moonslav59

De la Guerra 2-4 with 9th HR Castillo 2-4 with 9th HR Wade 7 IP 0 ER 3 H 0 BB 6 K (to 3.13 ERA) Duran 0-4 (3 Ks) Chatham 2-4 Curletta 2-3 (2B & BB) Dalbec 0-2 (2 BB & 2 runs) Haworth 5.2 IP 1 ER 5 H 0 BB 4 K Casas 3-4 (16th HR) to .859 OPS Lozada 2-4 (3rd HR)

It looks more and more like a fire sale summer, but we are not there, yet. We need to start planning for it, now, though. We should not make trades to try and win in 2020, but instead 2021 and beyond. Use 2020 to reset the tax with the idea that we may go heavy in the FA market in 2021. Anybody not under team control in 2021 or beyond, trade for the most we can get- preferably prospects that should be ready by 2021 or 2022, but really good ones farther away would be okay. Players under team control in 2021 and beyond, look at their ages and chances of being a key to helping us contend, consider keeping or trading. Sell for best return (pay 99% of salary, if needed): Porcello Moreland Holt Cashner (Pearce if worth anything) FAs after 2020 (may have higher value) Betts JBJ Workman (maybe extend?) Wright & Leon (if worth anything) Special cases: JD Martinez (back issues and age do not help his case as a key piece for 2021 and beyond) Price (Tough call. His age says no to 2021>>) Sale (Probably not worth trading while his stock is low. He may rebound and be a help in 2012>> or he could rebound, and we trade him while his stock is higher than now.) Eovaldi (Trading low is not a good idea.) After 2021 FAs Pedey (contract gone) ERod (keep) Barnes (keep) Hembree (Probably worth keeping, for now) It's easier to just list the keepers: Bogey Devers Vaz ERod Barnes Maybe extend Workman Wait it out with Sale, Eovaldi & Hembree

Anything we can get for Moreland and Holt is better than nothing. We can re-sign Holt, if we want him back.

Add Vaz and ERod.

I agree; I'd lay 5:1 odds he's nobody's 3-4 starter by then.

It's not spin. Just stop listening to someone posting half season UZR/150 numbers when even 1 full season is too small a sample size to you judge by rank. That's one side of the argument. The other is that JBJ may actually be playing the 16th best CF'er. (Was that the WAR or dWAR ranking?)

If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.

Yes. Maybe.

We don't need a bat. We just need the ones we have to hit better when it matters. You can't trade for clutch. We need 2 pitchers, and that's beyond Eovalid's return. At this moment, we have D Hern & Ryan Weber on the 25 man roster. Those are easily the worst two players on the roster. Okay, maybe Johnson or Wright can replace one of them, but Walden needs to go down, too. Okay, Travis may be one of the bottom 4 on the roster, but Moreland will replace him. What hitter do we get, and where does he play? You want to bench JBJ? He's one of our hottest players over the last 2 months, and he's a great fielder. You want to bench or trade Beni? Chavis? Getting a batter is the last thing we need.

He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.

It's not so much about the amount of plays hit to JBJ, it's about how many difficult plays he makes near or beyond the fringes of the CF zone. Betts takes some of those plaays away and the short LF wall may take away others. That's one point that notin has been making. My point is about how good is the #20 best defensive CF'er in MLB? How good is #25? #30? How good is a AAAA player on defense- some AAAA may be great- some may suck on defense.

Looks about as up and down as his OPS, and that ain't odd. They say look at 2-3 years combined sample sizes anyway.

They are less biases than I. They are more trained than I. A AAAA player can be an outstanding fielder with no hit tool.

True, but they were supposed to be a strength to the club, and their pay reflected those expectations. The pen has been (overall) pitching like we expected, so it's harder to fault them, IMO.

MLB players have those sort of slumps as well. How many dingers within that .207?

It is kind of as flaw, since JBJ loses rating because of Betts, and UZR/150 is (I believe) supposed to somewhat take away the need for a fan to have to adjust the rankings due to park, nearby fielders or what sort of pitching staff you play behind (High K, high GB, high FB, etc...). I'm fine with UZR/150 and dWAR, but the fan must still make certain adjustments to make them seem more accurate or "real". It is a hell of a lot better than one person's view.

Thanks boggs. Sometimes, I need a boost of confidence about our farm. At least there is hope on the distant horizon.

It is subjective to a large degree, but I trust a subjective analysis by a group of unbiased, trained and calibrated people who watch every play of every game vs myself, who only watches Sox games and the players we face on those particular game days. I'm not saying I will always agree with their numbers 100%, but I'll believe them over any single person, including myself. If they have JBJ ranked 24th on defense this year, I may scratch my head, but I can't say I am certain they are wrong, because I don't know how good the other 23 guys are. I know enough to think 10-12 might be better in any given year, but some of the others I don't know jack about and may never have seen them make one play- let alone enough plays to make a definitive judgement. I'm satisfied with their 3 year ranking, which is what they recommend we use for comparative judgments.

Brings back great memories! Rhanks.

No "probably."

A 2 inning "rebound" may be all we can expect.

Actually, ...

Bogey has been "the man" all year, but does anyone else fell like I do, that Devers will pass him in OPS by year's end? (Not a slight on Bogey, here.)

Actually, my position was to give him more time at 3B, but I felt he'd eventually be moved to 1B.

I was the clown I was talking about. I'd trade him tonight for the right return.