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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Bounce back from what? This? 5 IP 1 ER 5 IP 1 ER 6 IP 2 ER 6 IP 2 ER 5 IP 1 ER That's his last 5 starts in reverse order.
  2. moonslav59
    Hey harmony... Edgar Martinez's "The Double" in 1995 ALDS WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- The defining moment of Edgar Martinez's 18-year career with the Mariners has been replayed time and again, and for good reason. “The Double,” as it’s simply known to Mariners fans, did more than put Martinez on the national map 25 years ago, on Oct. 8, 1995. Many believe
  3. moonslav59
    I'm leaning towards after next season, but maybe this year exposed the writing on the wall, whether we rebound or not. We can reset by not re-signing any of our free agents, except maybe Holt and letting JD and/or JBJ go. Anytime we reset, it's going to be an "off year." The sooner we do it, the sooner we may get back to respectability after a 1-2 year "cliff" or valley. That would be a few prospects or min wage FAs filling some holes, but if we then re-sign Betts, we'd have a strong core to build back up with, and a fresh new max line to cross.
  4. moonslav59
    It is interesting that we are second in runs scored and 18th in HRs. Must be the excellent line-up construction!
  5. moonslav59
    I've been told the same about my incessant use of OPS, but even though I can see how people might think I am trying to end the debate by posting OPS all the time, I never mean it to be taken that way. Someone says, Betts is in a slump, and I say, "His OPS is .950 the last 14 days and .895 the last 30 days" does not mean the debate is over. It's just some numbers that support my position. Someone could replay, "He's at .550 the last 10 days." Someone can say, "JBJ is a below average defender, because his UZR/150 is -0.5." I can say, "But, it's +9.5 over the last 3 years, and he ranks 12th out of the top 30 CF'er in that time frame." The debate is never over. Is the debate over when someone says, "My eyes say JBJ is a top 5 OF'er?" Same thing: no.
  6. moonslav59
    Exactly, gotta mix it up and keep 'em guessing. If you never throw it high on those counts, then they won't be expecting it, anyways.
  7. moonslav59
    If we are indeed going to reset the tax this winter or next, we'll be keeping guys like Chavis who can play 2 positions that will be high need this winter.
  8. moonslav59
    We lived through Kimbrel's nail-biting outings. We'll be fine.
  9. moonslav59
    I feel badly you think I don't trust my own eyes. The eyes that see JBJ play and the yes that look at the numbers. First, dWAR, when used as instructed does NOT say JBJ is marginally better than a AAAA player. Second, how much do you really know about the other 29 CF'er's defense and just how good a AAAA CF'er is on defense? My guess is they may be mostly all glove no bat-type players and might be very close to JBJ on defense. Third, my eyes do think JBJ is better than average, and that's where the 3 year numbers place him. If he really is better than dWAR or UZR/150 says he is, and more like where we think he is, it doesn't mean the whole dWAR and UZR/150 is trash. It might just mean they got one wrong- maybe for some of the reasons discussed here, at length. I know I make a heck of a lot more mistakes than UZR/150 does, because I base my opinions on where JBJ ranks on watching 0-3 games a year for half the teams in MLB. Hell, I used to think Nomar was a good fielder. How many MLB fans think Jeter was a plus SS? I feel badly for them. They fell for an illusion based on a couple ESPN highlight reels.
  10. moonslav59
    The thing it does is a short cut: you are right. It tries to put all the stats and arguments into one number. "But, this guys has more power." "But, this other guy is a way better fielder." How do we know which one is more valuable and by how much? WAR attempts to weight each value in terms of how much it helps win a game. It reduces all 77 arguments about each area of skill into one number. It is flawed, and it should be a conversation ender, but it does offer useful information, IMO.
  11. moonslav59
    Can you name an everyday SS you've seen enough to call worse than Bogey? BTW, he's not listed as the worst, except for DRS. Out of 27 SSs with 400+ innings, Bogey places: 15th in UZR/150 at -0.5 (They have Crawford and 12 below him.) How about 2017-2019? 30 SSs with 1500+ innings Bogey ranks 16th in UZR/150 at 0.0 (Segura, Galvis, Swanson and A Escobar are just below him.) He ranks 30th in DRS.
  12. moonslav59
    Much of Chavis' WAR is fueled by his hot start. Abreu has a longer history. I don't think we need to target a 1Bman
  13. moonslav59
    Don't choke on it!
  14. moonslav59
    I must be confusing you with someone else. Maybe it was the "more I think about it" comment that through me off. Sorry.
  15. moonslav59
    I guess there's not much faith in Chavis, Holt & Marco.
  16. moonslav59
    Sarcasm or major policy shift?
  17. moonslav59
    5 or 6 seems to be the limit. 17 starts: 14 with 5.0 to 6.1 IP 1 with 7 IP 2 with 0.2 to 1.1 IP
  18. moonslav59
    Despite Vaz's 300 point lead on Leon, we win more when Leon catches.
  19. moonslav59
    Exactly. He could be fantastic. There's a good chance he will be. Maybe not 50%+ but a good chance. I do think the odds are better than 50-50 he'll be good to great. It's probably 3:1 he'll be better than what we've had, so far.
  20. moonslav59
    Plus, he got the playoff blues monkey off his back. fangraphs value dollars has him at $86.5M in 3.5 years- not counting the playoff value. That's about $24.5M/yr.
  21. moonslav59
    Price could be traded for another big (but less) salary, of we could include cash as part of the deal. Price is certainly tradeable, but it is very unlikely to happen.
  22. moonslav59
    Great points. Since Leon has been Sale's main catcher, one would expect Sale's poor record this year would harm Leon's winning %. It hasn't, this year. W-L in starts (Appearances) 2019 19-13 Leon (23-15) 34-34 Vaz (37-42) 2018 55-23 Leon (63-26) 46-21 Vaz (51-29) 2018-2019 combined GS'd 74-36 Leon .673 winning % 80-55 Vaz .593 wiining % OPS from 2018-2019 .702 Vaz (104 RBI+Runs- HRs) in 563 PAs .516 Leon (63) in 405 PAs
  23. moonslav59
    I'm not sure I've ever heard anyone claim WAR ends all discussion. Yes, some posters use it like it's gospel, but just looking at the discussions here, there are many factors to discuss within the WAR numbers. To me, it's way less than the never ending arguments about how much we should value HRs vs BA, RBIs vs OBP, SLG vs K Rates, what a SB is worth and what factor does SB% play in that value? It was always such a swirl of numbers to try and determine just how valuable a player is or how good a year is he having. WAR tries to simplify it into one number, but that doesn't mean that one number totally ends the debate.
  24. moonslav59
    In theory, to me, the number should not rely on how many plays are hit to the player or how many the RF'er takes away from the CF'er, if it is meant to determine how good the player is. However, the number is meant to capture what the player has done, and if the RF'er makes the play he could have made, he shouldn't get credit for just being there. It's like saying, "I was on deck for the walk off and should get some sort of credit for not getting a chance." Is JBJ really a worse defender because Betts gets to balls he could have caught, or because our staff Ks more batters or induces more GBs than other teams? Or, because there's this huge wall in short LF-CF that stops him from making some catches other CF'er make,because they play in a bigger park? I can see the argument being mad, and I think it has merit, but WAR is meant to capture what you have done not could have done. It places value on HRs vs singles or 2Bs. It places value on many factors all at once, something that is hard to do at the water cooler armed with 20 different stats.
  25. moonslav59
    I said reset after 2019 or 2020. I think we trade JBJ and extend Betts after the season starts, we stay under- assuming we reset this winter.
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