To me, the cliff is more about not being highly competitive for 1-3 years, and being a bubble playoff team on paper before each season begins.
True, spending $200-210M every year should always produce a playoff contender on paper. I will say that this was precisely what Ben did, and he was crucified when the teams fell short-- way short. To think it can't happen again, especially when you look how the Astros, Yankees and Guardians futures look, is missing the big picture, IMO. The M's and A's might stay competitive, too. Other AL teams seem to be retooling and looking to 2020-2022 as a goal.
I've never said it will be impossible to rebuild and stay highly competitive, but it is going to be extremely difficult, and we can't miss on almost any move or signing we make. our history of FA signings has not been great, so we're acting like we will magically start getting big signings right from now on.
I am certain we will lose at least 2 players from this group and maybe 3:
Sale
Bogey
Porcello
Kimbrel
JBJ
I'm assuming we keep Betts, Beni, Devers & ERod. That's a nice core when you add 2-3 teams from my list, but with hardly anything looking very promising on the farm, I'm not sure this "core" will be enough. Let's say we keep Sale & Bogey and let Kimbrel, Porcello & JBJ walk. Our budget will be near $200M before we even look to replace the 3 guys we lost.
Would we have been highly competitive without Porcello, Kimbrel and JBJ this year?
I guess one could argue, yes, but the way posters are talking now on the game threads, it seems like we have little chance of winning this year, as is.