moonslav59

There's oodles of examples of recent players having their career best year and then doing better afterwards. In fact age progression charts project better and better years until prime is reached. Even then, some players top their best seasons post prime. It's not a freak happening. Anyway, does this mean Stanton, Judge, Sanchez and others can only get worse? After all, every player in MLB today already has a career best year under their belt. Look, I realize, Betts' OPS in 2018 was about 180 points higher than his previous best, and that doesn't happen often. Certainly, there is also a "good chance" he never repeats or maybe even never comes close, but Mookie just turned 26. He's in the heart of prime. He's got an insane advantage over other hitters in his era with his off-the-charts "twitch" rate. He's in a line-up where you have to pitch to him, and he has an area where he can greatly improve upon without doing anything more than just swinging at more good pitches than he did last year. He is a truly amazing player to be able to put up numbers like 2018 while having such a poor rate at swinging at the best pitches.

That's a possibility, at least for a year or two, but those 50%s add up over time. Resetting drops the rate for 2 years before getting back to 50% again. While going $10M over in a 50% tax year costs $5M, going $20M over in a 20% year costs only $4M. Losing Pablo's contract after 2019 makes next winter the likely reset year, IMO.

I agree that the $40M line in 2019 is less of a worry than the reset winter after 2019 or possibly after 2020.

Only because it will be very difficult to keep Bogey, and there is only Lin in our current system to compete with Chatham for the 2020 SS job. I'd say, once we trade Chavis or Dalbec, the other one might have slightly better odds at winning the 1B job by 2020.

I totally disagree. I'm not saying it's a sure bet that Mookie tops the 30th best WAR ever put together since 1925, but he's still under prime age and has clear areas where improvement can be made- like swinging at more good pitches, instead of taking so many. History shows us that many of the greatest seasons of all time were later topped by the same player, or at least they came very close to topping it. I won't use Bonds as an example, but here are a few others I found: While Ted Williams was a freak of nature, and he had so many great seasons, he nearly topped his alltime best (1.287 in 1941) 16 years later! In 1957, he hit 1.257, when he was way past prime. Babe Ruth went off the charts in 1926 with a 1.253 OPS- an OPS so high, it had to be a once in a lifetime thing, right? Well, the very next year, he topped it. Mark McGwire totally smashed his best OPS in 1996 by hitting 1.198.Two years later, he topped it. Mantle topped 1956 in 1957. Jimmie Foxx nearly topped 1938 in 1939. Hornsby topped 1928 in 1929. Musial topped 1946 in 1948. Sure, when you look at the list of the best OPS seasons of all time, there are plenty of players only seen once in the top 50, 100 or 200. One and done, yes, but even the Hack Wilsons, Frank Rhomases and Jeff Bagwells of the world had several fantastic seasons not far removed from their best. It's not absurd to think there's a "good chance" Betts can repeat or do better at least one more time.

Yes, I read that part and the part about how DHernandez is tied for our best FV and Dalbec is tied with others for our 4th best FV. I do not think we can match up with other teams for big ticket trade targets, but it's hard to know how much other teams want for a player and how much they value our prospects (more or less than fangraphs?).

Actually, the Braves have 11 ranked higher than our best. Our best 3 are ranked as 45FV. Their 11th best is a 45+. They have 3 more guys ranked 45- like our best 3. MIA has 5 at 45+ or better and 5 at 45. NYM have 5 and 3. PHI have 6 & 4. WSH 4 & 1 CHC 4 & 4 Cincy 7 & 2 PIT 5 & 4 MIL 3 & 3 STL 3 & 2

The thing is, it's usually a nice thing, if you don't have any 50+ prospects to have more than three 45 FVs and five 40+FVs. It's not easy to rebuild a farm under the new rules, especially when you win your division 3 years in a row and go over the tax limit as often and as far as we do. I'm trying to stay hopeful, but it's hard to be optimistic about our farm. We seem to be getting worse. Last year, they had us with two 50 FVs (Chavis & Groome) and five 45s (Houck, Travis, Mata, Beeks, Hernandez). (11 were at 40.)

20-25 seems about right.

What does that have to do with the discussion at hand? We know our farm is weak. The talk was about who is the best of what we have.

Updated Competitive Balance Tax Budget $Millions 31.0 Price 22.0 JDM 20.6 Porcello 20.0 Betts 18.5 Sandoval 17.0 Eovaldi 15.0 Sale 13.8 Pedroia 12.0 Bogaerts 8.6 Bradley 6.5 Moreland 6.3 Pearce 5.0 Nunez 4.5 Vaz 4.3 Rodriguez 3.6 Holt 3.3 Barnes 2.5 Leon 1.8 Thornburg 1.8 Wright 1.3 Hembree 1.2 Workman 0.9 Swihart ~4 Other 18 players on 40 man roster 14.5 Player Benefits TOTAL: ~$240M (That's $34M over the tax line already- leaving us maybe about $6M for further additions, if we try to stay under the $40M line.)

I don't think he will. We got the ring. We are among the top faves for 2019. I think DD is concentrating on 2020 and beyond without messing up our 2019 chances. That's why he hasn't jumped on a silly large & long term deal for a RP'er.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Betts & JD have even better years in 2019. I think it is more likely Devers, Beni and JBJ improve, and maybe we'll see 3 or 4 out of these 5 do the same or better. That would be huge!

Me, too, but Dalbec's insanely high K rate might make him a lesser choice.

LOL My past "crushes" include Travis Shaw, Garin Cecchini and Henry Owens. Let's hope Mata gives some love back.

Someone will overpay.

I don't consider Chavis a key, low-cost piece to the future of our team, despite our need for a 1Bman after this year. I'm not for trading Casas, Groome, Mata, Flores and many other long shot prospects we currently have.

I never said I expect it, but I do think there's a good chance he has a better year at some point in the next few years. (Plus, he wasn't even healthy all year, so if he just gives near what he did in 2018, but over a full year, we could see more impact in 2019.

Higher than college, yes. Still, all teams take the risk at some point.

No, unless he retires, like Dempster did, and gives up the remainder of his contract. Not happening. I wonder, if there is a way to restructure his deal by having him retire and then give him the $40+M we still owe him in a lifetime personal services contract at $2M x 25 years. He get's $10M more than he'll get now. We get tax relief and 25 years of his services as a coach or team rep.

I'd even add sidepieces, if necessary to try and land the best cost-controlled RP'er we can get on the current trade market.

I don't want to trade Porcello either, and this may be the first winter I'm not suggesting we trade Holt. My post was more about how it looks near impossible to stay under the $40M line, boost the pen in a big way AND not create a new hole. Even assuming someone would take all or most of the contracts of Moreland or Nunez, I'm not sure we afford to go without them. We could hope Chavis, Dalbec or Swihart could replace Moreland, but that's a stretch. By trading Nunez, we'd be pinning a lot of hope on Pedey.

It does frustrate me to watch Betts take the best pitches so often, but he ends up getting a hit or walk on other pitches. Yes, I do think he can get better, and this stat is one big reason why.

Before the playoffs started some felt Joe Kelly didn't even belong on the roster. Now, we can't win without a replacement for him. Kimbrel looked horrible in the playoffs, but we can't win without him or someone like him. Barnes, Brasier and Hembree sucked but somehow did well for the playoffs, but we can't count on them for squat in 2019. Look, I know we need an addition or two, but I don't think things are as dire as some think it is. If our rotation stays healthy, we'll have Johnson, Velazquez and Wright as pen additions, and maybe Thornburg finally comes through. Workman, Poyner and others offer some hope, but my guess is we'll add someone at some point. He might not be flashy, but we'll improve from where we are now.

True dat!