moonslav59

Nobody ever wants to trade players when they have a lot of promise or are coming off a great year. Then, when they struggle, people (I'm not talking about you) want to trade them. It's like to opposite of buy low-sell high. It's hard to know much other GMs value Beni. I'd listen to offers, but it might be worth waiting and hoping he gets hot and raises his value. (Note: I do not think a player's values goes up or down much at all based on small sample size slumps or hot streaks.)

It would be great for Duran to make an impact. I've not been that high on him, but I'm no expert on prospects. I'm counting on a few to fill in some roles and bench positions. Anything else will be a bonus, IMO. I am counting on more from our farm by 2022 and beyond. Who those players will be is the question.

Throwing hard curves might be harder on the arm than throwing 94 for 20 years.

From 1960-1979, there were 30 pitchers with 2,500+ IP (This does not count pitchers who got more than that in other time frames that overlapped these arbitrary dates. 57 pitchers had over 2,000 IP. 12 had over 3,400 IP! From 2000-2019, there were 17 pitchers with over 2,500 IP and 44 with over 2,000. Only CC Sabathia had over 3,400 IP. It appears that about 12-13 pitchers were iron men back from 1960-1979. If you take them away, the rest of the numbers are pretty close. (Also, there are more teams and more pitchers from 2000-2019 than there was from 1960-1979 dues to expansion.)

I'm not for trading them for a bag of balls. They both are doing well and are not being paid much. I think it's safe to say, we could get a decent prospect or player with 2-3+ years of control beyond 2020.

I don't think Chavis will ever have a chance at being our 2Bman in a championship season. His best shot is as a platoon 1B/DH and back up 2B/3B.

We can sign Moreland and Perez after 2021.

True, but nobody pitches over 240 IP every year or even 220 IP for 10 years, like many did in the past.

Exactly. He has more value to a contender than to us. That is a strong foundation for a trade. He's not part of our 2022 and beyond plans, unless we sign him again.

Who is the next guy to be traded? Perez? Vaz? Pillar? Eovaldi? Moreland? JBJ (with cash)? Bogay, Beni or JD?

I didn't say he was all that promising, but who in our system should get more playing time (with an eye towards 2022 & beyond)?

He probably won't be, but I'd give him a longer look than anyone else we have at 2B, right now.

That's why he cannot be "moved."

Let's assume we have a grand fire sale this year, and we trade JD, Eovaldi, Perez, Vaz, Moreland, but we keep ERod, Barnes and Beni (possible trading them next summer). This would be the general framework of our 2021 roster and budget: SP1 ____________ SP2 ____________ SP3 Sale SP4 ERod SP5 Godley/Ward/Mata RP1 ____________ RP2 ____________ RP3 D Hernandez RP4 Barnes RP5 ____________ RP6 Taylor RP7 Valdez/Walden/Brewer/Brice/Osich/Houck C ___________, Plawecki/Wong 1B Dalbec (Chavis) Ockimey 2B Peraza, Arauz/(Chavis) 3B Devers (Dalbec) SS Bogaerts/Lin/Chatham LF Beni CF _______/ Duran RF Verdugo/ ______/ Wilson DH Chavis Budget (assuming we pay 33% of all JD * Eovaldi's contracts for 2021) 25M Sale 20M Bogey 14M Pedey 10M ERod (last arb est) 7M Beni (2nd to last arb est) 4M Barnes (last arb) 13M towards JD and Eovaldi 16M for Price $109M Total add maybe $21M for arbs and min contracts and $15M for player benefits, and we'd be at about $145M on the luxury tax budget. The tax begins after $210M, so we'd have $65M to spend on free agents or $85M, if we allow ourselves to go over by $19.9M. Biggest holes to fill: SP 1 ($15-20M) SP 2 ($10-15M Closer ($10-15M) Catcher ($5-10M) CF'er ($5-10M) SP5 ($5-10M) RP2 ($5-10M) RP5 & OF4 ($5-10M) It's doable.

Yes, and guys like Moreland & Eovaldi (FAs after 2022) and Perez (after 2021) may be at peak value, right now, too. I'd mention Barnes, but his stock is low, rightg now, so maybe it would be better to wait until next summer and hope he shows improvement. I doubt Peraza (2 arbs left) has much trade value, either. I'd also see what we can get for JBJ and Pillar, even if we have to pay most of JBJ's remaining 2020 salary. JD Martinez is the toughest one to decide. He will certainly make us better in 2021 and 2022, but he is aging and costs a lot for a DH. I'd listen to offers, and I'd pitch in some cash, if the return was worth it. I'd lean towards trading him, now or next summer.

We could wait to trade Vaz, Eovaldi and Perez until next summer's trade deadline, but we risk their stock value dropping. We aren't winning, this year, so their value from 2020 is near useless to us. I doubt we win it all in 2021, so their value is worth more for other teams than ours. That's what makes trading them worth looking into. If other teams need them more than we do, we can get better return value. I get the point about being worth watching, next year. After taking 2020 off, we'll want some revenue from 2021. 3 years in a row of putrid play is not something Henry wants, nor the fans. I think we spend large, this winter, and will be fun to watch in 2021. We don't need Vaz and Perez to keep fans coming to games or watching on TV. Trading Bogey would be a different matter.

I'm not for tanking 2021. While trading players like Vaz, Eovaldi and Perez might weaken our 2021 outlook, we will "save" some money that can be spent on replacing them with longer term players AND we'll get something worthwhile for both- maybe some players that are ML ready in 2021 but also under team control for beyond just next year. I'm also assuming Henry opens the wallet wide in 2021, and by my calculations, Bloom will have over $70M to spend, not counting any "savings" he creates by trading some salaries, now. If Bloom can do "his magic," which is finding gems at bargain prices, maybe we can fill out our roster's many holes with players good enough to make us an exciting team to watch, next year. We'll still have Devers, Bogey, JD, Verdugo, Sale, Beni and ERod. We may not have to count on much input from our farm, except to fill the bench. $70-90M can go a long way, if spent correctly. If Henry allows us to go $19M over the line, we could be even better.

I agree. Leon got much better results from almost all of our pitchers. It's fire sale time.

I'd like to see him moved because he will not be part of our team beyond 2021, and he has value, right now. The same applies to anyone and everyone not a significant part of our future (2022 and beyond).

Trade him--QUICKLY!

No, he's... Freakin' Brock Holt!

Maybe Pedey comes back next year... not.

Brock Holt was just FDA'd for those who gush over ex-Sox players on the decline.

True, but I counted Bogey, because he will still be a great player at the time of his opt out.

Hembree had very little value. Workman has been good, but he has not been great. My guess is, we got about the best we could. I'd hoped for more, but this might work out. It makes us slightly better for 2021 and beyond, and we don't have Hembree's last arb to pay. Now, who's next? Moreland? Eovaldi? Pillar? JBJ with cash? Vaz? Barnes?