moonslav59

Nope.

MLBTR writes... By Connor Byrne Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball. Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too. Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago. How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out. Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against offspeed pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season. Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305. To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Yes, and they use it to add to the "WTF" Cora bashing. To me, I'm just talking about maybe 1-2 games for 2-3 players. It's not a biggie for me. I also have admitted I do not know everything Cora knows, and maybe if I had all the data and input he has, I might be arguing for more rest.

+1 But, I called for him and Price being shut down before they went on the IL.

His 2018 K Rate was his career high (9.8). It dipped a little with the Yanks (8.9). but that is a full K above his career 7.9 mark. Sorry, I hate the Yanks, too, but I won't misrepresent the facts. Look, I expected decline and argues with Jacko over his value, but his numbers were pretty darn good last year- almost all better than his career norm. Yes, some slipped from 2015-2017 numbers, but others were his career best: WHIP, K/9, K/BB...

Okay. I will withdraw his name as even a remote possibility.

He's going to get fat eating all those hot dogs, but fat shaming is so anti-PC these days.

No. It sucked. My point was that the schedule now has 4 more days off than it did for years and years, so basically, you can count those as "days off." In a sense, everyone starts with 158 games (although they still may play 162.) Then, they are given 3-5 scheduled days off for "rest". That's like a player from 2-50 years ago getting 7-9 days off per season above the normal days off. I think it's too much. I've already said this is a minor issue with me, and I've already written more than I should have on something rather trivial. Besides, I think we won almost every game Cora sat an important player.

Why? Because they have a decent farm system that plugs the holes of departing FAs and injured players. They've lost some serious talent to free agency and trades, recently, too.

His age was trending the wrong direction, but his WHIP, K/9 and K/BB rates were his best ever in 2018. His ERA+ was down but still at 116- a heck of a lot better than his career 103 mark.

I hope all goes well. I'll say a prayer.

Just because I listed him as an option does not mean I "love" him. Besides, I want to reset next year, so maybe a couple positions will take a beating.

"Hey, Timmy, How about that kid Marco Hernandez?" "Look at that kid D Hernandez! He's only 15 years older than you, son! Isn't he amazing? "The sausages are better than the hot dogs, son. Let's splurge, so Henry can buy better players!"

Travis can play LF. Lin can play OF. We can sign a cheap OF'er, yes- like Dyson. We can give Duran or G Hernandez a shot. We may even try Chavis in LF.

I think 28-8 or even 24-12 is all but impossible. Let's see what Travis, Chavis, Marco and some younger arms have to show for themselves. I enjoy watching these guys play.

It's Travis not Shaw. LF could be Travis with Beni in CF and Duran in RF, assuming no Betts. Lin can play OF.

I know Happ is older than Eovaldi, hence the shorter contract, but he had good numbers for 4 years running: 2015-2018 58-29 3.48 (FIP 3.78) 690 IP (avg: 173 IP per season) 120 ERA+ 1.214 WHIP 3.21 K/BB

My guess is, not counting this year, we will not be highly competitive for 2-3 years. It could (and maybe should) get real bad for 1-2 years. If we guess right on about all our signings and Sale, price & JD are strong, which is unlikely all happen, we can compete in 2021. Call me what you will, but I see a cliff. I expect a cliff. I hope we use the cliff to rebuild the farm.

Happ did not suck before 2019. He had several good years in a row and was pretty healthy.

I think a couple games were make-up rain days. We did have a day off but a doubleheader, too. I'm not saying never rest these guys, but I remember the days when many stars played 161-162 games, unless they were hurt. Playing 159-161 with the 4 added days off with the "modern schedule" should be plenty for most of the younger and stronger players. If the analytics say otherwise, and that's why I differ to Cora, then I will readily admit I am wrong. I'm just stating my opinion and not bashing Cora.

Thanks.

MLB scheduled more days off this year (actually started last year) than any year in a long time. MLB.com Under the collective bargaining agreement reached in December 2016, several changes were made to the scheduling pattern for the 2018 season. The overall length of the season was extended to 187 days with the addition of four off-days for all teams. All teams were scheduled to play on Opening Day, which for 2018 was March 29. Sunday Night Baseball will no longer be played on the final Sunday before the All-Star Game, in order to ease travel time for those who are participating in the Home Run Derby. A single, nationally televised night game will be played the following Thursday, with all other teams returning to play on Friday.

Slumping, minor injury, tells manager he needs a rest, looks lethargic... Maybe this never happens to these studs.

Yes, I think we'll have Travis or a very cheap FA OF'er in the OF with JD at DH. The pitching staff is the area most in doubt. Sale? Price? ERod Eovaldi Johnson, D Hernandez or Velazquez Barnes Workman Hembree? Taylor Walden Wright Brewer, Brasier, Lakins, Poyner, Feltman, Houck

I've always said that if we plan well, we can keep the down time (or cliff) to 1 or 2 years. 2019 and 2020= 2 years, but really only 2020 counts, since we didn't rebuild or reset this year. I'm being hopeful, but I realize 2022 or 2023 might be more realistic. I do think, if we reset, build the farm for 2023 and beyond, and then spend large without making any mistake signings, we can compete in 2021. I'm not sure about being a top 4-5 contender, but I try to be optimistic.