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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I listed that as one example of trolling or I guess "troll-like" behavior. I think he enjoys stirring the pot with his extreme negativism. I view that as a form of trolling. I could be wrong. I'm giving my opinion on him just as he opines or implies that I am unbalanced. I guess if I worded it by saying what he was doing was trolling and not called him a troll, then it wouldn't be "name-calling." I welcome Guardian fans to this site. I'm glad he, at least, admitted it.
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I have agreed Brez should have done way more at the deadline. I was focused more on pitching, since I did not forsee the Anthony & Abreu injuries, as well as the prolonged slumps by Bregman and others. I admit I was wrong, but it's hard for me to bash Brez over not doing something I wasn't calling for at the time. I did mention getting a better 1Bman, at the time, but it was not my top priority or criticism, at the time.
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Most of us were more upset he did not get a much better SP'er at the deadline. I do think we should have done more than rely on Anthony, Mayer and late Lowe to help make up for handing Devers away. That is on Brez. I know many everyday players had question marks going into 2025, including Bregman, who had his OPS+ go from 142 ('16-'20) to 126 ('21-'22) to 119 ('23-'24,) but these were probably our best ranked offensive players going into 2025: 1. Devers- traded in early June 2. Bregman- despite the down trend (missed significant time w injury) 3. Duran- coming off a career year and good '23 season 4. Casas- had an OPS over .820 from '23-'24 (missed 5 months) 5. Abreu-Ref platoon (missed key time, recently) 6. Anthony- promoted too late, then injured. 7. Campbell- demoted & Mayer -injured 8. Story- stayed healthy After Devers, 4 of the next 5 guys missed significant time due to injuries. It's hard to plan for that, and one could argue our depth is what kept us in the race this long.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
No doubt the Sox have been in a pretty long slump- maybe dating back to the Anthony or Abreu injuries, but we are not alone. Team OPS in last 7, 14 and 28 Days: .684/.694/.734 BOS (year .747) .548/.659/.709 DET (year .735) .657/.658/.762 TOR (year .762) .717/.707/.798 TBR (year .717) Only the Rays are hitting better than they did earlier in the season, out of teams we are going to face to end the 2025 season. HOU is worse than the Sox in the 14 day (.688) and 28 day sample (,718) but are better over the last 7 days (.743.) CLE is worse in the 28 day (.648) but better in 14 (.730) and 7 day (.736) samples. NYY & SEA are better in all 3 samples. -
The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
A lot of these FA SP'ers have some serious questions arising due to their sharp drop offs in 2025. I'm not sure any are worth 3 year deals. I'm for signing a couple big bats and trading for a top 30-45 SP'er. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This was CLE's line-up by OPS, yesterday: .705 .644 (The "best hitter slot") .860 .599 (Mr. Cleanup) .790 .647 .462 .624 .510 .600 That's a 3 Wong and 3 DHam line-up. -
I think some of the things Pumpsie says is trolling- not all. If he truly wants the Guardians to win "Go Guardians", you know the team that sold at the deadline, and his big beef is what we did not do at the deadline, it sounds like trolling, to me. Just saying he doesn't give a "rats ass" what others think seems shallow, to me. He feeds off it, IMO. He enjoys stirring the pot in a trolling manner.
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Sandlin with another meltdown game. He may just go unprotected (or be traded.)
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Yes, I mentioned the Astros having more key injuries. You praise a team 1 game ahead of the Sox and call your favorite team the "flops." Think about that. BTW, I would not bet on the Astros winning the ALW or even making the playoffs. I'm not sure how clutch a team that is 9-9 int their last 18 is. They are also 29-34 since July 6th. The Astros could always use one more fan. Let's hear you say it, "Go Astros!"
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Red Sox Series Record since Abreu went down, after Anthony: 3-1 NYY 4-0 BAL 1-2 PIT 1-2 AZ 2-1 ATH 1-2 NYY 1-2 ATH We've won 3 series and lost 4 (all by 1 game.) Overall record: 13-10 This team's M.O. is ups and downs, yet the doom and gloomers assume the M.O. changes bases on two lost series 2 games to 1. -
The Astros have also had a ton of injuries, especially to the rotation and star batter, Y. Alvarez. I do think you have to look beyond just the numbers of injuries and days missed, and many on this Yankee list are key players and some missed significant time, such as your ace being out all year, but I still think the significant injuries to the Sox are more influential than those to the Yanks. Yes, even two weeks missed by Judge, an 1.100+ batter, is likely worse than 4 weeks lost by Bregman, but Bregman missed more than 4 weeks. Our best hitter might have been Anthony, so it's hard to gauge how much missing him to injury is valued. Losing Mayer, Abreu for significant time and Casas (career .800 batter) for 5 months is pretty damn consequential. A little missed time by Narvaez, Ref and some other everyday players adds a little to the total numbers lost on O and D, but the big kaboom on the Sox injury front was with the rotation. You may argue with how I rank our starting pitchers, but I'm looking at what I feel their pre-season rotation slot would have been, if they we totally healthy: 1. Crochet- no missed time (Cole was the opposite- missed the whole season) 2. Houck- last year's #1- missed 23 GS 3. Crawford- last year's IP leader- missed 32 GS 4. Giolito- missed 4 starts 5. Buehler- missed 0 GS 6. Bello- missed 3 GS 7. Sandoval- missed the whole season. 8. Fitts- 10 GS- missed about last 1-2 months. 9. Dobbins- 11 GS- missed over half the season. 10. Criswell- 1 GS- missed the last month. We ended up using Newcomb, D May, some pen starts and then a couple rookies not even considered depth back in March. The pen has been pretty healthy, but Hendriks was considered in the running for the closer or top set-up man, He missed the whole season. Slaten was widely viewed as our top 4 RP'er and missed a couple months. Other lesser arms missed some time. Your Yankee list is significant, too. I'm sure you could justify the value lost as being close to the Sox, but I'm not sure it would top ours, and since ours was concentrated in the rotation, which I consider most important to a team's success, I'm probably biased on that point, too.
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Narvaez had decent numbers on the farm and actually saw his OBP improve from A+ to AA to AAA. His AA sample size is tiny, and his SLG improved from A+ to AAA. His AAA sample size is 762 PAs, and he was largely viewed as a "defensive first catcher," but maybe the short-changed his offense profile. A .371 OBP is very nice and his winter ball numbers (90 PAs) were off the charts good. While OBP is hard to translate to the bigs, sometimes it does. Narvaez has a .315 OBP, this year, which is not great or even good, but it's not horrific for a first year catcher. Now, about his power: his A+ SLG was .391 and his AAA was .400. Neither is great and might indicate that his .426 MLB SLG is not to be something we can expect going forward. Nevertheless, his MLB sample size is now over 420 PAs. He hit 21 HRs and 33 2Bs in 762 PAs, which comes to about 19 HRs and 26 2Bs per 660 PAs. That's not great either, but it's pretty good, and for a catcher, it's pretty decent. In 2025, within the context of catchers in MLB, he is currently ranked out of 34 Catchers with 250+ PAs... 2nd DRS +12 9th in fWAR at 2.9 10th in ISO at .184 14th in OPS at .746 (16th in OBP and 11th in SLG) 14th in wRC+ at 102 He's certainly been a top tier catcher (top 15 out of 30.) One could argue he's top 10 out of 30 FT Catchers. The MLB league averages for catchers are... -3 DRS .307 OBP .394 SLG .701 OPS .156 ISO (This counts all back up catchers.)
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Things are a lot tighter than we wanted. The Guardians actually have a shot to catch DET for the ALC division title, but either way, our top competition is CLE or maybe DET, SEA or NYY. The Yanks play tonight, but all other meaningful games are over, today. Here is the breakdown: 85-67 NYY (WC1) 85-68 DET (ALC or WC2) 84-69 HOU (T ALW/WC2, as of now) 84-69 SEA (T ALW/WC2, as of now) 83-70 BOS (WC3, as of now) _____________________ 81-71 CLE -1.5 (1 in loss column) _____________________ 79-74 TEX -4.0 (pretty much out of it) 76-77 KCR -7.0 (hanging by a thread) 75-78 TBR -8.0 (the thread is thin)
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Good to know. This way he can stay in AAA as long as needed. Maybe he ends up in the pen, but they probably start him at Woo. Soxprospects.com projects this: MLB: Crochet, ______/Giolito, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison (kinda puzzling) w Criswell in the MLB pen. Crawford & Dobbins are listed as "Inactive." AAA: Tolle, Fitts, Early, Uberstine, Drohan & PB Starters: Perales, Jack Anderson & Isaac Coffey w Sandlin & Mullins in the AAA pen. They project the AA rotation as Holobetz, Wehunt, Paez, Clarke & Aita (E Rivera) w Dean & Rogers in the AA pen. A+: Valera, Fajardo, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Tygart & Neely (That's 7) A-: Travieso, J Bello, Y Ruiz, M Patton, D Brown, B Morgan Inactives: Monegro, Duffy, Judice & C Cason Something has to give: some will be moved to the pen, but some may be traded.

