moonslav59

We won paying HRam, Pablo and Castillo over $50M. It certainly is a big risk, and to me it's a close call, but I'd give Betts $360/12.

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest. However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M. 2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ: Barnes 2 of 3 Leon 4 of 4 Wright 3 of 3 Hembree 2 of 3 Workman 3 of 3 Swihart 2 of 4 Beni's1st arb I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender. Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

Should be a good game, but you are right. This is horrible.

Bleacher Report Projections: 2012: 88-74 (3rd place) (Grantland: 87-75 3rd) I'll come right out and say it: The Red Sox are not good enough to win the American League East. For all the runs the Sox are going to score, they have no assurances that their pitching is going to be any better than it was in 2011. Even if everything goes well, the ceiling for this pitching staff is pretty low. Pitching is exactly why the Sox don't measure up against the Rays and the hated Yankees. Both of them have deep, talented starting rotations, and it must be noted that the Yankees have an outstanding bullpen. The two of them are the teams to beat in the AL East. The best the Sox can hope for is to land one of the two wild-card spots. It's possible, but their main competition will be the Los Angeles Angels, another team with better pitching than the Sox. 2014: 91-61 (1st) (Grantland: 89-73 2nd) The Boston Red Sox had a quiet winter but return the nucleus of a team that dominated the regular season and captured a World Series in October. A step back from excellence could occur, but not enough to knock this squad below the 90-win range. In a division without a truly great team, that could be a formula for a return trip to the postseason. 2015: 90-72 (1st) (Grantland 87-75 1st) The additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, as well as a full season from Mookie Betts, could give them the highest-scoring offense in the league. What they lack in front-line pitching they should be able to make up for in overall pitching depth, as there are a number of young arms ready to make an impact. They're a risky pick, but if they can even put up league-average production on the mound, they should have the offense to carry them.

Well, those Ben teams were not projected to finish last, either.

Assuming no more additions (doubtful) and 100% health (doubtful), here is how I see our 25 man roster looking on opening day: SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright (AAA: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Shepherd, ERamirez- AA DHernandez) RP: Brasier, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman, Johnson (AAA: Lakins, Poyner, Brewer, Walden, Putman -AA Feltman) C: Vazquez, Leon Traded: Swihart (AAA- Centeno & OHernandez) 1B: Pearce, Moreland (AAA: Ockimey) 2B: Pedroia, Holt (AAA-M Hernandez, Renda) 3B- Devers, Nunez (AAA- Chavis- AA Dalbec) SS- Bogaerts (AAA- Lin) LF: Benintendi (AAA- Travis/Brentz) CF- Bradley (AAA- Castillo) RF- Betts (AAA- G Hernandez) DH- JD Martinez * If Pedey starts the year on the DL, we can keep Swihart or add Lin to the roster. * If Wright starts the year on the DL, Velazquez could be added.

I'm not high on Robertson, either. MLBTRs has Ottavino getting $30M/3. That would put us $5M over the max penalty line and add $10M a year to the 2020 and 2021 budgets, which to me, is the major concern. While $10M may not seem like a lot, when we will be looking to reset the tax by letting several key players walk, that $10M might make a huge difference. I don't like the idea of going cheap on the closer slot, but I wanted Eovaldi more. The Pearce argument only affects 2019. We are super strong every where else but closer. Most teams have more than one hole. We also have some money to spend mid season- an area DD seems to do very well. I'd like to see us trade for a decent, low-cost RP'er and save some money for July. I think we will be the favorites, if we do that, even if the Yanks add Machado and the Dodgers add Harper. (Houston does not appear to be getting better.)

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts. Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out. If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022. I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

True, but maybe he gets batter for his senior year. Alabama and Clemson do stand alone and have for a while.

First time we very disagreed! Going on the assumption we let Mookie walk and get just a comp pick for him, It would feel worse than losing Fisk, Lynn and Burleson combined. We got nothing for Fisk, who went on to have a great career with the CWS, but his best years were with us. We ended up getting Frank Tanana and Joe Rudi for Lynn, and while that was not a good trade, we did get some quality in return. We got Carney Lansford & Mark Clear for Burleson & Hobson and later got Tony Armas for Lansford. My point was meant as hyperbole, but I don't think it was that far from being accurate.

Certainly, there is a big risk in any 12 year contract. Injury is the worst case scenario.It helps that Betts plays in a spacious RF half his games, and that he plays the OF not IF or catcher. Betts will be 26 next season and would be 37 in the final year of a 12 year contract. That means 7 of the 12 years would be during ages 26-32. Also, the 5 seasons at ages 33-37 are not severely post prime like many 8-10 year deals have been in the past. I get the concerns, and I'd be very worried over a 12 year deal, but I think Betts is the guy that would make it worth it, even if he missed some time for injuries.

That is an option, but I think keeping Betts during the reset year of 2020, would keep fans interested enough. We let 2-3 from Bogey, JD, Sale and Porcello walk, and then extend or re-sign Betts and some other big names for 2021 and beyond- maybe keeping the cliff to a 1 year thing.

I hate long term deals, but like the Price deal, I feel it is necessary. To compare a long term deal for Betts to others that have gone horribly wrong, like Pujols and Miggy is not really fair. Betts is much younger and is the heart and soul of our team. Letting Betts walk will be worse than letting Fisk, Lynn and Burleson go combined.

Another strategy is to pay them more in their arb years than they'd normally make, so they get more money "now" or upfront and less in the last 2-3 years, which makes it easier to trade the player, if the need arises. Or, offer $31M x 12, which is $372/12, but if the money is invested well, more upfront money may make up the difference in total pay over 12 years. I'd give him an opt out after 5 or 6 years. The problem with extending him now is that his new AVV will hurt the 2019 ans 2020 budget more than his arb costs, but it would help lessen the AVV cost for the next 10 years.

My take is that DD has a limit.It might not be a strict "don't go over the $40M line" limit, but I think he will try to stay under or very close to that line. The only exception, in my opinion, is if he can get a solid closer or RP'er on a 1 year deal. While it does not seem probable that any solid RP'er might sign a 1 year deal, if a few are left late in the signing period, maybe one takes a big paycheck for one year as a way to reset his value by hoping for a big and visible season with the 2019 champions.

We were lucky, with the JD signing, big spending teams were resetting last winter, but soon we will be resetting. This year, the resetting Dodgers made the World Series, and the resetting Yankees were extremely competitive. Let's see how we do during our reset year (after 2019 or 2020?).

Losing Porcello and replacing him with Shawaryn/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright is a huge drop off. I'm not sure we can sign Bogey and a replacement for Sale and still be under the limit. Replacing Moreland and Pearce with Chavis/Dalbec might work, but it's a gamble. No Nunez or Holt, so what, Lin plays 2B? JD may opt out.

I was assuming a reset after 2019, and with the signing of Eovaldi to 4 years and the idea of signing 2 RP'ers to 2+ year deals, we'd be saying good bye to several key players.

I know I swore off watching the NBA after last season's playoff fixing of the games, but my Bucks have the best record in the NBA as we approach the halfway point of the season. There's a long way to go!

I wouldn't be so sure about signing a big FA RP'er this winter.

That will hurt a lot, but I think we are going to be really good next year. Here is our schedule for 2019: 09/02 - at Louisville 09/14 - New Mexico 09/21 - at Georgia 09/28 - Virginia 10/05 - Bowling Green 10/12 - USC 10/26 - at Michigan 11/02 - Virginia Tech 11/09 - at Duke 11/16 - Navy 11/23 - Boston College 11/30 - at Stanford Only a couple patsies.

The biggest issue next year is we lose a lot of talent on the defensive end and clearly the second string will have to mature quickly. We lose Dexter Williams (best RB) and Boykin Miles (best WR), but pretty much all the rest of the offense returns, including QB Book. Yes, on defense, we lose some key talent, but only 3 starters on defense were seniors (Tillery, Coney and Asmar). Our whole Dbackfield returns. The Irish depth charts shows 10 of the 11 back-ups on D are under class men. https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/notre-dame/91487

The replay killed us.

. If we are going to reset after 2019, your plan basically means we'll have to totally blow things up after 2019 while having a nice pen and nothing else for 2020 and beyond. (Yes, I'm exaggerating.)

My Domers took it on the chin, today. Maybe next year.