moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I totally agree with everything but the last sentence, although to some extent we do have to "sell high" like the Rays do, but just not to that extent. I've said all along, we need to find the best scouts and talent developers and spotters, or at least top 5. There is no evidence we have anywhere near that, now. What we did from 2003-2012 is behind us. We've had a pretty bad record drafting and signing IFAs since about 2012. I know the system has changed, but other winning teams find ways, and with the Yanks and Dodgers, it was by selling some top assets for prospects here and there. It's time to trade JD & JBJ, try to hope others like Eovaldi, Price, Sale and Barnes build up value to either help us rebuild or to become future trade assets to further our rebuilding efforts. None of that will matter, if we can't score some top prospects through the draft and IFA market.
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The article is based on old news (2007-2016) before all the changes made to the system and when we had different management and scouting teams.
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That's what Keuchel thought, and his "bad year" was better than Porcello's 2-3 off years.
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He might take $10-12M, but I'd think he might be worth $12M/2. $11M would really tighten the budget and would mean JBJ and someone else would have to go to reset, or trade JD.
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Gives us your number. It's easy to say, "I'd like Porcello back," but tell us what offer you'd make that he'd accept. Then, show how we reset by offsetting his contract with a DFA or contract traded.
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Yes, and Tomorrow is now today.
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Old news. The sample ends in 2016. You used to be able to draft "unsignable" prospects late in the rounds, becauee there were no spending limits in signing draftees. It's changed, dude! BIGTIME! The International FA system radically changed since then. There is bonus pool money and penalties to those who spend too much. We haven't drafted well while picking low in ages. We got Casas & Kopech since 2012. That's it. (Beni was a 7th pick.)
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Theo was operating under a different system. Give me just one "indication" the farm system will return to status quo? Is the new guy going to revamp our scouting & developing? Maybe, if we finish 30th a couple years in a row.
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Yes, and even $60M/3 for Betts was a steal.
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Come on, part of the reason was we rushed Devers to graduation, and we also kept Beni. Look, I said it was closer to decimated than "some" prospects were traded, and being ranked 30th for 2 straight years certainly can be called decimated, but we look like we might have 2-3 guys in the top 100 in the next rankings, so maybe we are just arguing semantics. Here were the top Sox prospects, when DD took over: 1. Moncada 2. Devers 3. Espinoza 4. Margot 5. Beni 6. Guerra 7. Kopech 8. Johnson 9. Travis 10. Marerro 11. Chavis (5 of top 11 were not traded.) ERod & Barnes had just graduated months earlier and Swihart and Owens fell off the table shortly after DD took over, but they were not traded.
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It's not that simple. We need better scouts than other teams have. The system has changed, and it is much harder for winning teams and teams spending over the tax line to acquires top prospects. Just look at the IFA market. We've sucked for several years now, so I'm not sure where the "adept at signing good prospects" is coming from. The last meaningful IFA signing was Velazquez way back in Feb 2017. Before that it was Castillo and Espinoza in 2014. You have to go back to 2013 and the Devers signing to see where we struck gold. As for drafting, the jury is still out, but I trust the rankings that show we are bottom 8, at best.
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Actually, our home grown players far out-weighed our FAs in all our championship seasons, so I'm not sure I'd say "biggest factor." Winning while not being the top spender just feels better, to me. Of course, winning is most important. I'd rather win with Henry spending $300M than not winning, but I think you know what I mean. (Maybe not, being a Yankee fan and all.)
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If we are going to reset, we will be scraping the walls to find a dollar here and a dollar there. Is Porcello really someone we want in our short term or long term plans? Signing him, even to a team friendly deal, would almost certainly mean someone else goes or is not signed. I'm not even sure we can afford $10M/2, and I seriously doubt he takes anywhere near that. What offer are you thinking we can afford, and he'll take?
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lol!
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Well put. Maybe they can have a few extra during a ring push, but expect some valleys in between.
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Whatever Henry chooses to do is fine with me. He's the best thing that happened to the Sox, and it's not even close. It was great that he spent so much to bring us rings, but part of me felt like it was getting out of hand, and we were becoming the modern day Yankees. I don't want other teams saying, "They win because the buy championships." In some sense, almost every team that has won has spent big on a FA (or a few), but we were blowing other teams away with our spending- like the Yanks of old. I'm hopeful we get back to spending after we reset, but I'd rather see us win without being the top spender (like 2004 and 2007), if we can. Of course winning while spending large is still nice, but I think you know what I mean. Reset. Build the farm back to at least mediocrity. Spend on a few key players. Get back to glory as quickly as possible within the framework of a reset and avoidance of max penalties.
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Betts>> JD We may end up losing both, but even if we could keep JD and Betts, if we reset, we'll be severely restricted in any other moves wanted or needed. Losing JD will hurt big time, but it is what it is. Call it a cliff. Call it a rebuild. Call it what you will. But it's time to pay for that 2018 ring.
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CRACIN: a keeper? 15 game winner for Milwaukee
moonslav59 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So, now there's no trading Sox players that are due to be fAs, either? This is no fun! -
I'd say "decimated" is closer to reality than saying "some depth was lost." Both are off the mark.
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More like Cashner, Weber, Chacin and Johnson. IP ER Pitcher 54 37 Cashner 41 23 Weber 40 27 Johnson 15 12 Chacin Total 149 IP 99 ERs Replaced by 148 IP -8 ERS That's a 107 ER swing. Lot's of ifs, and if the Yankee starters had 100% health, they'd have won more, too.
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Including Eovaldi in the equation is problematic. His career norm is all over the map and includes much missed time similar to 2019.
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Average pitching? We had above average pitching by almost any measure. Out of 30 teams, we ranked... 12th in WAR 13th in xFIP 14th in ERA- 14th in K/BB 20th in WHIP Now, if you are talking about just Sale, Price and Porcello having a career norm season in 2019, instead of what they had, then yes, we'd have won way more games. It might be close to 12-13 more wins. Sale: before 2019: 2.89 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 7 years) Add 53 IP and 10 less ERs to his totals Price before 2019: 3.25 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 9 years) Add 83 IP and 21 more ERs Porcello before 2019: 4.26 ERA (31 GS/186 IP last 10 years) Add 12 IP and 19 less ERs. Total: +148 IP - 8 ERs That's very significant, because those 148 IP would be subtracted from most of our worst pitchers.
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How did we do by position? Team Positional WAR: 3rd SS (6.6) 0.9 from 2nd 6th RF (6.4) 0.4 from 4th 6th 3B (5.9) 0.3 from 4th 6th DH (2.8) 0.7 from 4th 10th C (3.2) 0.2 from 7th 19th CF (1.4) 1.1 from 13th 25th LF (0.9) 0.6 from 20th 25th 1B (-0.4) 1.1 from 20th 28th 2B (-0.1) 1.1 from 20th 12th in pitching (16.5) .04 from 11th 5th in RP'ing (5.5) 1.4 from 4th 14th SP'ing (11.0) 0.9 from 10th 9th in Defense (13.3) 5.9 from 8th 7th in UZR/150 (3.4) .02 from 6th 23rd in DRS (-36) 20 from 22nd
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Some numbers on Vaz. Since 2003, Vaz just placed... 4th in PAs (521) 3rd in HRs (23) 25 by VTek ('03) & Salty ('12) 4th in RBI (72) 85 VTek ('03), VMart 79 ('10), VTek 73 ('04) 6th in OPS (.798)
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A look at some 2019 Sox numbers: We came 1 HR short of having four 30 HR players: 36 JD 33 Bogey 32 Devers 29 Betts 23 Vaz 21 JBJ 19 Moreland 18 Chavis 13 Beni XBH Leaders: 90 Devers 85 Bogey 74 Betts 71 JD 58 Beni OPS (PAs listed if not qualified) .939 Bogey .939 JD .916 Devers .915 Betts .835 Moreland (335) .798 Vaz .774 Benu .771 Holt (295) .766 Chavis (382) .738 JBJ .656 Travis (157) .617 Marco (155) .548 Leon (191) .548 Nunez (174) .503 Pearce (99) ERA- 39 Workman 63 Taylor 78 Barnes 79 ERod 79 Walden 80 Hembree 85 Brewer 89 Price 91 Sale 92 DHern 100 Brasier 105 Weber 113 Velazquez 114 Porcello 120 Smith 124 Eovaldi 125 Johnson 129 Cashner WHIP 1.03 Workman 1.09 Sale 1.18 Taylor 1.19 Walden 1.29 Brasier 1.31 Price 1.33 ERod 1.38 Barnes 1.39 Porcello 1.53 Velazquez 1.58 Eovaldi 1.62 Cashner 1.70 Brewer xFIP 2.93 Barnes 2.93 Sale 3.33 Workman 3.37 Taylor 3.57 DHern 3.73 Price 4.10 ERod 4.17 Walden 4.89 Eovaldi 5.14 Porcello
