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Everything posted by moonslav59
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ABS Challenge System Adopted by MLB for 2026
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They need to just go 100% robo umps and Balls & Strikes calls. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
MLB.com.... INJURY UPDATES OF Roman Anthony Injury: Left oblique strain IL date: Sept. 3 (10-day IL) Expected return: Mid rounds of postseason at earliest Status: The star rookie feels better moving around, but still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities and doesn't seem all that close. (Last updated: Sept. 23) https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/roman-anthony-exits-game-with-injury -
We had also won 3 straight up to Sept 2nd, Anthony's last game. Yes, we've been about .500 since then. BTW, OPS since Aug 1st: .851 Naylor (8HRS and 26 RBI in 172 PAs) .682 Suarez (11 Hrs and 24 RBI in 195 PAs) Our 1Bmen and Anthony replacements: .815 Lowe (2 Hrs and 14 RBI in 101 PAs) .787 Romy (2 HRs and 17 RBI in 147 PAs) .794 Eaton (1 HR and 10 RBI in 59 PAs) While the HR total are way unbalanced, the RBIs are 50 for SEA in 367 PAs and 41 RBIs in 317 PAs for BOS. I wish we had gotten Naylor and Ryan, but we didn't and Ryan has kinda sucked, so let's get over it.
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I see two flops, 3 Mehs and 2 hot teams. Here are some cherrypicked sample sizes: SEP 14th> 8-1 CLE 7-1 SEA 6-3 NYY 5-3 BOS 4-5 TOR 3-5 HOU 1-7 DET AUG 31> 16-5 SEA 17-6 CLE 13-8 NYY 12-9 TOR 11-9 BOS 8-13 HOU 6-14 DET AUG 21> 21-10 CLE (1-2 v BOS) 20-9 SEA 20-11 NYY (4-4 v BOS) 18-12 BOS 16-13 TOR (0-1 v BOS) 15-15 HOU 9-19 DET July 4th> 45-27 CLE 43-26 BOS 43-27 SEA 41-29 NYY & TOR 32-38 HOU (2-4 v BOS) 31-38 DET
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Like teams carry on tendencies from wholly different players from past debacles. Plus, why can't one view our team tendency of winning 4 times in less than 30 years, when a league with 30 teams should produce only 1 ring per 30 years? Interesting to view a team with 4 rings in 21 years as a flop. Our 50 Man roster (40+ 10 on 60 Day IL) Why does one or two team's ghost crowd out 4 teams' ghosts? Then, when you look at what "flop" actually means, it means a team with high expectations does not meet them, or a team that was way ahead of everyone, then fell apart at the end. The Sox are neither of those. I know what it's like to feel negative about the Sox chances. I was a fan from the early 70's and expected defeat and chokes like I expected the sun to rise. I get it, but yes, what is the basis for this example of a team? Our current 50 man roster (40+10 on 60 Day IL) has 42 players who weren't even on the 40 to start the 2022 season! 34 were not on the 40 on opening day 2023! Hell, Hendriks is #25 out of 50! 24 players were added after the 2024 season began, and that's not even counting the players, Like O'Neill, who came and went.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
5 games to go and we have a tenuous hold on the 4 slot in the AL. 2 games behind SEA and 3 behind NYY looks too hard to do anything about, especially since we do not play them. We are one up on DET & CLE, who play each other 2 more times. We have the tiebreaker w CLE but not DET. We are now 2 up on HOU and hold the tiebreaker, so they would have to gain 3 on us in 5 days. Another win or two vs TOR would do wonders for the nerves and anxieties. -
We were 2.5 out from 1st place, yes- now we are 4 out. We had the 4th best record inn the AL then, and still do, now. We were 3.5 up on team #6 and now we are 1 up. We are currently 2 up on team 7 with the tiebreaker (kinda like being 3 up) and were 5 up on team 7 on Sept 1st. A bit dramatic on the "choke" thing, right? A 2 game swing is not a choke. If anything, we've been pretty even over the system. We've had lots of small ups and downs with a couple or three more longer ups than downs. It looks, to me, like other team's have had more stark winning and losing stretches. Go SOX!
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10-9 in Sept is not a choke. You can keep saying it, but that doesn't make it real. 11-9 since Aug 31st and 15-11 since Aug 25th is not choking. 4 of last 6 is a real choke job. LMAO. You can will it to happen all you want, and maybe we do another down turn, like we have several times, this year, but nobody knows.
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Better than nothing but still not Robo Umps Now! https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026
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We may never know what offers were on the table. I find it hard to be so sure in criticizing Brez for not making deals we know nothing or very little about. My big "prize" was Joe Ryan, and he's done very little since the deadline. After the deadline was over I thought E Suarez was the big bat "prize," but he has not done great, either. 2 more reasons why I can't bring myself to say Brez blew it at the deadline. Do I wish he'd done better? Yes. I just can't say my ideas were any better, so I'll hold my tongue.
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I'll certainly admit I might be entirely too high on Holobetz, but he started in high A and was promoted to AA. He had a .657 OPSA for the Sox farm. soxprospects.com has him listed as the #1 AA SP'er, next year, ahead of Clarke, Aita and Paez. They also have Phillips starting the season as the #4 SP'er for the A+ team in 2026. I was happy we traded Yorke for Priester, and it did seem questionable to trade a pitcher in April. I just assumed they saw something they did not like or expect when they got him in the first place. I figured they had Fitts, Dobbins and even Newcomb ahead of him and expected Crawford & Sandoval later in the year. They seemed to have enough depth, and there are only so many slots on the 40 man roster you can set aside for SP'ers. We had 12-14 when the trade was made. That's about 1/3 of the whole roster. Again, I'm not defending the trade. In hindsight we keep him and move Newcomb to the pen, and we might be in first place, right now.
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SP's.com says... Fastball 94-96 "tops out at 98" with "heavy vertical movement." Cutter 87-90 "newer pitch" that "lacks depth." Slurve needs tweaking and "potential below-average offering." Changeup: used mostly vs RHBs. "potential fringe-average."
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I'm certainly on board if not driving the add a second ace type bandwagon. At least bring Gio back or the like (Keller?) I've been convince we also need a real big bat addition, too. IMO, we should trade for a pitcher and sign a bat. (I don't think bring Bregman back counts. We need a big bat plus Bregman or someone like Bregman, too.) Depending on who we have to trade away for that pitcher, I think I'd be fine with just two really meaningful additions, only. 3 Locks: Crochet, _____ & Bello Sandoval & Early would be the 4 & 5, unless they look awful in ST'ing. The rest could help the pen or be on the starter depth chart, or both. Dobbins, Crawford, Tolle & Harrison (Criswell & Perales) That's eleven starters, which about what we started this year with, but we have some pretty good minor league depth of near ready starters in AAA and AA, next season.
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We should have kept Wikelman.... LOL! We should have kept Wikelman! LOL Another one was Newcomb. We should have just moved him to the pen. Hey, when Holobetz and or Phillips win the Cy Young, I'll come back to this.
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Weissert will not be considered for a rotation slot. (Was that a typo?) Wink might have one last shot, but he's better in the pen. I see it like this: if healthy... Locks: Crochet, Bello His to lose: Sandoval Just don't look awful in ST'ing: Early Equal shots at the 5 slot: Dobbins, Crawford, Tolle & Harrison Extended depth (would have to WOW! in ST'ing) Criswell, Perales Minor League depth with a longshot: Uberstine, Mullins, Drohan, Holobetz, Clarke, Paez, Aita, Witherspoon, Phillips, Valera, Fajardo
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$48M is still a huge amount, and with one less pre-arb year, one can understand a drop. I'm not sure how much his injury history scares other GMs, but I'm sure some are not that interested, until he shows he's healthy, and maybe for 3 straight months or so (next deadline?) Others may still think he's worth $48-60M in trade value.
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And, at the same time, the farm got way better. We finally have some young pitchers and pitching prospects to talk about. Many of our young players are locked up, longtime- something Bloom was rightfully criticized for waiting too long to do. He even locked up Chapman. Of course, if he sucks next year, he'll be bashed for doing that, too. The only players from this team who are not under total team control for 2026 are: Bregman (opt out) Giolito (mutual option) Story (probably won't opt out) Wilson Refsnyder (might retire, return or go elsewhere) Hendriks, Matz & May While this list is significant, it is not as impactful as some we've seen in year's past. After 2026, it's just Whitlock, Sandoval & Lowe (assuming we offer him his last arb) To me, it's rather stunning how long we have control of a big chunk of our foundation at reasonable prices and projected arb costs. If JH opens up the wallet to fill a few key high need areas, the window can be wide open and long lasting.

