moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Your passive aggressiveness on full display. Stop acting like you are never condescending or all-knowing.
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It was obvious the bubble was going to burst at some point. Theo owned up to the mistakes he made before moving on to the Cubs. You can't trade that much of your farm away and not expect some sort of blow back. We can argue all day about the extent and length of the blow back, but the blow back was all but certain. It's not pounding chests any more than using the blind squirrel statement against those who saw the writing on the wall while some of you had your heads in the sand. (One cliche vs another) Maybe it won't be a "cliff," and you guys can claim a hollow victory. Hopefully, we can remain somewhat competitive through the reset and rebuild. Hopefully, we can be highly competitive in 1-2 years (3 tops), and I think that is possible, especially if we start spending again after the reset year. We still have a pretty decent core to build around. Devers and Bogey alone will help. I'm thankful we kept those two and ERod. Maybe Beni can step it up. We have a few promising prospects, mostly far away, but I'm hopeful the next GM will be an expert at building up the farm and developing young players into stars.
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Makes you wonder, if Harper stayed, would the Nats have gotten this far.
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Sounds a lot like your breakdown of the Yankee farm.
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2019 ALCS: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
Wait, aren't we supposed to follow the Yankee rebuild model? Isn't Cashman the genius? -
I differ to the expert on losers.
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2019 ALCS: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
It's what they do in their parks, their yards and their homes. It's second nature. -
One ring and a farm foundation that led to another is far from "Total."
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2019 ALCS: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
Go Astros! -
It was only about 7 top prospects traded, but many many more were traded, too. It may not be as noticeable, but sometimes those non top prospects can surprise and add to the overall value of a farm. Sure, many prospects never make it to the bigs, let alone shine there, but the more you have, the better chance you have some will become helpful. Many on this list never did or never will contribute anything to a major league team, but the sheer volume alone is astounding. When you factor in the quality of many of them, of the value they had when traded, it's pretty shocking. Top Ranking according to Soxprospects.com while in our system: 1 Moncada 1 Swihart 3 Margot 3 Espinoza 5 Kopech 5 Beeks 5 Marrero 6 Guerra 7 Basabe 9 Dubon 12 T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12 Rijo 13 Allen 15 Martin 17 Buttrey 18 Basabe 18 Callahan 20 Bautista 20 Asuaje That's over 18 prospects once ranked rather highly.
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I posed a simple question: which farm was better. Yes, we called up Devers, Beni and Chavis from that crop. That was a one snap shot farm. Just those three called up are better than all the prospects acquired after Ben and called up combined, and that was 4 years ago! Answer how you wish, but that farm was exponentially better than this one. All Our Top Prospects Acquired after Ben (4 Years): Casas Dalbec Groome Ward Duran Houck Chatham Feltman Shawaryn A Flores All the Top Prospects Acquired by Ben (4 years): ERod (by trade) Devers Moncada Beni Espinoza Kopech L Allen Chavis D Hernandez Buttrey Johnson Guerra Basabe I Basabe II Travis Bautista Asuaje P Light Maddox Lakins These guys were worth enough to keep Devers, Beni & Chavis and also get (via trade) Sale, Pom, Thornburg, Eovaldi, Pearce, AReed, Kinsler and others. We couldn't get a pitcher like Sale by trading our entire, current top 10 prospects. It's not even close, but I guess that's just my opinion and a bunch or experts, too.
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A few were predicting a reset in 2020 or 2021 despite what happened in 2019. The 2019 season surprised me. I thought our "window" extended from 2016 to 2019 or 2020.
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There might be significant drop offs between a couple slots here and there or a bigger drop off between, say, 12 and 15 than 22 and 25. I'd say it's safe to say a 10 slot difference is significant, maybe even 7 or 8 in most cases.
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It does happen, but way more times than not, the WS champ is a top 3-4 contender.
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After you take 3 of the best guys out, you like one better? That's not an answer. It's like saying, if we trade Casas, Mata and Groome, I like the other better.
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Yes, I could be wrong on the "good team" part of my projection, but he will be a FT starter for somebody- all year long.
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They are not worthless, but they are based on the opinions of people who know the business. I'd rather have a top 10 ranked farm than a bottom 10 ranked farm. It means the chances you get some help from the farm are greater. Which crop of prospects do you think is better? Casas, Mata, Dalbec, Duran, Groome, Jimenez, Houck, Ward, Song, Chatham, Lugo, Decker, Flores or Moncada, Devers, Espi, Margot, Beni, Kopech, Guerra, Johnson, Travis, Marrero, Chavis, Basabe, Allen, Dubon, Marco
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He barely pitched this year, and spent a lot of time in the pen. Finishing with a 5.08 ERA in his last 6 games didn't help, but he was showing a return of velocity.
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GMs don't look at just previous seasons. You don't either, when it supports your point. GMs look back a few year and often hope a pitcher can repeat something like those years. Eovaldi: 2.2 in 2018 (not counting playoffs) 3.2 in 2015 3.3 in 2014
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That's not how managers decide who to play or not. They look at the total package. Plus, you do realize, JBJ hit pretty well for a much longer stretch than his slump. OPS .406 April .810 May-Oct. (.846 after May 20th- 109 games/38 games at .421) 2018 .738 first 17 games .286 next 21 games .793 last 106 games We're talking 38 and 21 game horrid slumps. We're talking 109 and 123 game nice stretches- not great but pretty good, especially with the defense and plus base running. How about 2017? .637 in 28 games .821 in 80 games .512 last 25 games (2 bad slumps but still a longer hot streak than the 2 slumps combined.) 2015-2016 combined .834 in 230 games total.
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I'm not saying it's smart. I'm just saying it happens. GMs trade proven vets for prospects. That's a gamble. They are betting on potential. They pay for potential. If Eovaldi passes the physical, more than one GM would pay him way more than $5M/1. Way more.
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Like all of a sudden GMs are going to learn from this one example? The Padres signed Richards to $15.5M/2 after he had just finished a 3 year stretch of less than 140 IP TOTAL! Not less than 140IP per season- it was less than 140 IP total! Yes, it's a fine example for GMs tolearn from, but did DD learn from it, when he signed Eovaldi to 4 years? GMs pay for potential all the time. They gamble. It ain't stopping over the Richards and Eovaldi examples. Someone will overpay for the hope a guy will be or get healthy. Last winter: Ryu $18M/1 (pitched less than 200 IP in previous 4 seasons combined) Anibal Sanchez $19M/2 (pitched 242 IP in 2 previous seasons) Richards $15.5M/2 (see other pots) Matt Harvey $11M/1 (under 345 IP in 3 years) Trevor Cahill $9M/1 (under 260 IP in 3 yrs) Derek Holland $7M/1 (414 IP and 4.79 ERA in 3 years) For God's sake, Tyson Ross got more than $5M (204 IP & 5.21 ERA in 3 years) Do I need to go back another year for more examples? This was just last winter alone.
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He will be the FT starting CF'er for a good team all 2020 long. Book it.
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While I do think the playoffs are a crap shoot in some respects, I still think being a top 3-4 contender greatly improves your odds of winning it all. Plus, is a playoff contender one who finishes 5-7 games behind the last WC slot but was withing 3-5 games behind with 3 weeks to go?
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That's not the point. You know some GM would offer more than that.
