moonslav59

Good points, and there's a good chance replacing Kimbrel with Kimbrel will end up not being close to what we had for the last 3 years.

Exactly. The guy was very good, too. The Sox had a pretty long history of letting big stars do what they want but shut down lesser players on lesser wants and needs.

If we didn't have Price's contract on the books, it might be a lot easier to commit $300M to Betts, but it is what it is. It's a tough call, and I think we can try to get a little creative on ways to lessen the AVV for tax purposes, but to me, he's worth the big contract.

Exactly. Just because Kimbrel has arguably been the best MLB closer for the last 5-6 years combined, doesn't mean he will continue to be even a top 5 closer in just the first year of his expected 4-5 year deal, let alone years 2 to 5. Kimbrel did some great things for us, and it will hurt losing him, but he had already shown signs of decline over recent years, particularly 2016 and 2018. His main area of concern is control. He's still been striking out batters as much as ever, but look at these BB/9 numbers... 3.4 with ATL (5 yrs) 3.3 with SD (1 yr) 5.1 in 2016 1.8 in 2017 4.5 in 2018 Thankfully, his hits per 9 went down, but his HR/9 has inched up steadily for 2 straight seasons. I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but paying him top closer money for 4-5 years, when he's not the top closer anymore and will likely only get worse does not seem like a good choice. Kimbrel 2011-2015: #1 in RP'er WAR at 12.5 T#4 in ERA- at 46 #3 in WHIP at 0.91 (behind Uehara & W Davis) 2016-2018 T#4 in WAR 6.0 (with Betances) #11 in ERA- at 55 T#6 in WHIP at 0.91 Don't get me wrong, those numbers with the Sox are fantastic! However, he was barely a top 5 closer as compared to being the best before.

That is what happened. Plus, I literally busted my gut over the guy. (I have a laparoscopic hernia operation scheduled Dec 18th.)

Yes, some changed quite a bit. All in all, the totals are not that far apart.

Maybe something like $250M for the first 10 and $1M a year for the next 50 years. Henry won't be the owner by then, so it's not his money.

Johnson's okay and Wright is fine, if healthy (like hardly ever), but so many teams have better depth, especially in AAA.

I remember Manny being the ultimate "team player" and sitting out the last game to allow Mueller to win it.

Here are some names to ponder... Roger Moret Bernie Carbo Bill "Soup" Campbell Dick Drago Bob Watson Tom Burgmeier Oil Can Boyd Mike Easler Bill Buckner Ellis Burks Nick Esasky Carlos Quintana Danny Darwin Tim Naehring Troy O'Leary Reggie Jefferson Brian Daubech Rich "El Guapo" Garces Dante Bichete Kevin Millar Orlando Cabrera Scott Williamson Bill Hall DMac Cody Ross Scott Atchison Mike Carp Daniel Nava Koji Uehara Steve Pearce Nathan Eovaldi My top 10 in RED

Sox management could be such pricks back in those days.

Yes, counting the posting fee ($51M) for Dice-K and the 100% tax on Moncada ($31M) it was a whopper! We did save some market value on Sale's contract, but that pales against the total cost of those 3.

Hard to tell. We saved untold millions with the Dodger dump trade, and we won a 2013 ring with some of the money spent, but the rest was largely wasted. Maybe we can offer him a $300M over 60 years, so the AVV would just be $5M. (LOL)

Daniel Nava?

I'd guess we have one of the worst.

He's really missed in the area Theo and Ben did very well in- the international free agent market. Doubront Dice-K Okajima Tazawa Iggy Montas Bogey J Aro Lin Margot Espinoza Moncada Devers D Hernandez (5th ranked now) Guerra, Dubon, the Basabes and others used in trades to get key pieces. Now, DD inherited a season of being banned from signings, but he's still had two years and only has Hector Velazquez to show for it. True, The Flores death was horrible, and there are some promising, and mostly very young, prospects with the jury still out, but according to soxprospects.com, these are our top int'l prospects: 7) B Mata 19 8) A Flores 18 14) Danny Diaz 17 20) G Jimenez 18 Like I said, some promise, but it's a long way away, and a big gap between Devers and the next one. This is an example of how much harder the system has gotten, and why I don't think it will be as easy as some seem to think it will be to quickly rebuild the farm while we keep winning and spending large every year. It has been our savior for nearly a decade.

I think NO. The rotation and pen are very weak and there is no youth infusion on the horizon, except for maybe, and I stress the word maybe, Feltman. I also think keeping JD might mean saying good bye to Betts the following year, so signing guys for 2020 has to have 2021 and beyond in mind as well. (As I have said, 2021 looks like the cliff year to me, as i doubt we reset after 2019.) No Sale (the best starter we've had sine Pedro) No Porcello (the rock of our staff) No Kimbrel (the best closer in the last 6 years) No Kelly, Holt, Thornburg, Kinsler. No rings.

I think we'd all like to have Eovaldi & Kimbrel back, and I'm not saying the closer is not important, but if I had to choose, I'll take 150-200 IP from Eovaldi over 60-65 from Kimbrel. He's cheaper, too.

What makes you think we don't think about a drop off in our closer position? I do. I also know I was scared shitless the last few times Kimbrel came into a game.

It’s not a slavish devotion to Jamesian philosophy as much as it is a strong belief that Henry isn’t going to ignore economic realities, which he has shown in the very recent past he does not like to do. Not to mention the revised history that the Sox have ever gone into a season thinking “any schmuck can close” and been proven wrong. (The 2003 closer-by-committee experiment actually provided good results in ninth inning situations with only 3 lost leads in the ninth in a 54 game stretch, resulting in 2 losses). The 2013 season turned into a closer by committee out of injuries, and we all know how that one ended up. Hanrahan got injured early. Bailey sucked and got hurt. Tazawa got 8 save opporunities. There was talk of making Aceves the closer, but he sucked, too. Uehara became perhaps the best closer we ever had for a year or two.

Sox recent payrolls $156M 2014 $184M 2015 $198M 2016 $197M 2017 $234M 2018 I may be wrong, but I see 2018 as an outlier and not as a continuing trend to blow past the max penalty line and stay there for the remainder of a 4-5 year Kimbrel contract.

1. "Reasonable cost" is likely $18M x 5 years. We can afford that this year, but forget about Eovaldi, then. The real problem comes when we let Bogey or betts go, because we are paying Kimbrel. 2. Kimbrel is not a sure bet closer going forward, especially with a 4-5 year contract. Foulke gave us one year and then aged out (injury). 3. Yes, it's choice, but it is an either or choice that is no as simple as one isolated decision. We do have an ABSOLUTE NEED to create a hole somewhere, if not this year, then more holes for later.

Many felt like Bailey or Hanrahan was the answer. It turned out to be Uehara. Was that "going cheap?"

Foulke gave us one great year, then he sucked. Papelbon was a converted starter that worked like charm. Uehara was signed as a set guy. Kimbrel cost 4 prospects and a hefty salary (at the time). How do you "rinse and repeat" that? What's your plan?

Familia is a good pitcher. If Henry is is going to spend $250M this year and into the future, then sure, sign Kimbrel & Eovaldi. Hell, why stop there? Let's sign Harper and trade JBJ for another pitcher! We aren't signing Kimbrel and Eovaldi, so we better look at other options, lesser or "discount" out of necessity.