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Where would this pen rank among the 30 MLB teams? Cody Allen Brasier Barnes Brad Brach Hembree Thornburg Workman/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright/Poyner/Lakins Where would it rank, if we just signed Allen or Brach? Granted, I'd rank the top contenders' pens stronger than ours, but we are stronger than them in several areas. Do we really need to be top 5 or 6 at every phase of the game?
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We are on pace to way outspend the next highest spending teams in MLB from 2018-2019. Despite all that, we have a weak area, as do all other teams. I don't think we can just assume we'll keep throwing money at every position in need of an upgrade. GMs make these choices all the time, and maybe DD feels like we'll have a winner in 2019 without a glitzy closer.
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So, there's no limit? We can go $40M over in consecutive years? The Yanks and Dodgers are big time also, and they both reset their tax. Do you think we will reset after 2019 or 2020?
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We won NOW, already. We will be highly competitive this year. DD has a bottom line. We'll see what it is. I'm sure, if his bottom line is high enough to get a top RP'er, he'll do it.
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I get that, and I don't think DD is done. I do think he's done spending large and long as the reset looms. I realize nobody here knows what budget restrictions DD has for this year and beyond, but if we go on the assumption that he can't go over $40M this year and must reset after 2019 or 2020, then his hands are tied. If the pen is viewed as more important than our OF (trade JBJ), or IF (trade Bogey) or our rotation (trade Porcello), then maybe we'll see something like this happen. While I value the pen, I value the players I listed above more. If we could trade Nunez & Moreland to free up enough space for Ottavino, I'd do it, but I'm not sure it's possible. More likely, we make a modest trade for a low cost RP'er (Chavis/Swihart/Shawaryn) and then sign the RP'er left over after free agency picks over the best (maybe Cody Allen or B Brach). I realize that may not be enough to placate those who value the pen more than I do or more than other positions, but the cat is out of the bag. We can't undo past spending, unless we trade salary and open a new gap.
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I agree, but the thinking might be that the created budget space would allow us to improve our pen by more than our OF defense suffers by trading JBJ. Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but I'm not sure what the plans are for this club to reset. If their plan is to reset after 2019 and JBJ is not in their 2020 plans, then this deal now makes more sense, especially if trading JBJ allows us to greatly improve our pen.
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Because we chose to spend more elsewhere. We chose to upgrade other areas and have spent way more than any other team in MLB to get where we were last year and are this year. Just assuming we will or should just spend more to upgrade our last area of need may not be realistic within the boundaries Henry sets for DD on spending limits- not just for this year, but maybe to plan for a reset after 2019 or 2020.
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I'd hate to see the Sox trade my favorite player, JBJ, but it does make some sense. It would allow us to get a RP'er and stay under the $40M mark this year, and it would help us get under the luxury tax line after 2019, if we choose to reset for 2020. I guess trading JBJ would mean JD, Holt, Pearce and maybe others like Swihart, Nunez, Moreland or Lin play more OF. We could see Moreland at 1B, Pearce at DH and JD in LF/RF for a few games. We lose heavily on defense, but on offense, we may stay about even. (Note" I do NOT want to trade JBJ. I'd rather trade Bogey or Porcello.)
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MLBTRs reports.. Of the pricey veterans the Red Sox reportedly considered trading last month, they “pushed” center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. harder than anyone else, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears (subscription required). However, the Red Sox couldn’t find a deal to their liking for JBJ, Rosenthal notes. The Diamondbacks were the only team publicly connected to Bradley around that time, though there were conflicting reports about whether they were truly interested in him. As of now, it seems the soon-to-be 29-year-old Bradley will once again man center in Boston in 2019, his second-last second of arbitration eligibility. Bradley will make a projected $7.9MM during the upcoming season.
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Maybe we can get both Allen and Brach on one year deals.
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$40M/3 with an apparent 4th year option bringing it to $50-55M/4. I'm glad we didn't try to outbid on this one.
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Yes, and don't be surprised if JBJ has a career year. Beni, too.
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This is certainly not an "off year." I know the saying about standing still is really going backwards, but in our case, I don't see it that way. With Eovaldi here from day one, we are better on paper for opening day. Hopefully, players who misses time with injuries will return to form, and we won't have major health issues in 2019. To me, injuries are our biggest concern. (I'm assuming we add a pen piece.)
