moonslav59

I can agree to this, but I thought it was implied I meant only "so far this year."

MLB.com is not one of the best ranking entities.

Nice spin. We'll have to agree to disagree.

Here's a look at what the Rays have gotten for their best pitchers: (Listed by highest career WAR with the Rays) Pitcher- (ERA w TB/ after TB) Shields 3.89/4.17 with Wade Davis for Odorizzi, Wil Myers & Mike Montgomery Price 3.19/3.34 for Drew Smyly, Willy Adams & Nick Franklin Archer 3.67/5.15 (see Garza trade as the gift that keeps giving) for Tyler Glasnow & Austin Meadoes Kazmir 3.92/4.20 for Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres & Matthew Sweeney Cobb 3.50/5.36 (2 yrs) Lost to free agency Garza 3.86/4.17 with F Perez & Z Rosscup for Chris Archer, R Chirinos, B Guyer & S Fuld Ordorizzi 3.85/3.78 (2 yrs) for Jermaine Palacios Niemann 4.06 Never traded MMoore 3.86/5.78 for Michael Santos, Matt Duffy & Lucious Fox Hellickson 3.74/4.49 for Justin Williams & Andrew Velazquez

What makes the idea work even better for the Rays is that they trade their good SP'ers, usually just before they decline, for more prospects. Then, they replace the guy with a (usually better) rookie.

Yes, exactly!

Come on. This guy was great for you guys last year and has these ERAs since 2015: 3.61 3.18 3.53 3.65 (2.69 with the Yanks) 4.59 this year WHIP last year 1.13 WHIP this year 1.21 He's doing significantly worse than last year, 2017, 2016 and 2015. And, he's doing worse that you expected him to be doing.

I agree, and if Eovaldi comes back, and our starters keep going deeper in games, that alone can take a lot of stress off the pen. Move Eovaldi to the pen for the playoffs. I'd still like to see us get a solid RP'er this summer. Our 11th-13th pitcher on the roster has killed us this year: ERA by "6th & higher" Starters As SP'er only (Games Started/IP): 6.41 Velazquez (7/19.2) 7.94 R Weber (3/11.1) 9.82 J Smith (2/7.1) 3.00 Johnson (1/3.0) 9.00 D Hern (1/3.0) "6th & higher" RPers (list in order of most IP) As RP'er (IP/WHIP) 4.22 Brewer (32/1.72) 4.74 Velazquez (19/1.37 7.71 Thornburg (19/1.66) 0.90 Shawaryn (10/0.90) 5.79 Lakins (9/1.71) 6.48 J Taylor (8/1.56) 1.13 R Weber (8/1.13) 2.57 J Smith (7/1.29) 13.50 Johnson (6/2.83) 15.75 Poyner (4/3.26) 12.00 E Ram(3/1.67) 0.00 D Hern (2/2.14) 9.00 Nunez (1/1.00) These numbers are horrendous. Other than Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brasier & Hembree, we have sucked badly. Overall numbers of those not listed in the top 10 (if you discount Brewer, it is even worse): (Only Velazquez & Brewer are in our top 10 in IP.) IP Pitcher ERA 39 Velazquez 5.59 32 Brewer 4.22 19 R Weber 5.12 19 Thornburg 7.71 14 J Smith 6.28 10 Shawaryn 0.90 9 Lakins 5.79 9 Johnson 10.00 8 J Taylor 6.48 5 DHern 5.06 4 Poyner 15.75 3 ERam 12.00 1 Nunez 9.00 If we could pick up a solid RP'er, we could move everyone down a notch and drop some of these guys right off the play list.

If I were Houston, I'd trade Paul for a bag of popcorn, if the other team pays his whole contract, which I believe is $37M next year and the year after.

I remember saying he was due for a set back year, and you disagreed.

I always thought there should just be one Florida team with half the games played in Miami and half in TB. This is weird. Move TB to Montreal and have the Marlins play half in MIA and half in TB...change their name to the Florida Marlins.

The Devers & Vaz gains should just about offset the declines by JD & Betts. The gain by Bogey offsets the decline by Beni. Moreland's gain is not helping us now that he's on the IL, but he and Leon should just about offset the declines by JBJ & Nunez. To me, it's not been about OPS. It's been about timely hitting. 2018> 2019 OPS .792>.787 Runs/gm 5.4>5.4 High Leverage .854>.822 Late & Close .786>.835 RISP .872>.786 2 outs, RISP .840>.801 Tie Game .794>.783 Within 1 Run .779> .772

True, except if the regular season placed you in a WC game instead of a division winner slot.

I'd say it "had been" fine. I'm not sure if is going forward.

Did you look at mt my game by game breakdown of our starters vs our pen? Are there any games you disagree with my assignment of who gets the credit or blame? I'm not saying my study was perfect, but the disparity is so massive, it's hard for me to see how I could have been that wrong-- enough to swing it the other way.

What constitutes something being called a "strength?" Is it just being above average or above the mean? Is being top 10 out of 30 teams? Our pen ranks top 10 in just about every meaningful measure. In several important categories we are top 3 or 4. (We're #1 in K/9 rate.) We are not top 10 in Save %. We rank 26th at 53%. However, our pen is 2nd in inherited runner scoring % at 25%, and we are 7th in Holds. If the question is, "Has our pen been a top 10 pen, so far this year?" I'd answer yes. To me, that makes it a "strength" to date. Going forward, I have a different opinion. I think our pen needs a solid addition or two, and the sooner the better, especially if Hembree is not coming back. If Eovaldi is not coming back, we could use a solid addition there as well. Saves + Holds 75 NYY (10 BS) 69 TBR (9 BS) 58 BOS (16 BS)

2018 vs 2019 Improving OPS +254 Vaz +133 Devers +101 Moreland +71 Leon +45 Bogey +18 Holt Declining OPS -42 Beni -43 JBJ -106 Nunez -123 JD -228 Betts -398 Pearce

Top Sox OPS 2018 and 2019 2018 in RED 150+ PAs 1.078 Betts 1.031 JD .928 Bogey .908 JD .901 Pearce (165 PAs) .883 Bogey .864 Devers .859 Moreland (174) .830 Beni .799 Chavis .794 Vaz .778 Beni .774 Holt .758 Moreland .731 Devers .717 JBJ .708 HRam (195) .677 Nunez .676 JBJ .613 Swihart .604 Kinsler(143) .582 Leon (88) .561 Nunez (134) .540 Vaz .511 Leon While 4 of the top 6 hitters were in 2018, we have way less on the low end, this year. Only 3 of the bottom 13 are from 2019.

I remember differently, when last winter, I was questioning Happ and CC. You kept bringing up Happ's great, recent numbers.

By my methodology: Starters 16-22 Relievers 25-13 It's not even close to date.

League rankings: Stat Pen-- SP I P 7th- 14th WAR 6th- 8th ERA- 5th- 13th WHIP 11th- 14th xFIP- 6th- 7th K/BB 9th- 5th K/9 1st- 5th The only category our starters have outperformed our pen is K/BB. All of this being said, I'd rather see us trade for a solid pen arm than a starter. My only point is that, so far, our pen has helped us win more games and avoid losing more games that our rotation. This does not mean the same will be true going forward. Our starters have improved a lot, and if Eovaldi returns our rotation should be fine going forward.

The Yankee rotation has been bad, at times, this year. Their pen has been great. Just because our pen has not been as good as theirs does not mean it's ourpen's fault we are 7 down. Our pen has been a net plus this year. Our offense has lost more games than our pen, despite being among the league leaders in runs scored. Our starters have improved greatly since the first 3-4 weeks, but they have not been responsible for most of our wins as compared to our pen. We seem to remember the blown saves a lot more than the 7.9 IP 0 ER games from our pen. My analysis of each game may be flawed in several ways, but the conclusion is so stark, it is hard to think a different methodology would flip the script. Here's another look: Our pen is 7th in IP, so they've been used more than most teams, including the Yanks by over 21 innings. Rankings WAR 1. NYY 3.6 3. TBR 3.4 6. BOS 2.9 ERA- 3. TBR 80 5. BOS 82 6. NYY 86 WHIP 7. TBR 1.24 8. NYY 1.25 11. BOS 1.30 xFIP- 1. NYY 86 6. BOS 92 9. TBR 97 K/BB 5. NYY 2.87 9. BOS 2.69 11. TBR 2.66 K/9 1. BOS 10.6 2. NYY 10.2 23. TBR 8.9 Our pen has been clearly a plus any way you look at it, except BS, of which we have had a few games where we've had 2-3 Blown Saves within them. Now, the Starters: (Whileour SP'er do look better than the Yanks, and their pen looks better than ours, when you compare them to the league, as a whole, our pen holds up nicely to our rotation.) IP 14. BOS 396 21. NYY 377 29. TBR 332 WAR 3. TBR 8.7 8. BOS 7.5 11. NYY 6.8 8. BOS ERA- 2. TBR 67 (way less IP) 8. NYY 87 13. BOS 95 (about average) WHIP 2. TBR 1.04 8. NYY 1.23 14. BOS 1.26 (about average) xFIP- 1. TBR 76 7. BOS 91 9. NYY 94 K/BB 3. TBR 4.0 5. BOS 3.5 8. NYY 3.3 K/9 2. TBR 10.1 5. BOS 9.6 8. NYY 8.9 Clearly, our pen has been much better than the average MLB team, and our Starters have been much closer to average than most teams. Comparing us to the Yanks, who have a great pen and not so great SP'ers, and then blaming our losses more on the pen is misleading.

Since game 59... (Note: the offense is not factored into this analysis. Wins and losses are attributed to the SP'er or the pen based mostly on ERA.) 60: W8-3 KCR: ERod put us in a hole 2-0, but we scored 3 in the 6th to get him the win: SP 5.2 2 ER/ RP 3.1 1ER - Slight edge to RP 61: W 8-0 KCR: Chris Sale pitched shut out: SP all the way. 62: W 7-5 KCR: Pen game. Weber started (1.1 IP 2 ER). The pen: 7.2 IP 3 ER. Pen gets the win. 63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 6 IP 4 ER/ Pen 3 IP 1 ER: loss edge to SP 64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith (4 IP 4 ER)/ Pen 5 IP 4 ER- 4 in 9th after game was already lost) Edge loss to SP. 65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 6 IP 1 ER/ Pen 3 IP 0 ER: Win goes to both. (+0.5) 66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 5.2 IP 4 ER/ Pen 4.1 IP 2 ER: Loss goes to SP 67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 7 IP 0ER/ Pen 4 IP 3 ER: Loss goes to pen. 68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3 IP 3 ER/ Pen 6 IP 5 ER: I'll call this a tie loss. 69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 6.2 IP 2 ER/ Pen 2.1 IP 0 ER: Edge to pen. 70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 1.1 IP 6 ER/ Pen 7.9 IP 0 ER: Clear win to pen 100%! 71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 7 IP 1 ER/ Pen 2 IP 1 ER: Clear win for SP. 72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 6IP 2 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Edge to RP 73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 3 IP 1 ER/ Pen 7 IP 3 ER. Edge to SP despite just 3 IP. 74: W 2-0 MN: Porcello 7 IP 0 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER. SP gets win. 75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 5 IP 1 ER/Pen 11.1 3 ER. Pen gets loss. 76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 7 IP 4 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Win to pen. Last 17 games: Wins: 6.5 Pen 4.5 Pen Losses: 3.5 SP 2.5 Pen Net: +1.0 SP +4.0 Pen All 76 games: Wins 16 SP 25 RP Losses 22 SP 13 RP Net: -6 SP +13 RP

I went through the first 59 games- one by one- and found our pen did better than the starters way more times. 29 Losses: 18.5 are more the starter's fault 10.5 are more the reliever's fault 30 Wins: 11.5 are more due to the starter 18.5 are more due to the reliever Net: SP: -7.0 RP: +8.0

Using just ERA and BS as a measure for RP'ers is not what I would use. RP'ers often come in with 1-2 outs, so their ERA is skewed by not needing to get 3 outs an inning. Even ERA- or ERA+ is better and we are 5th in ERA-. Our pen has been a strength, so far. That says nothing about going forward. Yes, I hope they do well going forward, but I would not bet on it. Comparing us to the best pen in MLB (perhaps MLB history) is not a good comp. Every team would pale vs their numbers. Compare us to the league average, and you'll see we are a clear plus. Not great but much better than average.