moonslav59

I'm all for getting rid of every player not part of the 2021 and beyond plan. I'd keep Cora and dump DD for the rebuild. I'd try to set us up to be back to contention by 2021, but I realize it may take longer. I'm not sure about trading ERod, Workman and Barnes- all FAs after 2021, but it makes some sense, if we really want to totally rebuild. They all have trade value, unlike some of our FA's to be after 2020, Betts not included. (I'd look to trade Betts, if we think we can't re-sign him after the reset of 2020.) As for the "blame," I'm not big on it either, but I'd say... 1) The rotation 2) The pen 3) The GM 4) The Yanks, Astros, Rays and Twins just got so much better.

No fan should care at this point. No fan wants to see Porcello or Cashner pitch another game for the Sox.

I totally go with playing any player we need to find out more about their level for next year and beyond. That includes Travis, Marco, Chavis and if ready for the bigs, Dalbec, Ockimey, Chatham, Centeno, Lin and Gorkys Hernandez. If Houck is ready, bring him on! Poyner, Brasier and Shawaryn could also get some looks. I'd stretch DHern back to a starter by September. I'd look long and hard at Brian Johnson and Velazquez to see if they are worth keeping around, assuming they show life. I would not burn Workman or ERod out. I'd bench Price(IL?) & Porcello and limit Sale's pitches. I'd give Barnes a complete physical to see WTF. Let 'em, play.

Any player you draft in 2020 will be entering their first full season of pro ball in 2021. So it isn't like they're going to be making a major impact by then. Yes, that's why I said beyond 2022. I just re-read the rules for the IFA. The sox will have $4.75 mil to spend as they are not a competitive balance team and likely will not sign a qualifying offered FA. The IFA rules are slanted to help small market clubs. $4.75 mil for non comp balance teams (large markets), $5.25 mil for teams in comp balance A teams and $5.75 mil for comp balance B teams. A team over the lux tax who signs a qualifying offered FA loses $1 mil off their budget. A team below the cap who signs a QO offered FA forfeits $500K from the cap. You can now trade for up to 60% of your cap, where in years past it was 90%. So the sox are going to be in the same tax pool as they are currently. Any short term teardown would need to hit on every single player acquired and they all need to be in close proximity to the majors. Not impossible, but nearly impossible. I understand the fan in you wanting to hope this is a one year thing. Heck, I did too back in 2013. But you have to realize that any tear down is going to be a multi season process. We cannot repeat the AGon, CC and Beckett deal that led to a quick turnaround for 2013. I get that, but when you have a team that can and will spend $39.9M over the luxury tax, you don't ever have to have a total "tear down" just like the Yankees have done. (Teams like the Rays and Astros did that. They were real bad & drafted high before they became good. In a sense a true rebuild is never really complete unless you rebuild your farm. I know that will be hard to do with just 2 years of mediocre draft picks (2020 and 2021- after the assumed reset 2020 year that will leave us with a bad to avg, record.) We can keep the core of young players: Bogey, Devers, Vaz and maybe ERod & Barnes. We can hope Sale, Eovaldi and/or Price still have something in the tank in 2021 (not unlikely 1-2 do well). We can reset after 2019 and spend very large in 2021, and if a bunch of stuff goes right, we can be competitive in 2021 AND have a better, but not great, farm.

I joined that "other site" back in 2005 after moving to Mexico City and being away from all Sox talk. I never knew you had something called "Realistic View." Do I owe you any royalties? Some of those threads were epic (10,000+ posts).

Yes, just limit his pitch count.

I'd guess no, but what happened to Keuchel & Kimbrel, who knows?

It's not hard to understand. We were a beaten and defeated team after the sweeps. It was over then just as much as it is over now. Yes, miracles happen, but this team has shown no signs of having miracle worthiness.

I never said the Yankee pen was not the best. I just pointed out that several numbers show other teams are close or even better in some area. IMO, the Yanks have the best pen- just like the Sox have a better rotation, despite several meltdowns. I have no problem saying the Yanks are better is some areas.

Speaking of doing better lately, numbers from May 1 to now: ERA- Pitcher 75 ERod 81 Sale 97 Price 100 German 106 Paxton 107 Tanaka 116 Sabathia 119 Porcello 124 Happ n/a Severino Since June 1st 73 ERod 93 Sale 103 German 117 Price 118 Paxton 132 Tanaka Since July 1st: 57 ERod 94 German 97 Paxton 124 Sale 136 Price 149 Tanaka I guess it depends on how much "recent" you want to go back. And, if you want to change the criteria (again) to recent numbers, then ERod blows away German, Sale beats Tanaka in every sample size, and Price beats Paxton in 2 of the 3 sample sizes.

The season's not over for Sale, either, but you've already written his whole future off.

Tampa's number's aren't "skewed", too? The Sox have often used the 5th starter for 1-3 IP, regardless of how well they were doing.

There is no countdown to the playoffs with this team. To me, there is not even a countdown to elimination. We were eliminated after the sweeps. It's time to play the kids and boost our draft slot pick. I'll never root for us to lose, but we should play the kids and let the losses come without bitching about any losses going forward.

I'm not arguing about how the juiced ball has ruined baseball. My point is the juiced ball is making pitchers look awful- even the same ones that were great 1-3 years ago-- like Sale. Sure, pitchers need to throw inside more, but that trend did not originate overnight.

Cora has realized it's time to lose and raise our draft pick slot. Genius!

Yes. $19M/1yr looks like a no-brainer, unless we choose this winter as the reset year.

Why expect him to stay healthy? Why is loss of velo the only clue that decline is taking place, especially as he heads into post 30 territory? Why expect 29 year old numbers at 31, when he has shown decline and continuing injury issues? Is it because he's a Yankee? You expected a lot out of Happ, this year, too, and we got into it last winter. It seems to me, your expectations are as rosy or more about the Yankee pitcher as mine are for the Sox pitchers.

Lester is still pitching well. Beeks is doing okay. Logan Allen and Kopech may do well. But yeah, we need to find someone who knows how to identify great young pitchers and someone who can develop them better than we have. We can spend big on FAs, so why can't we spend big on top minds?

Many of those same pitchers are still around. Even the ones that are still in prime, now mostly "suck".

He's not a Yankee, so he doesn't count.

I've heard the walk year argument too many times. It's not always a good thing. Paxton's lack of innings and GS'd over his career would be a concern to you, if he was a Sox player. Sale's "stuff" can drop quite a bit and still be better than Paxton's stuff. (Price still has very good "stuff," too.) Some Paxton info: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=11828&position=P&statArr=6&legend=1&split=base&time=season&ymin=&ymax= Last 3 seasons xFIP 3.25> 3.02> 4.26 FIP 2.61>3.24>4.26 ERA- 71>93>94 WHIP 1.10>1.10>1.43 HR/9 0.60>1.29> 1.60 BB/9 2.45>2.36>3.43 K/BB 4.22>4.95>3.33 Somehow, I have to believe, if he was a Sox pitcher, you'd be claiming he is on the decline. I'm not sure how you get that worse without having worse "stuff" than the last 2 years.

Oh, I'm not downplaying the epic fail of 2019. We did win 2 more games than the Yanks in 2017. I don't hold our loss against the Astros in the playoffs, while the Yanks beat the Twins in the WC game and Guardians in the nexxt round against us.

I'm still clinging to the idea that by resetting and spending very large in 2021, we can keep the "rebuild" to one year. I know we cannot expect to rebuild the farm by having just one down year, but we may get a decent draft slot this year and next, plus a little more international pool money to at least begin to get better on the farm, which may start helping beyond 2022.

Bogey should not be on the list, since he will still be in prime when the expected rebuild to greatness occurs. Devers and Vaz are keepers, too. Anyone not under team control beyond 1-2 years would be up for trade. Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and maybe Holt are gone (last year). Betts. JBJ, Workman & Wright (FAs after 2020). (Some could be brought back for 2021.) FAs after 2021 are close calls: ERod, Barnes & Hembree Anyone under team control but that will be significantly beyond prime in 1-2 years could be up for trade. Price, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Sale

Okay, that is more realistic. Id say Price & Paxton are close to a toss-up, but I can understand anyone liking Paxton better, especially looking at Price's recent trend. I tend to look at 2-3 year sample size and trends, which also show Price in decline, but Paxtons huge drop off this year looks more concerning, to me, than Sale's, who has other numbers that show he is not really having such an awful season as you make it out to be. Paxton has also only started more than 24 games one and more than 20 twice. At age 30, that has to be a ding on his value. Last 5 seasons' IP'd: 803 Price (3.47 ERA/ 1.17 WHIP) largely in a hitter's park 587 Paxton (3.71/1.24) largely in a pitcher's park. Last 2 seasons: 281 Price (3.87/1.21) ERA+ 117* 263 Paxton (4.01/1.23) ERA+ 105* * Includes park adjustments