moonslav59

Exactly. In no way is your farm system's only function is to provide trade chips. In fact, ideally, that should be secondary to the idea that your farm provides your big club with cost-controlled talent on a consistent basis.

A ring might make him happy enough to want more.

1. This past winter was not loaded with top free agents. 2. The biggest spenders were either resetting their luxury tax or limited by the $40M over line. 3. Next winter is different on both counts.

Come on, we got Beni because we were bad, but we got good again while he was still a prospect. We did not trade him because we viewed him as a bigger asset to a team in need of a LF'er. I remember people saying we should trade our top prospects for Hamels. I'm glad we didn't trade them all. That's my point. Keep some- trade some. Their purpose is not just for trading as you proposed.

With so many NL teams feeling like they are close to contending, I could see many of these teams looking to go large on 1-2 big name free agents: LAD SFG Cubs WSH ATL STL PHI PIT MIL COL Plus, traditional big spending non contenders like NYM. Even the padres splurged last winter on Hosmer. AL possibilities NYY BOS to some extent HOU CLE SEA LAA Even the CWS might see this winter as the time to add a piece or two to their solid young core of talent.

You're right. My bad. I was sure I saw it did. Okay, so $146M minus arb costs. We're still talking at least $80M to spend. (They may not even offer Gray an arb.)

I get that, but the "whole point" of prospect chips is NOT to trade them. Thank God we kept Betts, Bogey, Beni and Devers despite being in playoff contention in many of those seasons when trading them might have brought us instant gratification at the expense of being out of it this year.

Their projected payroll next year, counting arb raises and player benefits payments is $100M. They are losing Sabathia, Robertson, Walker and maybe Gardner (team option) plus McCutchen, Happ, Lynn and Britton. That gives them $106M to spend and still be below the luxury tax and $126M to spend to stay under the second penalty phase. They could spend $146M and still not be in the "tax hell" weare in. There should be total agreement on the idea that they have MEGA BUCKS to spend! So do the Dodgers. The Dodgers lose Machado, Dozier, Grandal, Ryu & Madson. Their estimated budget, before any further spending is at $123M. That gives them $83M to spend and still be under, $103M to stay under phase 2 and $123M for under the max line. Again, MEGA BUCKs lottery numbers. The CB Tax Threshold is $206M next season. Here are some projections... $147M SFG with Bumgarner otion $145M Cubs without the Hamels option $141M Boston with Sale's option $104M HOU without McCann option $100M Nats Just watch the MEGA spending this winter. Teams saved up for this historic free agent season. It's going to be a bidding fest.

At some point you have to cash in some chips - that's the whole point of having them. The "whole point?" If that was true, all prospects would be traded. My guess is, most GMs view prospect chips more in the light of eventually filling a hole in their current team or near future team than as trading assets.

They can spend mega bucks and still be way below the max tax line or even the second higher penalty line.

Also, PAs against in the last 28 days: 51 Workman 40 Brasier It seems he's going soft with Brasier.

The Dodgers and Yankees were resetting their luxury tax budget. Those two team are historically 2 of the top 3 spenders in MLB. The Sox, the other team, were straddling the max line and had limited funds. Other top spending teams had similar situations. Much of that changes next year. Just watch the spending this winter.

No games will be truly "meaningful," except to players on the bubble, players coming back from injury (Sale & barnes) or maybe JD seeking the triple crown.

There are too many teams who just reset their luxury tax. I know the yanks and Dodgers already have expensive closers under multiple year contracts, but somebody is going to pay Kimbrel for 4-5 or more years and top dollar per season for a closer. maybe the Cubs, Nats or Cards? Guardians, Braves, Giants or Phillies?

It's my belief he'd be near 200 by the end of the season had we been 1 GB the WC all summer. He led the league in IP last year and had more the year before. I agree, he has seasonal performance longevity issues as his performance level has dropped just about every season of his career come Aug/Sep. I wouldn't be surprised, if we let him walk, but I'd have rather taken a big money risk on Sale than Price. The problem is, we can't take back the Price signing, so the choice might already have been made. It will be damn hard replacing Sale with the $13.5M he'll get his last year with us (2019).

By Ross, I assume you mean Robby Scott. Yes, Thornburg took a step back. Scott was already a long shot. His step back might be his last step. Barnes is battling a hip injury, so he's an unknown. I think Johnson took a step forward not sideways, but he was behind to begin with, so he gets more auditions to come with still a chance to win a slot. My rankings after tonight (assuming 4 starters are Sale, Price & ERod/Porcello): Lock (2-3): Kimbrel, Brasier and Barnes (if healthy) Has to take steps back to not make it (2): Wright & Eovaldi Bubble (2-3): Hembree, Workman & Poyner Need steps forward to have a chance (3): Thornburg, Johnson, Velazquez Maybe one back step away from being locked out (2): Kelly & Pom Virtually no chance (2): Scott & Cuevas

While true, there are more choices than spending big on either a SP'er or a closer. I may be wrong about Kimbrel getting the biggest/longest RP'er contract of all time, but even if I'm wrong, he's going to be grossly overpaid. I'm fine with overpays. They are needed some times, but not for a RP'er. He's certainly going to get 4 years, if I'm wrong about 5. At near $19-20 M per- I pass. We need to find better ways to get some pitching without spending top dollar (Price) or trading the entire farm away to obtain a starter (Sale) and closer (Kimbrel). I know, i know, easier said than done, and IMO a lot depends on winning a ring or not this year. I'd love to see us win this year and immediately change our spending choices and farm building priorities.

It is remarkable... fWAR 9.2 Betts 8.9 Trout 7.9 Ramirez 7.5 Bregman 7.2 Lindor 6.5 Chapman 5.8 Machado 5.5 L Cain 5.5 Yelich 5.2 JD, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Carpenter 5.1 Baez 4.9 Lowrie 4.8 Bogey We have 3 in the top 16. We also have 4 of the top 46 pitchers by fWAR 3. Sale 6.1 24. Price 3.2 37. Porcello 2.6 46. ERod 2.4

I am, for sure.

Why the "but?" I'm not for spending big on a closer. No "cautionary tale" needed with me. It's not just relief pitchers, but most big signings fail or are a disaster. With the fickleness found with almost all RP'ers, even more reason to pass on Kimbrel.

You're probably right, but I've always liked Sale and wanted him on the Sox. After all, we're talking about... Chris Freakin' Sale!

Agreed. I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but no way I offer even $85M/5, let alone the $95M/5 I think he gets. Would I offer $57 to 60M/3? Close call, but probably no. It's too much for any closer.

I'm never one to think just because someone is doing great (Embree & Timlin) it is highly likely they will continue to do so. I'm not saying Grady's choice was 1005 correct, but I think there was plenty of reasons to defend his choice (in foresight). Had Pedro struck out the next 2 guys, we'd have praised Grady for sticking with the guy who got us there. Note: although Pedro's numbers did drop off after 100 pitches, his OPS after 100 for 2003 was still a very respectable .706. I've seen posters on the game threads say "F___ You, Cora!" for pulling a starter who had gone 7 IP 6 Hits, 2 ER and 1 BB. Pedro was a God. His playoff heroics were many. I don't hold a grudge for that choice. (BTW, Timlin did come in and walk the first 2 guys he faced.) I can understand the anger and outrage and the need to blame someone.

The guys I cited aren't even close to the same class as Kimbrel- all but Davis weren't even closers.. Davis had been hurt and had a 3 year history of greatness. If Davis gets $53M/3, Kimbrel gets $95M/5. Book it.

Yes, but the point was about 2018.