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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. We lose Porcello, Xander, Pearce and Moreland and a year later, JBJ. This team would not be highly competitive. It wouldn't be a "cliff", but it wouldn't be a ring contender either. I think we reset after this year, but maybe after 2020. No Bogey, no JBJ, no Porcello, no Pearce & Moreland and no JD or Sale. Keeping JD and Sale puts us over the limit and prevents a reset. Keeping both while letting everyone else but Betts go does not win us another ring. I'd rather reset for one year, then spend large and turn the rebuild into a 1 year turnover. We keep Betts, Beni, Devers, ERod and maybe Eovaldi & Sale, so when we bounce back, we still have a strong core of vets.
  2. One winter while at ND, it never got above zero for like 19 days in a row! It was windy, too. While walking to class, I had to go through buildings to warm up. One time, in Maine, my ear froze as solid as a rock. The doc said it might turn black and fall off. It didn't.
  3. Betts- not even close.
  4. If you had to choose just one... $220M/7 Sale $220/9 Bogey
  5. Yes, that's how New England is every day of the summer. LOL! Come on, Boston is milder than the South and mid west in summer, and that's one reason why baseball is followed more fully in the north. Now that many southern cities have inside stadiums, we may see a trend reversal, but football will be hard to supplant in many areas.
  6. $24M x 9. I'd say a tough no, but it's not an easy call on what DD & Henry might do.
  7. Yes, but the northeast is better than the south, midwest and central climes.
  8. Other cities drew more than the Celtics during those years, even though they lost more.
  9. Yes, it is marginal but more than just for a year or two. With Moreland being hobbled for two years in a row, Pearce is nice insurance. Splits vs RHPs: Year Pearce Moreland 2013 .749 .752 2014 .856 .692 2015 .765 .876 2016 .795 .700 2017 .767 .784 2018 .890 .780 Red= significant differential 2014-2018 vs RHPs .802 Pearce .774 Moreland (+28 -A wider spread than "marginal.") 2016-2018 .789 Pearce (587 PAs) .755 Moreland (1248) (+34 -More than just "marginal.) Pearce has not been below .765 vs RHPs for the last 5 years. Moreland has been below .701 in 2 of the last 5 years.
  10. No doubt. The late arrival of spring and summer play a big role in that, but in terms of watching baseball, the northeast weather is better suited for mid summer viewing outdoors. (And, watching football outside in November & December less welcoming.)
  11. This is what soxprospects has projected for 2021, assuming no additions and all free agents depart... http://soxprospects.com/future.htm C Vaz/Swihart 1B Chavis 2B Pedey/MHernandez 3B Devers SS Chatham/Lin LF JD/Matheny CF Beni RF Castillo DH Dalbec SP Price Eovaldi ERod DHernandez BMata Pen Feltman Barnes Brasier Lakins Houck Shawaryn BJohnson
  12. Pearce has actually hit RHPs better than Moreland, lately and could see more playing time this year. He can DH, when JD sits or plays the OF and might see some starts at 1B vs righties, too.
  13. Not "totally" dedicated, but the northeast is certainly more baseball friendly than the south, central or western USA. That has to play a role in the numbers game. FYI, the Celtics did not draw all that well during their dynasty. They only drew more than 9,000 fans once from 1957 to 1971. The Pirates couldn't even sell out their World Series games in 1971 and 1979. They are a football town, and even the Penguins almost outdraw the Pirates!
  14. It's a risk, for sure, but we did get Eovaldi for pretty cheap last year and Reed for cheap the year before. It seems cheaper than a FA would cost.
  15. Yes, I agree. Here are the most likely candidates to fill some holes that might develop as some players possibly depart: 1B: Chavis, Dalbec, Casas, Travis (Moreland/Pearce) 2B: Lin, Chatham, Chavis, M Hernandez (Pedey, Nunez, Holt) SS: Lin, Catham (Bogaerts) OF: Lin, G Hernandez, Brentz, Travis, Metheny (JBJ) We could also extend or re-sign Holt and have him play 1B or OF. SP: Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, D Hernandez (Porcello/Sale)
  16. Just because it didn't work last year doesn't mean they will try to limit him more this year. They might, but they might not. If we have no major rotation injuries, we may slide Johnson or Velazquez in for a start or two, especially in April to give everyone an extra days rest. If we do that and yank Sale a little earlier each game, I can see him getting 170 easily. He got 158 last year while missing several starts all together.
  17. Northern Indiana has Chicago, Cleveland and Cincinnati to choose over Detroit. The South is football country. California is California. Atlanta should have all Georgia, parts of Florida and other surrounding states. Plus, they have TBS. I just don't think baseball is all that big in that area.
  18. Last year, our pen fWAR was 4.9, which placed 9th in MLB. So, you are saying this year our fWAR might be -4.1? Last year, the worst pens were -2.1 (MIA) and -2.2 (KC), while the 3rd worst was only -0.6 (NYM). Losing Kelly might be a wash. Losing Kimbrel will hurt, but not by 9 games. Relief Only PAs against lost over the winter: 285 Kelly (.662 OPS against in 2018) 247 Kimbrel (.565) 104 Pomeranz (.823) 74 Cuevas (.933) 64 CSmith (.744) 40 Scott (1.333) 35 Haley (.952) 12 Beeks (1.000) All we hear about is Kimbrel & Kelly, but losing the 320 PAs of the others is addition by subtraction, if these guys get more IP'd: 124 Brasier .482 265 Barnes .624 122 Wright .618 234 Velazquez .706 166 Johnson .723 167 Workman .705 260 Hembree .734 59 Walden .669 93 Poyner .770 We'd need better from this guy to make gains... 107 Thornburg .901
  19. I think they limit Sale's inning, like they did last year, even before the injury. 175-185 is probably what he will get with no time on the DL.
  20. Almost all of New Englanders are Sox fans. That adds to the fan base beyond the city and metropolitan area limits. There are also less transplant fans as there are in growing areas or areas where people go to retire (like Florida).
  21. It would be a huge boost, if Chatham could take over SS next year and do well enough to not be a net negative. If we can cover the loss of Moreland/Pearce with Chavis & Dalbec, we might be able to keep some other big names and not see a bad rebuilding stretch. Of course, the spending budget will have a lot to do with where we will be going forward.
  22. Pedey's PA total was the hardest to project. I left Swihart off the list as the word is we will keep just 2 catchers. If we trade or cut Leon, I might add 50 PAs to Vaz and give Swihart 190 PAs. On Sale, he still got 163 IP last year, counting the playoffs and had over 200 IP the three previous seasons. 180 might be low. I think these players were on the 60-day last year: Marco Hernandez Carson Smith Tyler Thornburg ? Dustin Pedroia Austin Maddox
  23. Yes, and they showed signs of being pretty competitive last year. If I was a Philly fan, I'd be excited about the next few years.
  24. We didn't really capitalize too much on our 3 last place finishes, except for the Beni draft pick in 2015. One could argue we did as good or better drafting after the 2013 championship season saw us picking 26th. Here are the notable picks those 4 years: 2013 (after our last place finish in 2012) 7- Trey Ball 45- Teddy Stankiewicz 81- Jon Denny 2014 (after winning it all) 26- Michael Chavis 33- Michael Kopech (Comp pick for Ellsbury) 67- Sam Travis (164- Ockimey/404- C. Shepherd) 2015 (after a last place season) 7- Andrew Benintendi 81- Austin Rei (171- T Lakins/411- Poyner) 2016 (after a last place finish) 12- Jay Groome 51- CJ Chatham 88- Shaun Anderson 118- Bobby Dalbec (148- Shawaryn)
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