moonslav59

Yup, their cliff is now looming.

Yes, on empty stomachs.

Maybe not as massive as we once thought.

So will Cole (maybe in a year or two).

If he was on the Sox, you'd be shocked.

...and people were calling me nuts for suggesting $350M/10.

I thought $100M in penalties seemed way too high.

$350/10 for Betts would look like a bargain, now.

On resetting... The incentives for the Boston Red Sox to slip under the luxury tax line in 2020 are manyfold, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Because of higher penalties for repeat offenders, Boston could save themselves close to $100MM in tax penalties over the course of the next three seasons. Of course, to do so, they’ll need to get under the $206MM tax line. Another benefit takes into account a worst case scenario. Should Mookie Betts sign elsewhere as a free agent next year, the Red Sox could improve their compensation from a pick after the fourth round to a pick after the second round. They could also miss out on a potentially hefty revenue sharing rebate that will come from the phase out of Oakland’s revenue-sharing subsidies. Oakland’s market size has been superseded by lack of revenue, thus placing them among the revenue-sharing recipients, but their free ride is coming to an end. That money will be dispersed among the large-market, revenue-sharing contributors, perhaps proportionately so. That would be a boon for the Red Sox, but they risk forfeiture of the reward if they continue to spend over the tax. Hence, the David Price auction rolls ever onward.

He may have a slight potential to return to "top of rotation" status, but he is not there now.

Teams who really need pitching and miss out on the FAs they want may come back with a better offer for Price or Eovaldi.

One could argue Price is worth $9.5M a year and Myers is worth -$17M a year. Sounds like an even trade.

Returning to reality.

Winter Action from soxprospects.com... Marco Hernandez had a very solid week, going 5 for 13 with a double, two RBI, and two runs. His week included a 4-for-6 showing at the plate on Thursday. Jeremy Rivera was on fire this past week, going 8 for 16 with a pair of two-baggers, three runs, two RBI, two walks, and just two strikeouts. Hector Velazquez appeared in a pair of games and logged just 1 1/3 innings, allowing three runs (zero earned) on one hit with one strikeout and two walks. These two outings were the first two relief outings for Velazquez this winter. Colin Willis had a 2-for-6 week to keep his season batting average at .450. He's 9 for 20 with three walks this winter, giving him an OBP of .522.

Indeed!

He's not listed on soxprospects, so I think you are right. They have "acquisition" listed for the 2020 projected catcher 2 slot and the #1 AAA catcher slot.

That's very true in this particular case, but he did not lose money on the whole deal.

Yes, I forgot we added Chatham before the rule 5 draft. We have no 2nd catcher on the 40 man roster, right now.

That wasn't your point. My guess is the current owner will make a killing when selling, too. Forbes estimates the $2B turning into $2.8B.

True, but we could go... 1B: Dalbec/Chavis 2B: Chavis/Lin/Marco SP: Velzaquez/Dhern or "opener" C: Centeno

I just read, MCCourt made $2 billion on the sale. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2013/06/15/how-frank-mccourt-made-2-billion-from-the-los-angeles-dodgers-and-team-remains-saddles-with-debt/#6ecbc57a1249

It's actually not far from what the team has done in the past. Paid tax 4 yrs (2004-2007) No tax 3 yrs (2008-2010) Paid tax 2 years (11-12) No tax 3 yrs (12-14) Paid tax 2 yrs (15-16) No tax 1 yr (2017) Paid tax 2 yrs (18-19) Maybe no tax 2020 Since 2013, it's been 1-2-1-2 and 1 if we reset in 2020.

It appears, in hindsight, like we should have reset in 2019, but the plan I mentioned calls for a 2020 reset, since we reset in 2017 (a 93 win season, I might add).

Well, in an ideal world, you'd have a key contract or two run out every 3 years. If your farm is decent, you can fill those holes from within and stay somewhat competitive that reset year. Remember, spending $1M under the line should still afford you a good chance at winning, as long as you have no big dud contracts dragging you down. I never said it would be easy, but spending large 2 of 3 years and still spending big that reset year should be a recipe for continued success. Just don't ever trade the farm away, again, and try not to sign the next David Price or Eovaldi. (Easier said than done, I know.)

I'd rather you sign him, so our long term chances at besting the Yanks would improve. If he gets away, our shorter term chances may be better, but you guys will just spend the money elsewhere. If you spread out the money, it will likely make you better- short and long term. (Don't tell Nick I said this, because he'll turn it on me over the resigning Betts issue.)