moonslav59

Not if the Sox are not offering big money. If CK is better than Britton, one would think the Angels might offer a little more than their Britton offer, and if the Sox refuse to go higher, they may get him.

Apparently, the Angels were runner ups to Britton, so they must be willing to spend big. The Cubs or Braves might step up, but yes, the Sox seem to be the team with the biggest need at closer. It comes down to the money.

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetings. 1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone? My guess is we get Cody Allen and/or Brad Brach. We may possibly trade for a low cost closer. 2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away? We may not trade any of the 3, as Swihart can play other positions. We ended up needing all 3 last year. 3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman? This will not be answered until we see it happen. He could look good, then get hurt day 1.

Gut feeling or do you have some clues to provide us?

I was very worried about the amount of prospects traded by DD. It was a big gamble that paid off. It would have really sucked had we not won last year. Now that we won, part of me is thinking why not start now and try to minimize the longer term outlook by starting the rebuild now, but a bigger part of me is thinking our current team, as is, even without CK and JK, is too damn good to not take another serious try for a 2019 ring. That being said, I'm thinking, sure, let's try to win in 2019, but not at the expense of 2021 and beyond (assuming 2020 is the reset season). The Eovaldi deal was a bit puzzling, but he can be very helpful in 2021& 2022. I think the priority, today, is to do our best to win in 2019 without hurting 2021. Maybe the 2019 budget can go over the $40M line, but longer term deals must be viewed against the projected 2021 budget and roster. If the reset is going to happen after this year, all 2+ year deals need to be considered according to the reset. (Who do we trade? Who do we not re-sign? How bad will we allow the team to be in 2020? How good can the 2021 team be, assuming the tax is reset and we are allowed to spend $39M over the line?)

It's so hard projecting relief pitcher future production. Even with pretty steady guys like CK and Britton. Look what the RP'ers did with COL last year.Look at Andrew Miller. Other recent signings (in hindsight): How many look good now? W Davis $52M/3 M Minor $28M/3 J McGee $27M/3 B Shaw $27M/3 B Morrow $21M/2 T Hunter $18M/2 J Nicasio $17M/2 A Reed $17M/2 P Neshek $16M/2 J Smith $15M/2 G Holland $14M/1 Cishek $13M/2 Gregerson $11M/2 2017 Chapman $86M/5 Jansen $80M/5 Melancon $62M/4 B Cecil $31M/4 M Dunn $19M/3 Ziegler $16M/2 Tazaqwa $12M/2 T Wood $12M/2 2016 D O'Day $31M/4 --- OUCH! M Estrada $26M/2 J Soria $25M/2 R Madson $22M/3 T Sipp $18M/3 S Kelley $15M/3 Clippard $13M/2 Bastardo $12M/2 C Young $12M/2 M Lowe $11M/2 J Axford $10M/2 J Motte $10M/2 Kind of a scary list.

Actually, Betts, JD, Bogey, Holt and Moreland's B choice showed slight regression from 2018. That's 5 out of the 10 players with 400+ PAs projected regressing.

Assuming no injuries (unlikely), which line would you project for these pitchers: Pitcher IP/ ERA My Choices in RED Sale A. 195+/2.25 B. 180+/2.40 C. 160+/2.70 Price A. 195+/3.20 B. 180+/3.60 C. 160+/4.00 Porcello A. 200+/3.80 B. 190+/4.10 C. 170+/4.40 Eovaldi A. 180+/3.20 B. 165+/3.50 C. 150+/3.80 ERod A. 160+/3.60 B. 140+/3.80 C. 120+/4.00 Johnson/Velazquez/Wright combined SP & RP A. 300+/4.00 B. 250+/4.25 C. 200+/4.50+ PEN Barnes A. 65+/3.25 B. 60+/3.65 C. 55+/4.00 Brasier A. 65+/3.00 B. 60+/3.40 C. 55+/3.80 Hembree A. 65+/3.75 B. 60+/4.20 C. 55+/4.50 Thornburg A. 50+ IP B. 35-49 IP C. 0-34 IP Workman A. 50+/ 3.20 B. 40+/ 3.50 C. 30+/ 3.80

Assuming no major injuries (unlikely) which line would you project for these key players? Player A. OPS/ HRs choice better than 2018 B. OPS/ HRs choice close to 2018 C. OPS/ HRs choice worse than 2018 My choices in RED Betts (680 PAs) A. 1.100/ 35+ B. 1.050/ 30+ C. .950/ 25+ JDM (660 PAs) A. 1.050/ 45+ B. 1.000/ 42+ C. .900/ 35+ Beni (680 PAs) A. .900/ 24+ B. .850/ 18+ C. .800/ 15+ Bogey (640 PAs) A. .900/ 24+ B. .850/ 22+ C. .800/20+ JBJ (600 PAs) A. .800/18+ B. .750/15+ C. .700/ 12+ Devers (600 PAs) A. .800/ 28+ B. .750/ 24+ C. .700/ 20+ Moreland (400 PAs) A. .780/ 18+ B. .740/ 15+ C. .700/ 12+ Pearce (400 PAs) A. .850/ 18+ B. .780/ 15+ C. .720/ 12+ Nunez (500 PAs) A. .750/ 14+ B. .700/ 12+ C. .650/ 10+ Holt (450 PAs) A. .780/ 8+ B. .740/ 6+ C. .700/ 4+ Pedey A. 301+ PAs B. 151-300 PAs C. 150 or less PAs Vaz (350 PAs) A. .700/ 6+ B. .625/ 4+ C. .550/ 2+ Leon (250 PAs) A. .650/ 6+ B. .575/ 4+ C. .500/ 2+

I want us to try hard to win this year, and if the plan is to reset after 2019, I'd be fine with a 1 year deep decline (or cliff), if we try to set it up where we can become pretty competitive in 2021 and highly competitive afterwards. I'm not sure how easy this will be to do, but my assumptions are based on Henry's willingness to go $39M over the line the year after we reset. The tax rate will be lower. We will have lost a few key players after 2019 (most likely Porcello & Sale), but Pablo will be off the books, and spending near $250M in 2021 should make any team highly competitive. I just don't see how we can try very hard to win this year, be competitive in 2020 and highly competitive beyond that. When the reset is planned makes a big difference in the deals we make this winter. I can't see us going 2 more winters without resetting. If I'm wrong then so be it, but I'm pretty certain Henry has a reset as a high priority within the next 2 years. I'd love to have a great closer, but I'd rather have Eovaldi than CK, so I'm fine with where DD chose to spend his limited funds this winter.

He's not the guy I really want, but we can probably afford him without opening another hole by trading salary to make room for CK or Ottavino. He has a pretty bad year last year, but he was still over 10.5 K per 9. His BB/9 went from 2.8 to 4.4. That's what killed him more than anything else. (HR/9 went from o.3> 1.1> 1.2> 1.5) He's a big question mark, but I think if we get him and maybe traded for someone like him, too, we should be fine. Keep some buffer for a mid summer deal, if needed. Here's his velocity charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=12183&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

I'm not dismissing those 9 years. I said he was the best. Key word: was. Of course I'd prefer CK over Allen everyday of the week. Can you respond to the scenario I put before you and assume the budget is real and is a restriction?

Or, pay a little more for Grandal and sign Ottavino not CK. If we get something decent for Porcello & Vaz, it could work out.

...and my guess is we improve at 3B, 2B and C this year, which can help offset the decline in our pen numbers.

Anybody can match Kimbrel's playoff numbers. You can glorify those saves all you want, but he sucked. It's not about his last 9 years (which are the best of any active closer); it's about his next 4-5 years and how his contract will mean we lose someone after 2019, we might have been able to keep.. The big picture includes projected decline by age. The big picture includes looking at the whole roster and not focusing on one role. To me, I'm looking at the big picture, and you're using a microscope. Look, I'm not for standing pat, and if the budget is not a concern for 2019 or beyond, then I'm all in for a solid closer. Just humor me, if we plan on not going past the $40M line in 2019 and will reset after 2019, how do we sign Kimbrel? Who do you trade this winter to clear budget space? What extra player walks after 2019, because of Kimbrel's $16M+ contract? Just assume DD has limits. We can't go back and undo the Pearce or Eovaldi signings. We have less than $5M to spend without going $40M over for the second straight season.

They could trade Porcello & Vazquez for something decent and sign Kimbrel & Grandal.

We could possibly trade 2 of the 3 salaries, if anyone wants them, to come up with the $8M or so... $6.5M Moreland (Go with Pearce FT or give him help with Swihart/Chavis...) $5M Nunez (Pray for Pedey or Holt to be enough) $4.5M Vazquez (Go with Leon and Swihart and many prayers) I'm assuming a lot here, but I'd rather do without Nunez & Moreland than JBJ.

The rest of the team more than makes up for it. Besides, we won last year somewhat easily, despite Kimbrel's horrendous playoff numbers.

For argument's sake, what area would you weaken (via trade) on the Sox to improve the pen, assuming we have a spending limit? The Yanks are weak at 1B, SS until Didi returns and our rotation, defense, base running and offense is better than theirs. Also, the Yanks have some great young talent, but they are relying on more post-prime players than we are at key positions: 38 Sabathia 36 Happ 35 Gardner It would be nice to be as good or better than every competitor at every position, but we've already spent more than anyone else to get where we are, I just think it's a bit too much to expect we just go out and buy more shiny objects, so we can be the best everywhere.

Maybe, but my guess is, we don't get either, unless we trade salary.

We have a great rotation. We have a very good defense. We run the bases very well. We have a great offense with more players on the upside to prime than on the downside. Our pen certainly has needs, and I think DD will add an arm or two, but it might not be a glitzy,costly one. We may also address the need during the season.

Where would this pen rank among the 30 MLB teams? Cody Allen Brasier Barnes Brad Brach Hembree Thornburg Workman/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright/Poyner/Lakins Where would it rank, if we just signed Allen or Brach? Granted, I'd rank the top contenders' pens stronger than ours, but we are stronger than them in several areas. Do we really need to be top 5 or 6 at every phase of the game?

We are on pace to way outspend the next highest spending teams in MLB from 2018-2019. Despite all that, we have a weak area, as do all other teams. I don't think we can just assume we'll keep throwing money at every position in need of an upgrade. GMs make these choices all the time, and maybe DD feels like we'll have a winner in 2019 without a glitzy closer.

So, there's no limit? We can go $40M over in consecutive years? The Yanks and Dodgers are big time also, and they both reset their tax. Do you think we will reset after 2019 or 2020?

We won NOW, already. We will be highly competitive this year. DD has a bottom line. We'll see what it is. I'm sure, if his bottom line is high enough to get a top RP'er, he'll do it.