moonslav59

These pain meds are doing me in! I thought Kimbrel was 2 years older not 200 days older. My bad.

I think D Hernandez has the best chance to make a major impact within the next 1.5 seasons. I pick Bryan Mata as the prospect who rises the most over the 2019 season. Chavis and Dalbec (maybe Shawaryn) might be the first to get a chance and make an impact. There's an outside hope with Feltman late in the season, but I think 2020 is more likely. Groome is hard to figure. Houck looks to be bound for the pen and may become significant, but I'm not expecting it. I'm still thinking our best hopes are with our far away prospects like Casas (18), Mata (19), Flores (18), D Diaz (18), Scherff (20) and Decker (19)/Howlett (19)/Northcut (19)/Jimenez (18)

One could easily argue Kimbrel is showing signs of decline, and when you look at his age, I would guess Kimbrel is more likely to decline than Allen or other younger RP'ers.

Agreed, and I realize maybe I got too high on Pearce based on a tiny sample size last year and some surges here and there during his career, but I think the platoon may surprise many.

Here is Greg Bird's history since 2014: 2014 A+ 325 PAs AA 212 AZfall 115 2015 AA 212 AAA 115 MLB 178 2016 DL- all season AZfall 78 2017 AAA 59 MLB 170 DL returned back to DL A+ 22 2018 DL to start the season AAA 18 AA 20 A+ 11 MLB 311 DL

So, one bad year means we write them off? Cody Allen just turned 30. He's younger than Chapman and Kimbrel, but I guess we're supposed to believe he's over the hill due to a bad year. He had 5 straight very good to great seasons before last year's "bad year"- a year in which he still posted a 10.7 K/9 rate. His BB rate spiked Also, the "market" extends beyond free agency. I think there's a significant chance we trade for a decent to solid RP'er and sign Allen or Brach. We leave some money left over for a mid summer trade, if needed. We also can fall back on using Eovaldi as a closer.

Some other questions about the 2019 Yanks: We've already beaten the 1B position to death, and nobody can say the Yanks or Sox will be above average at this normally big offensive position. SS: Did will return, but how well will he recover from TJ surgery? How long will it take for him to regain his bat and arm? (Machado would change this) 2B: Torres is certainly a very promising player. His .820 OPS last year blows away any numbers the Sox put up, but he has under 500 career PAs in MLB and his .755 OPS over his last 221 PAs may be a sign of his true level on offense. His minor leagie OPS is .781 over 1602 PAs. No doubt, he's a promising young player, but he could take a step back from .820. 3B: Andujar is a very promising young player. He reminds me of Devers, especially on defense. He's 23 and the sky seems to be the limit for both him and Devers. If the Yanks sign Machado, one wonders if he will be traded, moved to 1B or whatever. Like Devers, there are questions. LF: Gardner is 35. He's been under .715 in 2 of his last 3 seasons. If Sanchez or Andujar DH, then Gardner makes a nice 4th OF'er, but if he's used in the OF more often than not, then once could call this a weak point on the team. Age: While the Yanks are certainly loaded with some fine young talent and prime players, they will be relying more much older players in key roles than the Sox will be doing. We have more over 33, but the players 35 and older in key roles show the Yanks with 3 and the Sox with zero. 38 Sabathia (5th starter) turns 39 in July 36 JA Happ (3-4 starter) turns 37 in Oct 35 Gardner (OF) turns 36 in August Sox 35 Pearce (1B short platoon) turns 36 in April 35 Pedey (2B out last year) turns 36 in AUG 34 Wright (6th starter) turns 35 in AUG 33 Price (#2 SP'er) turns 34 in AUG 33 Moreland (1B long platoon) turns 34 in Sept

There could also be trade options.

It's always hard to know how good some teams are, when they play a relatively weak schedule. Look at UCF: nobody gives them credit, yet they almost pulled out a big bowl win without their MVP starting QB. Conversely, everyone assumes that because Alabama plays so many very good SEC teams without ever losing, they must be the best. College football is hard to figure out when everyone plays such a diverse schedule, and teams rapidly improve and decline over the course of a season

It wouldn't be the first time I've projected more than we ended up getting, but as everyone here knows, I've never been a big Moreland supporter. To me, it's more about the unrealistic hopes Yanks fans and apparently Steamer has for Bird & Voit. If they end up out performing Moreland & Pearce, I'll readily admit I was wrong. I've done it before.

They make projections like you and I. If they come up short on the Yankee 1Bmen, then yes, they will have had rose colored glasses.

.757 is not terrible. I'll take .890> .575> .867 over wings and prayers.

Like Steamer proves something?

So, Steamer is some kind of God? Pick your ass off the floor and get a grip. Go ahead and believe Greg Bird and Luke Voit will do well next year. Maybe, you'll get lucky. Then, you can laugh. Yes, Peatce has been up and down, but his downs have been equal or better than Bird & Voit. OPS Pearce .890 2018 .757 2017 .867 2016 .711 2015 .930 2014 (.829 from 2014 to 2018) Moreland .758 2018 .769 2017 .720 2016 .812 2015 (.765 from 2015-2018) Greg Bird .736 from 2015-2018 (659 PA) .898 AAA over 3 seasons .881 minors over 7 seasons Luke Voit .922 from 2017-2018 (just 285 PAs) .930 in AAA (610 PAs over 2 seasons) .829 in minors over 6 seasons 2016-2018 Splits v RHPs .873 Voit (199 PAs- the smallest sample size of the 4) .789 Pearce (587) .755 Moreland (1248) .646 G Bird (380) v LHPs 1.028 Voit (just 86 PAs) .908 Pearce (314) .837 Bird (101) .725 Moreland (290) Maybe Voit continues these numbers, and you have the last laugh. Maybe Bird starts hitting like he did in the minors. I'm going with the vets that have shown they can do well in their splits and should combine for a pretty nice overall OPS.

He who laughs last.... The only way the Yanks end up with a better 1B WAR this year is if they trade for another one or move Andujar there. Bank on it!

Our 1b position didn't solidify until August. Meaning they did okay for 2 months. Pearce vs LHPs and Moreland vs RHPs have long records of plus play and even times of excellence. To project better numbers from Voit & Byrd than Pearce & Moreland is about as rosy colored glasses as one can get.

If Pedey is back for any meaningful playing time, Holt & Nunez will be squeezed, Neither can catch.

How is having Eovaldi, Pearce and maybe Sale & Pedey for a whole season not part of your equation? To me, those 4 alone more than make up for losing CK & JK, and DD is not done yet. Yes, Allen was not good last year, but I thought you looked at 3 year records...I guess just when it suits you. DD may trade for someone better than Allen or Brach. He may get Allen and trade for someone You easily assume the first 4 month Sev will be the whole 2019 Sev. You assume Paxton will pitch more than 165 IP for the first time in his life. You assume Happ and CC will continue to defy normal age progression. You assume Tanaka will be the old Tanaka. I guess that all could happen. I guess most could happen. Would it be surprising, if most does not happen? Look, I know we have questions. Just about all our starters have big what ifs, too.

Most IP since 2016: 618 Porcello 599 Sale 518 Happ 481 CC Sab 481 Price 456 Severino 417 Paxton 410 Gray 374 ERod 235 Eovaldi 234 Wright

I'm not worried about it, but I'm going off certain assumptions that may or may not turn out to be wrong. It's more wonder than worry. (Or, we sign Kimbrel then trade him when we want to reset.)

lmao!

At least ERod's injuries have not been arm related. OKay, you chose a 3 year sample size to show Happ is better than Price. Then, you have to say Porcello is better than Happ, right? He's had a better WAR, is younger and pitches more innings. 3 year fWAR 19.2 Sale 11.8 Paxton 11.5 Severino 10.1 Tanaka 10.0 Porcello 9.1 Happ 8.3 Price 7.1 Sabathia 5.5 ERod 5.1 Gray 2.8 Eovaldi If you think this 3 year chart is the best way to project 2019, then you win. Gray > Eovaldi CC > ERod Price is barely better than CC. Things look rosy for the Yanks next year.

To me, the issue isn;t the 4th or 5th year, it's the cost against this year's and next year's luxury tax budget and our desire to reset after 2019 or possibly 2020. Any big deal that goes 2-3 years will greatly affect future choices. By year 5, we will have reset already and will likely be over again.

I didn't go all "hype and hope". You only want us to look at Sev's first 4 months, neglect Paxton's failure to ever give over 165 IP and expect Happ and CC to not decline due to their ages. You want hype and hope? Here is some... While several Yankee pitchers have difficulty going 170+ IP, Porcello never goes below 170. He's gone 8 straight over 172 and 4 out of 5 over 191. He's won a Cy Young, and while nobody here is projecting another year like 2016, at age 30 I'm thinking he has a better chance at doing well than not doing well. His WHIP has been under 1.18 in 2 of his last 3 years, and he just put up his best K/9 rate of his career. Price did more than just pitch a couple great games in the playoffs. Although 33 is post prime, he's not 36 or 39 like Happ and CC will be. His 2018 WHIP was below his career number. He missed time, but still pitched more than Paxton ever has. ERod has nasty stuff. His injury kept him from putting up some great numbers. The team went 19-4 in his 23 starts. Call me rosy, but this kid will turn 26 and can even get better. His K rate has improved 3 straight years, and his BB rate has declined 3 straight. HR/9 & WHIP also getting steadily better. Id it "rosy" to expect just the same from ERod but with 6-7 more starts? Eovaldi is a tough one to project. He's had 2 major surgeries and using his career numbers to try to project anything is difficult. Wer all know he has nasty stuff, and it's all about his health and durability. If he becomes our closer in the playoffs, it might be a great thing... again. Chris Sale's only issue is health and endurance. Nobody can question his greatness, but we showed we can win without him the second half of 2018. Stephen Wright was pitching like our ace in 2016, and he had a 12-5 record with a 2.67 ERA in late July, He has a career 3.77 ERA. He offers some hope, if someone gets hurt or we move Eovaldi to closer. Johnson and Velazquez seem to be capable 7 and 8 starters. That's the plus side of our starters, but to me, it doesn't seem like "hype".

JA Happ is now 36. He had a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts with Toronto last year before going to NY and doing very well there in 11 starts- the same amount Eovaldi had with the Sox. True, Happ had very good seasons in 2016 and 2017, despite a high WHIP in '17. We hear talk of Eovaldi never giving a lot of IP'd over his career, but Happ has only gone over 178 once (2016). He's getting older- ERod is getting closer to prime. I get how one could accuse a Sox fan of being rosy on Eovaldi, but let's wait and see. Sabathia will turn 39 in July. If he were on the Sox, Yanks fans would be calling us rosy for expecting much from him. Paxton is in his prime but surprisingly has never pitched more than 161 IP. Now, he'll be in a hitter's park. Let's see.