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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I thought they had a deal in place for him when the tendered him. I never expected this. We could have reset by trading Price, assuming people are right about LA actually wanting him for $15M x 3 and replacing JBJ with a cheapy all glove CF'er. We'd still be screwed losing Betts for nothing, so I think that's the real reason we decided to trade Betts and keep JBJ.
  2. moonslav59
    Maybe not... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/details-on-padres-pursuit-of-mookie-betts.html
  3. moonslav59
    It's the guy from the Twins that is the issue. Either they give us more or replace Graterol with someone we want, or they give Maeda back to LA (or us) and LA gives us someone else (Cartaya? Gray? I doubt we get Downs or Gonsolin)
  4. moonslav59
    Too late to non tender JBJ. Trading Eovaldi would mean we pay some of his contract, too.
  5. moonslav59
    Verdugo has a real shot at stepping it up, and he's still pre arb.
  6. moonslav59
    I'm not sure how he made that much based on what cots has, but assuming he made $8.5M, it is still very affordable and under market value by a long shot. I'd rather have Maeda on his deal than Perez on his.
  7. moonslav59
    If the trade goes through, as is, cots has us about $21M under the taxline. Assuming we add no long term contracts before next winter, we might be looking at this for a spending budget: $21M $14.5M JBJ and Workman bolt as FAs Total: $35.5M Arb Raises: ERod 8.8>? Beni $3.8>? Barnes $3.0>? Peraza $2.9>? Hembree $1.6>? Plawecki $0.9>? Osich $0.9>? First Arbs: Devers, Brice, Brasier, Velazquez>??? Options: Perez ($6.25 w $500K buyout & Moreland ($3M w $500K buyout) Maybe we see a $15.5M bump from raises, but some of these guys may be gone by winter. That might leave $20M to spend (towards Betts or someone else). That's not too much. Had we kept Price, we'd be looking at about $4M to spend and the cliff would be extended, IMO.
  8. moonslav59
    I said basically the same thing, and yes, they won't do it. We should trade Workman while his stock is high and his time is nearly up.
  9. moonslav59
    It was apparently their first offer, so one has to think they'd have gone higher and may still offer him a higher deal, next winter. Had we got Betts to sign for $360M/10, we'd have paid a heavy tax this year, not reset, and be at the 50% tax for 2021. Basically, all of Betts's contract would be taxed at 50% in 2021 and likely well beyond, assuming we keep spending to win. If you guys would be crying over paying him $38M a year, in essence, we'd really be paying him $57M a year (38 salary +19 tax). This trade had to be made. Trading just Price with $48M would not have been enough to get us a reset.
  10. moonslav59
    We could also see improvement from JD, Barnes, Chavis and others, but usually these things even out.
  11. moonslav59
    His AVV is an extremely low $3.15M x 4 years! These are his bonus targets: annual roster bonus: $150,000 for making Opening Day roster $6.5M annually in performance bonuses based on games started: $1M each 15, 20 GS. $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 GS $3.5M annually in performance bonuses based on innings pitched: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP. $750,000 200 I He could maybe make $4-7M more a year. We'd still be way below the tax line. He's a steal, budget-wise, but not really a workhorse type.
  12. moonslav59
    The trade value site has Price listed at a -55.3 value. If you subtract that from the $96M he is owed, his actual value is about $41M. Divide that by 3 and he's worth about $13.6M a year. That's about right between what I think he's worth and what the Dodgers end up paying him. (Not that this site is accurate.)
  13. moonslav59
    Why don't we just trade Betts, Price & $48M for Verdugo and Madea? We need a 5th starter. His deal is cheap.
  14. moonslav59
    No. I'm saying Price was forced on the Dodgers, so they could get Betts. They would not trade Maeda and his cheap contract for Price at $15M x 3 years. They only did it to get Betts. I'm not saying my projection of what Price is worth is correct, since the FA market is ultimately set by what one GM is willing to pay. IMO, Price is worth about $10-12M a year x 3 years. I'm not sure I'd give even that for him, at his age and with his "miracle arm" hanging by a thread. Maybe $15M x 3 is the going rate, and the Dodgers looked to break even, budgetwise. Word was we'd get Verdugo plus prospects for Betts alone. We forced Price on them. Yes, we paid $16M x 3 to get them to take him, but we apparently went from several prospects added to just the one from MN. It's my take, but I truly believe LA would rather have given us Verdugo & Maeda for Betts than Verdugo & Maeda for Betts, Price $48M.
  15. moonslav59
    It has to. They'll work something out.
  16. moonslav59
    I can't see how anyone would be for paying Price $15M a year x 3 years, if he was a FA right now. That's essentially what he is costing LA, and I'm pretty sure, they'd rather have Maeda and his contract over Price and his minus $16M a year.
  17. moonslav59
    Taking Myers might not be as bad as giving $48M to the Dodgers, but since we just signed Moreland, we wouldn't really use Myers much. Myers's value on the Trave Value site is-47.4- almost the exact same as the money we are paying LA. The problem is, the Padres don't want to give up prospects. I played around on the site and came up with this: Betts & Price (+22M) for Myers, Lucchesi (doubt they'd give us him), Hedges, Naylor and Margot SD would not do this trade.
  18. moonslav59
    If Graterol is damaged goods, I don't want him, but it's interesting to see how ML Trade Values rates his value vs some of our young pitchers: 14.3 Graterol 12.4 Mata 10.6 D Hernandez 4.5 Ward 3.8 Song 3.7 Groome 2.6 Houck 1.1 Chih-Jung
  19. moonslav59
    The MLB Trade Simulator is not some be-all end-all site, but it's interesting to note their take on this trade. (Assuming it goes through.) The Sox end up +18.6. (Betts + $48M + Price= 43.4 and Verdugo + Graterol= 62.0) The Dodgers end up -18.1. Betts+ Price+$48M= +43.4, but Verdugo + Maeda is giving up 61.5.) The Twins end up -0.5 (Graterol is valued slightly higher than Maeda.)
  20. moonslav59
    Yes, I posted this as a basis of where we are at now. I expect some additions.
  21. moonslav59
    They both are to blame, but DD is the one who presented the idea to Henry. DD has a history of leaving franchises in poor financial condition upon being shown the door.
  22. moonslav59
    Need a starter? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/4-interesting-buy-low-starters.html
  23. moonslav59
    Could be the guy.
  24. moonslav59
    Thanks DD.
  25. moonslav59
    We're $21M under. Castillo's AVV is $10.3M. It depends on how much we might want to add. We could also wait until mid season to decide. We'd know, if we want to add other salaries by then, and Castillo's money would be lessened by prorating.
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