moonslav59

It was also the window to win a ring. When that window closes, hopefully only for 1 year, then the reset makes more sense.

Plus, these guys only started these many games out of the last 64: 0 Pedey 12 Vaz 28 Devers

Although the great start to 2018, and another great run in May to early June, the Sox still went 40-24 in it's last 64 games. This happened despite Sale only starting 7 games and ERod 4. This happened despite Kimbrel's WHIP going from 0.885 to 1.200 in the last 64 games (not counting his horrendous playoff WHIP). This team showed the ability to play .625 ball with a mediocre Kimbrel and basically no Sale or ERod.

Yes, so how can the Yanks possibly win with a below average 1Bman? A position the rest of the league gets big offense from? If Sale is toast due to his health issues at the end of 2018, then the Yankee SS position is toast, too. How can you win the AL East with the 1B and SS positions being abject failures?

I had hoped all along that the Yanks got him.

Depending on his health this year, yes, but I put him in the same category as Bogey. If Bogey looks like 2017 and not 2018 this year, he's not 100% either.

He did see a big jump, but a positive trend had been established for 3 seasons in a row. Hits/9: 11.7> 8.4> 7.4> 6.9 The improvement in 2018 was less than any other year. K/9 8.0> 8.2> 9.6> 10.7> 14.0 (The only area of a 2018 spike. K/BB 2.3> 3.0> 3.1 (Nothing out of wach with 2018 here due to more BB/9 in 2018.) FIP 5.23> 3.72> 3.33> 2.71 (Pretty steady improvement with a bigger jump between 2015 and 2016 than 2017 to 2018.) HR/9 1.9> 0.8> 0.9>0.7 (Pretty steady over the last 3 years.) BAbip .351> .318> .298> .321 (Career .322) Actually a pretty big jump over his previous 2 years might suggest he did worse than he could have, although his LD% did go up.) GB% 31%> 39%> 46%> 49%> 53% (Steady growth) I'm not seeing any evidence that 2018 was an outlier, except for the huge K/9 jump, but even that jump was part of a steady upward trend.

Well, they are seeking a Sale extension, so one could argue he is a high priority.)

I'm not sure anyone of us know what Henry feels about resetting or staying below this line or that. Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up. Of course, it make s sense to reset, if you want to avoid stiff taxes. To just shrug off that idea is making an assumption not supported by anything. (I understand how I have sounded the same with my "will reset mantra.") If he sets the line at $19.9M over the luxury tax, then yes, we can keep Betts, Boget & Sale, but the rest of our roster will be hard to fill in with above average players. I don't see our farm doing much of that over the next 1-3 years.

True, and if Brasier closes, Barnes appears to be as good a set up man as anyone else. He's improved for 3 straight seasons and looked really good last year.

He keeps confusing weakest area to a weak area. Average in one area is not a death knell.

How was a pen with no depth able to overcome Kelly's mid season meltdown, Kimbrel's post season meltdown and the injuries to Wright, Workman, Smith and Thornburg? I'm sorry, but you are dead wrong about our pen depth. The depth was what saved us. Yes, we lost Kimbrel, but losing Kelly is not as big as you make it out to be. There were many who felt Kelly shouldn't even have been on the playoff rosters. We have Brasier for a full season. That alone could make up for Kelly's loss. Yes, Thornburg is huge question mark, but with Eovaldi in the rotation, we can see Johnson, Velazquez and a full season from Workman, Wright or Poyner seeing more time in the pen. Our pen weakness right now is NOT depth or quantity: it is quality at the most important slots- closer and number 1 set-up man, although Barnes and Brasier offer significant hope there. If anything, we have too many pitchers vying for the 7 pen slots with some of the wrong ones being out of options. Barnes Brasier Wright Thornburg Hembree Workman Johnson Velazquez Shawaryn E Ramirez C Shepherd Josh Smith Poyner Lakins Brewer Walden Z Putman Feltman (after July/Aug?)

Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

Losing Porcello and Bogey next year, resetting the tax after this year and going back to spending large in 2021 will not make Betts bolt.

I disagree. I think a reset has to happen after 2019 or 2020, and I feel strongly it will be after this year.

This wasn't my plan. I was trying to show, if there was any way to keep Sale, Bogey and Betts AND reset the tax. The answer was no, so yes, Bogey goes and maybe JBJ, too.

2020 Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter. Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg 33 Sale 31 Price ~28M Betts (last arb) ~23M Bogey (re-sign) 22 JDM 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey $168M in 7 players ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs) ~4 Beni (1st of 3) ~3 Barnes (2 of 3) ~2 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2 Wright (3rd of 3) ~2 Leon (4th of 4) ~2 Swihart (2 of 4) add $22M add $15M player benefits $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs. The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M. Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020. It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday. The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.

I'm his biggest fan, but you are right. This year might tell us more, but there will always be a lingering concern.

For argument's sake, how would you keep Sale & Betts, reset the tax next year and be poised to keep Betts after his control years expire? Do you let Bogey go or trade JBJ? Any other ideas besides hoping Pedey retires?

So, I guess no reset.

He keeps harping on our least strong area. It's his only hope. Bull pen sucks. Sale is toast. Kimbrel was our MVP- we'll be crap without him. Eovaldi will be as crappy as when he was a Yankee. Betts & JD could never come near their 2018 numbers again. No Sox player, even the pre-prime players can get better.

I've posted the CERAs by pitcher-catcher match-ups, now here's the OPS against: This makes Vaz look worse than the ERA/CERA numbers look. Sale .561 Leon (1250 PAs) .616 Flowers (2227) .622 AJ Pier. (806) .632 Navarro (388) .643 Vaz (218) .680 Avila (449) .725 Phegley (363) (Swihart has 0 time with Sale.) (Some stark differentials.) Price .599 Avila (451) .616 Jaso (713) .634 JMolina (1878) .636 Leon (769) (.646 Swihart with just 48 PAs & 5.73 ERA) .661 Navvaro (542) .691 McCann (433) .705 Shoppach (705) .735 Vaz (1113) (Leon has 100 points on Vaz.) Porcello .731 Leon (1889) .735 Avila (2253) .737 Vaz (564) .774 Swihart (498) .779 Laid (1285) .831 Holaday (373) (It doesn't seem to matter as much with Porcello) ERod .662 Swihart (301) .677 Leon (415) .723 Vaz (1178) .778 Hanigan (221) Johnson .727 Leon 203 .759 Swihart 199 .888 Vaz 153 Velazquez .660 Leon 130 .794 Swihart 87 .796 Vaz 237 Kimbrel .495 Vaz 332 .499 Leon 306 .500 McCann 633 (.813 Swihart with just 25 PAs) (Pretty close) Joe Kelly .619 Vaz 409 .698 Swihart 288 .721 YMolina 688 .751 T Cruz 333 .761 Hanigan 403 .785 Leon 250 (Weird Leon dynamic.) Barnes .643 Vaz 417 .676 Leon 344 .861 Swihart 169 (Scary Swi numbers) Hembree .579 Swihart 97 .740 Leon 333 .843 Vaz 365 (Swi looks great here.) Workman .647 AJ Pier 182 (.670n Swihart with just 28 PAs) .708 Vaz 282 .814 Leon 135

Vaz doesn't call the pitches. I think it's more about comfort level and Leon being burnt out, physically.

Yes, I saw that, and it's been known the Sox "call the pitches" from the bench, so that's one reason I call it "staff handling" and not "pitch calling." Vaz has gotten better numbers with the same pitchers than Swihart, but admittedly Swihart's sample sizes are very small, except with pitchers like Johnson, Pom and Velazquez. "Weakest part of his game" may not mean weak, although weaker than hitting implies a net negative affect.

MLBTR... Machado will receive the $300MM on a fairly evenly spread basis, with the opt-out chance midway through the deal. There are some key elements of the deal still to be worked out, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Notably, the sides have yet to hammer out terms on trade protection.