moonslav59

JBJ is usually a late season hitter. It's the wrong time to trade him, and we have no in house replacement.

At this pace, he'll be above his career OPS by tomorrow!

I think the plan is Wright soley in relief.

Notable DD draftees: 2016: Dalbec Jay Grrome Chatham Shawaryn Not bad considering where we were slotted (12th, 51, 88, 118, 148). 2017: Houck 24 Brannen 63 Scherff 161 Not so good but bad slots 2018 Casas 26 Decker 64 Feltman 100 Ward 160 Granberg 190 J Duran 220 Actually, apparently a very good draft considering the slots.

Maybe this strategy will pay off in August, September and the playoffs as our starters should be more rested than other playoff teams, and if we acquire 1-2 solid RP'ers, then the early overuse of the pen may not be a factor later in the year. We're almost at the half way point, and many of the pen innings pitched are by scrubs who should not be on any playoff roster. Let's look at IP by our likely (or possible) playoff relief pitchers as compared to 2018. 2018 IP RP'er 2019 IP x 2 99 Johnson 28 (14 x 2) 85 Velazquez 88 62 Barnes 66 60 Hembree 58 (On IL now) 54 Wright 0 (Suspended in 2019) 41 Workman 72 34 Brasier 63 (Only played 1/2 season in 2018) 15 Walden 84 (Was only on the team a short time in '18) Workman and Barnes are on pace for more IP than 2018, but 66 and 72 IP are not out of the norm. Hembree was on pace for many more IP but got hurt. Walden is on pace for 84- kinda high. Wright could come to the rescue.

In 2018, Kimbrel had 42 saves and 5 BS. What we may not know is this... He had a loss in the 10th by letting up 1 run in 0.1 of a tie game (No blown save but got the loss). He got a win by pitching 1.1 IP letting up 3 hits. He got a save despite letting up 1 ER in 1 IP. He got another save letting up 2H and a BB in 1 IP. He got another save letting up 1 ER in 1 IP. No BS or win in a 6-4 win letting up 2 ER in the 9th. Got a save despite letting up 1 ER in 1 IP (5-3 win) No BS or win in a 4-1 Sox win but he let up 1 ER on 2H and 2 BB in the 9th. Another save in a 6-4 win despite letting up 1 ER in the 9th Got a win after blowing a save ( 1 IP 1 ER) when the Sox won the game in the bottom of the 9th. Then, the playoff miracles of avoiding BS after BS despite throwing gas on several fires.

I have looked at every game with a microscope. Yes, the loses are looked at, but my point was about how many games has our pen did a great job keeping us in a game but we still lost or we came back to win. Also, say we are winning 8-7 in the 4th, we tie it 8-8 but our pen goes 5 ip and let's up 1 run. The pen gets the loss even though the starter was much more at fault. Or like that 17 inning game we lost and the pen blew 2 saves but pitched very well. We talk a lot about our lack of timely hitting, but we've also seen some really bad untimely pitching. The pen does great for 10 innings but let's up one run in the 8th and 13th.

It also doesn't tell how many times we were losing, and the pen kept us in it long enough for a comeback. Also, how many loses do we have where the pen pitched an excellent game of 3+ innings with 0 runs allowed, but we lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1. Those are games the Yanks and Rays win.

I don't think the price will be that high. There will be 16-18 sellers by the deadline.

Updated tally after today's win to the pen: Starters 16-22 (-6) Relievers 26-14 (+12) The alternative scoring system I showed earlier- updated after 80 games: (Tonight's Update SP -2/RP+2) SP +20 RP +46

He's up to... .713

ERod should get a blown save for tonight's handing the lead away in the 7th.

Marco for Mayor!

It may be short-lives, but don't look now: JBJ is up to .708 after today's HR. He was at ... .350 April 19th. .409 May 8th. .421 May 19th. .520 May 28th. .619 June 9th. .674 June 17th. Well done, JBJ-- KEEP IT UP !!!!

Not really, but it would be nice to see us moving in the right direction. I know, when you are 30th there's only one way to go, unless it's sideways.

...and I think that is part of the reason we all feel like our pen has been much worse than it has been all year. If we could add a solid closer to these guys, we'd be much better: OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run) OPS pitcher (PAs) .629 Barnes 112 .518 Workman 90 .585 Walden 58 .388 Hembree 27

More than 10 PAs Against... High Leverage: .624 Barnes 76 .583 Workman 64 .835 Brasier 55 .472 Walden 52 .911 Brewer 37 .575 Hembree 25 .661 Velazquez 23 .933 Porcello 69 .770 Sale 59 .813 Price 54 .822 ERod 48 .824 Eovaldi 14

OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run) OPS pitcher (PAs) .629 Barnes 112 .518 Workman 90 .824 Brasier 78 .585 Walden 58 .388 Hembree 27 .832 Brewer 27 .871 Velazquez 19 .500 Sale 14 1.481 Lakins 14 1.135 Porcello 13 .222 Taylor 9 1.429 ERod 7 .333 Smith 6 1.800 Johnson 5 .000 Thornburg 4 .750 Price 4 4.000 Poyner 2 Many of our worst are the starters or very bottom of the pen. Too bad Hembree got hurt. Maybe he could have become our closer.

How many our 15 blown saves have come in the 9th inning? 4 in 9th 5 in 8th 4 in 7th 1 in 12th 1 in 13th (9 blown saves in 8th and 9th) How many games with 1 or more blown saves? 1 on June 18th Out of the 14 games we had 1-2 blown saves, how many did we end up losing? Only 7. Here's a look at our blown saves by pitcher. Brasier 7 saves/ 3 BS 4/17 L 3-5 (0.2 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 2K) 7th inning 5/2 L 4-6 (0.1 IP 3 ER 2H 0 BB 1K) 9th inning 5/28 L5-7 (0.0 IP 3 ER 2H 1 BB 0K) 9th inning Barnes 4 saves/5 BS 4/20 W 6-5 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 0 BB 3K) 8th 4/21 W 4-3 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 1 BB 2K) 8th 5/15 W 6-5 (0.1 IP 0 ER 1 H 0 BB 1K) 7th 6/10 L 3-4 (0.2 IP 2 ER 3H 1 BB 1K) 9th 6/22 L 7-8 (0.2 IP 3 ER 2 H 2 BB 1K) 8th Workman 2 saves/ 3 BS 5/14 L 4-5 (1.0 IP 2 ER 2H 0 BB 2K) 8th 6/12 W 4-3 (1.1 IP 0 ER 0H 1BB 2K- 1 unearned run) 7-8th 6/18 L 3-4 (1.0 IP 1 ER 1 H 2 BB 2K) 8th Hembree 1 sv/ 1 BS 5/22 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 3K) 12th Walden 1 Sv/ 2 BS 5/19 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 4H 1 BB 3K) 9-10th 6/16 W 8-6 (1.2 IP 1 ER 1H 1 BB 1K )7-8th Velazquez 0 sv/ 1 BS 6/18 L 3-4 (4 IP 1 ER 3H 0BB 3K) 13-16 innings Smith 1 sv/ 0 BS So, basically, we've lost 7 games due to blown saves. We've won 7 games after blowing a save and many games won with our pen saving the game or holding the lead. Then there are many games where our pen got the win after our offense brought us back from a deficit brought on by our starter.

True, and I'm hoping we can find deals more like the Eovaldi and Reed ones than to try and get Wil Smith for our top propsects.

I don't agree on knucklers being any more of a crapshoot than other pitchers. Wright has been one of our most consistent pitchers- when healthy. I'd have no problem DFA'ing Thornburg and trading Johnson, even if just for scarps, if it meant opening up a roster slot for a solid RP'er (or two).

Dalbec plus DHern or Duran could get us something very nice.

No doubt! We need pen help, but it seems like you only talk about the pen's blown saves and do not recognize how many games the pen has won for us while being overworked. Yes, starters don't go as deep anymore, but ours have gone less than the norm.

I wasn't saying I wanted to trade Casas, but if we want a guy like Wil Smith, he will probably have to head the offer.

Great post! Is it DD's fault our rotation and top or the order have declined so sharply? (This question is not directed at you.) On the bright side, we finally have the balanced line up many felt was essential to winning rings. How has that worked out for us?