moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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23 is not young, especially at AA. No, it's not "old."
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I might be more optimistic, if these guys were 21 and in AA or AAA, but Chavis and Dalbec are both 23 and were in AA this year. (Chavis was promoted to AAA during the season.) These are older guys playing against younger players. They are flip examples of Devers who continually played against much older and more experienced players and still raked.
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So what happened to the DRS guy, then? 2016-2018 UZR/150 42 SS with 1000+ innings Bogey is #21 at -0.2 (exactly middle) 2016-2018 DRS Bogey is #42 at -38 (The next guy is -22 and the leader is +71) Move the sample size to 1500 innings (35 qualify) Bogey ranks 18th in UZR/150 (again, about the middle) He's 15th out of 25 with 2000+ innings and 12th out of 18 with 2500+. I watch every play of every game, and I'm a huge fan of defense, particularly SS defense. I do not see Bogey as being above average. I have not seen any improvement over the years, either.
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I'm not arguing that Sale should win, although I do think it is close. If it's about performance level: 1. Sale 2. Snell 3. Bauer If it's about giving your team many more innings of top quality pitching: 1. Verlander 2. Kluber 3. Cole Nobody is on both lists. 1.
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1) I make the sample size small enough to get to the top 30. 2) I don't just look at UZR/150, and when I do, I value 3 years over one most recent. 3) I also look at DRS, which has Bogey dead last in any sample size you choose to use. To me, put it all together, and the numbers say, "Below average." That happens to jive with my own personal observations, as well. I also do not see the defensive "improvement" many speak of.
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I was talking defensively, but you're right. I don't want him at 3B either, unless it's an emergency.
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Bogey is not above average on defense. He's dead last in DRS and middle of the pack on UZR/150.
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I don't think it's any higher than 50%.
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It's not 30-50 IP less due to being yanked early and taxing middle RP'ers. It was the DL stints that mostly limited his IP, thereby taxing our 6th and 7th starters.
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I wouldn't do it. 3B, maybe, but not 2B where turning a DP is not something I see Swihart (or Shaw) doing very well.
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There is a limit to spending, otherwise, Henry would just sign everybody that would help. We've stuck around the luxury tax threshold for many years. This is the first time we've gone anywhere near $40M over. I wouldn't count on that continuing. Even the Dodger and Yankess reset their tax. We will, someday, too.
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If we win a ring this fall, it has a better chance at happening. It would be ballsy, but in light of all these numbers, I tend to agree that trading Bogey makes the most sense, if we have to trade someone. A lousy QO would hurt.
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Chapman got $86M/5 and did not have the numbers Kimbrel has piled up. Jansen got $80M/5 and did not have the numbers Kimbrel has piled up. Bogey may not get $25M, unless he repeats 2018 in 2019, but Betts and Sale might get more than $31M, so call it even.
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I actually think WAR gives too much cred to innings and not quality, although I know 40 more innings has a lot of value.
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I'd add LeMahieu to the list. (He can also play 3B.)
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If you had to assign a percentage on the chance that JUST ONE of Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey becomes a plus player at the ML player, what would it be? I'd say maybe 30-40% all 3 combined.
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You are probably right, but even the WAR number that is highly influenced by innings pitched has Sale ahead of Verlander and others.... 6.2 Sale (150 IP) 6.0 Verlander (202 IP) & Bauer (166 IP) 5.7 G Cole (187) 5.1 Severino (179) 4.8 Kluber (195) 4.7 Carrasco (176) 4.2 Clevinger (188) 3.9 Snell (164) ERA- 43 Sale 49 Snell 50 Bauer 66 Kluber & Verlander 69 Clevinger 71 Cole 77 Price
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...and a slight chance at a triple crown or runner-up MVP.
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I don't believe Pedey will return and think we should plan accordingly, but I haven't lost all hope. I'm fine with .500 OPS catchers, if they keep our staff pitching like they are. 3B is Devers' to lose next year. We have Nunez, just in case. We have Holt, Hernandez & Lin, in case of emergency. I wouldn't mind us signing a LeMahieu type, who can play 2B and 3B. I'd be fine with Kinsler back at a reasonable cost. Our pen should be where almost all available resources are spent this winter.
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Good point, but it is a weak area. Since the defense more than makes up for that "weak area," I'm fine with the status quo next year. Besides, our catchers might just crack the .600 line next year. All have been below their career norms this year.
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9/16 vs Mets
moonslav59 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Agreed, and he can't do much better than he has in his last 9 starts. One freakin' earned run in 48 IP! 6 BBs and 82 Ks. .194 OBP against .194 SLG against -
It's always a trade-off. There is always some sort of de facto budget line that has a priority. They may love Bogey and think he's worth $27M x 6, but they also may feel spending that money on 3-5 lesser players better suits the team's needs.
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It's reality. I'm not sure I want Henry to be known as the next George Steinbrenner. True, he can afford any budget level with taxes, but that does not mean he will or wants to forever.
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I've long had hopes for Marco Hernandez, but the guy is always hurt.
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So, let's move Swihart to 2B, right? (LOL)
