moonslav59

Nothing surprises me, when it comes to awards and how they choose them. We've had Gold Glove winners who played DH most of the year, and voters leaving Pedro off the MVP ballot in a season unmatched by any player in my lifetime.

To me, he's always been a great pitcher and it was just a matter of time (and lengthening his sample size) before he had a good stretch during a pinpoint sample size that is a playoff season. I'd expect Kershaw to pitch great at times, if his playoff sample size grew. The fans who bitched at Price, before this October, were probably the same ones starting to question Betts and his post season numbers. Maybe his HR in the last game will keep them at bay for a while. By and large, most players' playoff sample sizes are just too small to definitively judge a player, plus the numbers are often scattered over several years with huge gaps between them. We've seen players turn around 300-600 PA sample sizes, and yet some put so much faith in 80-150 PAs sample sizes or less.

I've been on the Leon bandwagon for years- Vaz, too. You don't have to convince me. I wasn't suggesting a downgrade on catcher defense and catcher-pitcher comfort value. My thought was that there must be a catcher out there, who can do what Leon does with our staff and hit .500 or .550 not .339. A .500 catcher should not cost much, after all, we got Leon for just cash. I'd be very happy with Vaz-Leon next year, and I'm not sure it would be worth the risk to switch catchers with Sale on the mound, even if the new guy has a great track record like sandy's behind the plate. I'm just saying I think there are some very good defensive catchers out there that can hit .500-.600. One could argue, so can Leon, since he's over .630 with the Sox. maybe he'll hit .650 next year.

Over the years, Soix management has been pretty good at knowing when to cut ties with players, even those who have been successful or even legendary. I'm not sure how they project Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce going forward. They may see a similar player out there who looks better or is cheaper than the three I mentioned, but I'd be happy with starting the season with Eovaldi, Kelly, Pearce and a lefty pen arm and $4-6M to use in the summer. (Assuming we trade Swihart) Replace these IP or PAs with this... PAs 207 Swihart and 195 HRam with more from Pearce, Vaz and Chavis/Ockimey/Dalbec/Travis 143 Kinsler and 27 Phillips with more from Holt, Nunez or Pedey/Hernandez IP'd 74 Pomeranz with more from ERod, Wright and Johnson/Velazquez 62 Kimbrel with more from Brasier, Workman, Wright, Poyner, Smith/Thornburg/Scott

I agree. I seriously doubt we keep Swihart over Leon. I am happy with Leon and how he gets the best from the starters he catches. He is also Sale's caddy. I do think we may look for a catcher who can hit over .500 and give us the defense and intangibles Leon brings to this team. Leon had a .339 OPS over his last 49 games of the season going back to July 8th. While I like Leon a lot, .340 is really tough to look at.

While I agree in principle, trading for a closer type could save millions on what I assume will be a a limited or restricted winter spending budget.

I remember a lot of it. I do not store much, but at times, I'll go back and find an old post to copy and paste. For this post, I went to soxprospects.com and looked at our drafts since 2004. http://soxprospects.com/dh.htm This stuff fascinates me and feeds my OCD.

...and Brasier.

True, and this was the host speaking.

Me, too, but I was hoping we'd get a decent sandwich pick or something. It's been a long time since the days we stock-piled comp picks. Here's a history of our comp picks (Oh, the good 'ole days!): Kopech 2014 (Ellsbury) Johnson & P Light (who got us Abad) 2012 (Papelbon) JBJ & Swihart 2011 (Beltre) Barnes & Owens 2011 (VMart) Workman 2010 (JBay) Ranaudo (who got us Robbie Ross) 2010 (B Wagner) S Fife (who helped us get E Bedard) 2008 (Gagne) N Hagadone (small part of VMart trade) 2007 (Alex Gonzo) Daniel Bard 2006 (Damon) Ellsbury & Lowrie 2005 (OCab) Hansen (small part of JBay trade) 2005 (D Lowe) Buchholz 2005 (Pedro) Looking at this list, one could extrapolate on the Nomar trade that brought us OCab and a ring in 2004. OCab then brought us Ellsbury and a ring in 2007 & 2013 plus Lowrie, who brought us Holt and a ring in 2018. Ellsbury then brought us Kopech, who was a major piece in the Chris Sale trade and a ring in 2018. Some gifts just keep on giving!

It's funny. I'm down here in Sugar Land, Texas listening to their sports talks shows, and they're like, "We shouldn't pay $30M for Kershaw, because he sucks in the playoffs. We need to find guys like Price and Eovaldi- guys that can step it up when it counts." I had to laugh, but that's the reality of how many fans view player value. They went on to bitch about Cole and even Verlander's playoff performances. Yup, they did!

Thanks. Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that. I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M. Is this possible? $12M x 4 Eovaldi $7M x 4 Kelly $7M x 3 Pearce $4-6M on a lefty RP'er Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

Yes, that may be assuming a lot, but word was he was almost available for the WS. We also have Johnson and Velazquez, who should both be able to up their innings next year. If all 3 fail, DD will just find the next Eovaldi in July 2019.

Since we went over the luxury tax limit, Kimbrel's 100% sure rejection of the QO we give him will net us, I believe, only a 4th round pick.

I doubt we'd get much for Swihart. He may be a throw-in with a prospect or two. I don't see Swihart's bat being good enough to play 1B, 3B or FO. A lot depends on DD & Cora's trust with his defense as a catcher that determines him staying here or not next year. My guess is, he'll be traded, and we'll give Chavis, Ockimey, Dalbec or Travis a look.

The no resigning/ no acquisition 25 man roster may look like this: 1. Betts RF 2. Beni LF 3. Bogey SS 4. JDM DH 5. Devers 3B 6. Moreland 1B 7. JBJ CF 8. Holt-Nunez 2B 9. Vazquez-Leon C Utility: 2 from Swihart, Chavis, Ockimey, Lin, Hernandez, Travis & Dalbec SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright RP: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Poyner, Velazquez Plus one from: Scott, Walden, Smith, Thornburg, Maddox, Cuevas, Lakins, Feltman, DHernandez

I hope he gets his knee fixed. It would be nice, if he could play 2B with Holt, so we don't have to trade for another Kinsler.

I think Devers becomes our FT 3Bman, Nunez will be healthier and able to manage 2B without looking like he did this year. Holt & Nunez can handle 2B, if Pedey does not return. It would not surprise me, if Smith and/or Thornburg are non tendered, but I'm not the team doctor. I can see us just signing one decent pitcher and maybe a guy like Pearce and then waiting for the season to unfold to determine who we look for in July. It my depend on how much faith DD/Cora have in Chavis/Ockimey instead of Peacre or his like or Wrihgt/Johnson/Velazquez instead of Eovaldi of his like. Then, there's the pen with 2 key openings looming large.

I'm not sure anybody has the answer to that question. My guess is we wait until the season to even think about adding a 2B piece.

Nunez reached the $1M PA bonus based on 2018. I'm not sure about the other 41M bonus based on performance. I haven't heard he gained it, so I'm assuming he's at $5M next year. Some possible salaries we could look to trade, if we have a tight budget: 6.5 Mitch Moreland 5.0 Eduardo Nunez 2.3 Tyler Thornburg 2.3 Sandy Leon 1.1 Carson Smith 1.1 Blake Swihart

A recap of Ben's influence on this championship team: The great Dodger dump that allowed us to sign Napoli, Victorino & Dempster for the 2013 ring. ERod- traded Andrew Miller Porcello- traded Cespedes (via Lester) & Alex Wilson Holt- traded Melancon with others. Kelly- trade Lackey Hembree- trade Jake Peavy Leon- traded cash Marco Hernandez - traded Doubront Wade Miley- traded for C Smith International Free Agents: Rafael Devers T-W Lin Rusney Castillo Yoan Moncada- big part of Sale trade Anderson Espinoza- traded for Pomeranz Javier Guerra- part of Kimbrel trade Basabe Brothers- part of Sale and Ziegler trades Drafter: Andrew Benintendi Brian Johnson Bobby Poyner Michael Chavis Josh Ockimey Austin Maddox Sam Travis Justin Haley, Travis Lakins, Jake Cosart, C Shepherd, Austin Rei Michael Kopech- big part of Chris Sale trade Ty Buttrey- traded for Kinsler Pat Light- traded for Abad Carlos Asiage- traded as part of the Kimbrel trade Mauricio Dubon- traded as part of the Thornburg trade

Well, I think the idea was to get many years of Kelly for 1 year from a possible pouting Lackey, plus whatever Craig could give us at 1B- another area of weakness at the time. Judging trades like that really need to be done after all parties have used up their control time.

Glad to hear the good news! Congrats.

It's a joyous time for Sox fans, and it gives me great pleasure to kick off next year's thread as defending Champions of MLB. What a great season 2018 was from start to finish. DD did just what was needed, Cora pulled it all together and the players all pitched in to make this, perhaps, the greatest season in Red Sox history. 108 wins and 11-3 in the playoffs against maybe the best opponents in MLB history. Repeating won't be easy, and starting this thread is in now way intended to take any happiness away from any fan. If you want to take some time letting this year sink in, go for it. Join the thread when you start thinking about next year's team. Here we go... Let's start with our players that are up for free agency: Craig Kimbrel: a top closer in MLB for many many years, but was not much of a factor near the end of the season and through the playoffs. No doubt, we will need someone to step up in a major way or re-sign or replace him, in kind. The next guy was probably our best option for an in-house solution. Joe Kelly: a very good set-up man and one of the hardest throwers in MLB. He gave us a great World Series performance, but was inconsistent at times this year. Drew Pomeranz: His 2018 was nothing like his 2017, and his poor season forced us to acquire Eovaldi. That worked out well for us, but we will not have to replace Pomeranz. The next guy is another story. Nate Eovaldi: DD struck gold and then some with the trade he pulled to get Eovaldi. Replacing Eovaldi with some mixture of Johnson, Velazquez and Wright is an option, as perhaps DD could look for another starter like Eovaldi next July, if we need one, but my guess is a strong RH'd starter is a top priority this winter. Steve Pearce: DD proved lightening can strike twice when he essentially replaced HRam with Pearce. When Moreland got hurt (again), Pearce showed he could hit righties pretty well and turned into an essential piece to our WS run. Ian Kinsler: Like Pomeranz, we won't miss him, but he did bring some stability to the 2B position, when we needed it badly. His offense fell off a cliff, but his defense was very valuable until the 18th inning game gaff heard round the world. Brandon Phillips: Another player that will not be missed, and his role can probably be filled from within the system. I'm sure much debate will take place around Kimbrel, Eovaldi, Pearce and Kelly or ways to replace them, in kind via FA signings or trades. I'll leave that for later days. Instead, let's look at what we have coming back and their salaries or MLBTR projected arb salaries: Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included: In Luxury Tax Dollars 31.1 David Price 22.0 JD Martinez 20.1 Rick Porcello 18.7 Mookie Betts 13.8 Dustin Pedroia 13.5M Chris Sale 11.9 Xander Bogaerts 7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr. 6.5 Mitch Moreland 5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached) 4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez 4.5 Christian Vazquez 3.4 Brock Holt 2.3 Tyler Thornburg 2.3 Sandy Leon 1.5 Matt Barnes 1.4 Brandon Workman 1.4 Steven Wright 1.2 Heath Hembree 1.1 Carson Smith 1.1 Blake Swihart $172M Total (21 players) $2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players $2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster $14.5M Player Benefits $18.5M Sandoval $209M Total That's exactly the CB Threshold next year. I'm not going to get into what spending budget we might have or about luxury tax issues right now, but this is a good reference to use as a starting point for those conversations to come. I'm going to assume the Sale option is given, and Pedey gives it a go. The next point of reference is the 40 man roster. I'll start with the foundation we have right now with no additions included. That way, we can know see what we have and who might need to be replaced, traded or DFA'd. Here is our current 40 man roster minus the FAs to be (36 players): Red=Bubble players (Trade or DFA) 9 Starting Pitchers: Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, J Haley, W Cuevas, C Shepherd 10 Relief Pitchers: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Thornburg, C Smith, Scott, Walden, A Maddox 3 Catchers: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 2- 1B: Moreland, Travis 4- 2B: Pedroia, Holt, M Hernandez, T Renda 2- 3B: Devers, Nunez 2- SS: Bogaerts, Lin 1- LF: Benintendi 1- CF: Bradley 1-RF: Betts 1- DH: Martinez Add 4 (or more if we lose some bubble players) from our Rule 5 list: Victor Acosta, Christopher Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Roldani Baldwin, Trey Ball, Juan Barriento, Edilson Batista, Eduard Bazardo, Jordan Betts, Marino Campana, Rusney Castillo, Michael Chavis, Luis Colmenares, Eduard Conde, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Ricardo Cubillan, Enmanuel De Jesus, Chad De La Guerra, Jhonathan Diaz. Jerry Downs, Nick Duron, Junior Espinoza, Willis Figueroa, Devon Fisher, Austin Glorius, Daniel Gonzalez, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Oscar Hernandez, Tyler Hill, Dedgar Jimenez, Trevor Kelley, Trenton Kemp, Matt Kent, Travis Lakins, Marcos Lantigua, Adam Lau, Deiner Lopez, Isaias Lucena, Chris Madera, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Tate Matheny, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Mark Montgomery, Jhon Nunez, Josh Ockimey, Angel Padron, Yorvin Pantoja, Yankory Pimentel, Roniel Raudes, Austin Rei, Hildemaro Requena, Denyi Reyes, Eddy Reynoso, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Teddy Stankiewicz, Kevin Steen, Cole Sturgeon, Josh Taylor, Luke Tendler, Josh Tobias, Carlos Tovar, Kyri Washington, Jantzen Witte, Kyle Wren There's a lot to discuss in the coming months. I love our chances next year, even if we barely do anything in the off season, but I seriously doubt we got that route. Let the debates, discussions and arguments begin, but keep it about baseball. No politics. No personal insults. Thank you.

Or, this^^^