moonslav59
-
Posts
103,987 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
129
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by moonslav59
-
Plus!
-
I'm okay with offering him a minor league deal. I just think someone offers him a ML deal with incentives. I'm not sure anyone is dead set against a minor league deal, but counting on him for anything is foolish.
-
All it takes is for the patient to wave confidentiality, and that is what appears to have happened, since it is in Eovaldi's interest that GMs know more about his arm (since the news is good).
-
My guess is the Sox have a pretty good idea what Eovaldi's arm looks like right now. They could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but if we are going hard for him, like it appears we are, I'm pretty certain they have confidence his arm is fine. Certainly, I worry more about Eovaldi's arm (with 2 TJ surgeries) than say, Porcello's, but I'm trusting DD and his crew on what they see. If we don't get Eovaldi, we'll probably get someone else with a good outlook.
-
Yes, they are separate but related. You can't save the tax without cutting the salary, and both end up saving Henry loads of cash the year he cuts $40M in salary and saves $20M in taxes. The added bonus is the taxes he saves over the next 2 years until he reaches the 50% tax rate again in year 3. If cutting $40M in salary for just one year saves about $40M over 3 years, it's a plan that certainly is being seriously considered by Henry at some point around 2021 or 2022.
-
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
A new DH would cost money and prevent money from being spent of pitching, in theory. I'm not sure Chavis or Swihart at DH would outhit Holt/Nunez at 2B. -
I hope we re-sign Eovaldi, but I'm on record as saying I don't go 4 years. Even 3 years bumps into my projected 2021 re-set season. I'm worried about his age and health, but Buch is a train wreck. I don't see a comp.
-
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It was pretty telling that Kinsler kept starting, even when Devers returned and Kinsler slumped. It makes you wonder how much confidence DD has in Holt/Nunez/Pedey/Quiroz/Hernandez/Lin going into 2019. I think DD waits it out, and if needed, he'll get the next Kinsler in July. -
...and a lot depends on how DD and his crew view the projected value of Chavis. For all we know, they may like Dalbec & Ockimey better or the same. They may think none have a good chance. They may think 3 have a good chance. This is what will determine the choice of trading one of them and not our ideas of how good these kids are.
-
$40M tax and $40M contract cost in the year you do not re-set. It's still an $80M savings in this scenario where there is never any taxes for going over the $40M line. It would be worse, if the team went over the $40M line, and of course, less if the team doesn't go $40M over every year. Is an $80M savings worth having one season where you spend $40M less than the norm and maybe not be highly competitive? That's the big question. Remember, that one reset year (2021), the team can still spend $210M, and in theory should still be pretty good.
-
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Assuming Holt starts at 2B and Pedey never plays another game, we still have Nunez as our super utility IF'er. Both Holt & Nunez can play OF in a pinch as well as does JD. I'm not worried about our bench with Holt (or Nunez) becoming a starter. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, weaken DH, too! -
If you really equate the two histories, then fine. I don't.
-
Yes, and keeping all 4 of our current farm options (Chavis, Ockimey, Travis & Dalbec) makes some sense, but trading one may not matter, if one of the other 3 steps up.
-
A 50% tax on $40M is $20M a year. re-setting not only saves the full $60M for the reset year ($40M not spending on contracts + $20M in taxes at 50%) , but it saves $12M the next year and $8M the 2nd year (in taxes) over the limit after the reset. It's about an $80M savings over 3 years.
-
Going from a 50% tax to none for one year, then 20%, then 30% is pretty significant. Let's take a three year sample (starting in 2019) without even going over the $40M line: 2019: $246M + $12M tax (30% of $40M)= $258M 2020: $248M + $20M tax (50% of $40M)= $268M 2021: $250M + $20M tax (50% of $40M)= $270M 2022 and 2023 would be similar to 2021 ($270+M x 3= $810M) Now, make 2021 the reset year: 2021: $210M + no tax= $210 2022: $250M + $8M (20% tax)= $258M 2023: $250M + $12M (30% tax)=$262M Total: $730M for these 3 years Maybe $80M might not seem like a lot from our view of Henry's wallet size, but I guess it matters to him. $80M equals signing a player to $27M x 3 years. Now, he loses Pablo and Castillo's contracts before these years arrive, and hopefully, no current big contract player becomes dead weight, but even just staying near the $40M line for many years in a row, without re-setting, can become pretty costly.
-
True, but he's gotten better vs righties as he's aged. Pearce actually had more PAs vs RHPs (131) than LHPs (120) last year. OPS Year vs RHPs/LHPs 2018: .828/.959 2017: .767/.730 (249 PAs v R/99 v L) 2016: .795/1.028 (207/95 PAs) 2015: .765/.623 (201/124) career: .743/.852 (1548/908 PAs)
-
I don't think he's all that great at 3B, so manybe 1B is his final landing spot, but we're not yet sure Devers sticks at 3B either, so keeping Chavis does make some sense. I guess it comes down to how good we (and more importantly DD) thinks he is and can become. If you think he can be a plus at 3B or 1B in 2020, then find other guys to trade, but Chavis might be our best winter trading chip that wouldn't take away from our big league roster.
-
You can have too many injured pitchers.
-
I want dependable pitchers. That's not a radical or absurd idea. I thin he gets a ML deal from someone, and no that doesn't mean I don't offer him a minor league deal in the mean time, but my philosophy is to try and get minor league depth you can count on being there, when needed. If we sign Buch to a minor league deal, I'd be fine with him in AAA. He would offer a hope and a prayer, in case we need something from the farm. I'd rather have the Fister type guys.
-
Umm, Velazquez did go 7-2 and stayed healthy all year (pretty much). No doubt, Clay has upside, when healthy, but I'm done with him. Too many let downs. BTW, the team went____ in their 2018 starts.... 9-4 Johnson 5-3 Velazquez 8-8 Buchholz Also, maybe Johnson and Velazquez will never have a 1.04 WHIP or an ERA near 2, but I doubt they have these numbers either.... 2017: 0-1 12.27/2.591 in 7.1 IP 2016: 8-10 4.78/1.328 in 139 IP 2014: 8-11 5.34/1.386 in 170 IP 2012: 11-8 4.56/1.326 in 189 IP Buch is a crap shoot. If he'll take a minor league deal, there's no harm, but I'd still rather sign someone more dependable.
-
There is a long history of GMs guaranteeing money to oft-injured players coming off a good looking season or half season, including us taking Buch's option.
-
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
To me, this is a horrible idea. RF defense is extremely important. We'd be going from the best to the worst in one stroke. I like how Holt bulked up and looks more durable. I'm hopeful Nunez gets his knee in shape. Outside hopes like Pedey, Hernandez, Lin and Quiroz add to the chances 2B will be fine, as is. -
We do have a little issue with having too many marginal players who are out of options (Cuevas, Swihart, Hembree, Johnson & Workman). I'm not sure how much value these players have in other GM's minds, and many teams are facing roster crunches this winter and may not be looking for a 2 for 1 type deal involving 2 out-of-options players. In theory, I'd like to see us trade for a solid RP'er or 6th starter type (assuming we sign Eovaldi) that is better than Johnson/Velazquez. I could see us trying something like this and throwing in Chavis, Ockimey or Travis might help improve the returning player's value a little bit: Johnson, Swihart & Chavis for a better 5/6 starter. Hembree, Swihart & Cuevas for a better RP'er.
-
If Pedey does not make the 25 man roster, there is room for Leon & Swihart, but I think we trade Swihart with another player (hopefull an out-of-options player) for a RP'er. Since we have Pearce, Holt and Nunez, we don't need Lin, Chavis or Travis to replace Swihart or Leon.
