moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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That's basically what I just said.
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I'm not sure, if he's the best (behind Trout) or not, but I'd make him a serious large & long contract. If he says no, then we tried. Trading him first hedges the bet.
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Has "the man," Henry walked it back?
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Career: .930 at home .858 away 2019: .977 home .853 away I'm not thinking this makes me want to keep or trade him any more or less. I want Betts to retire in a Sox uniform, but I would not mind seeing him play for another team for one year, if it helps us rebuild our team faster and we re-sign him next winter. BTW, best Betts OPS by ball park (50+ PAs only) 1.055 KC 1.051 LAA 1.006 BAL .945 TOR .933 HOU .931 BOS .904 MN .881 CWS .852 TX All others under .763 or not enough PAs to qualify.
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If, somehow, we are looking like contenders in July, I can see Henry giving the okay to put off resetting another year. The worst thing that can happen is us not spending this year, not winning, and also not resetting the tax.
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I'm not sure it matters all that much, but I'm sure it makes some difference. I remember not feeling so great going into 2013, but that was a very exciting year for Sox fans. Henry will make a boatload of money no matter what, so it's basically up to him about us trying for one last hurrah or resetting the tax and maybe start back up with the spending in 2021 (including Betts?).
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To me, it makes much more sense to reset this year than next. To me, they "backpedaled because they want to sell season tickets. They may just trade JBJ and wait until July to decide, but since I don't think we will make the playoffs this year, I'm guessing they trade enough players to get under the line by season's end. It's just my opinion. I've been wrong before.
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I respect jacko, but he certainly has the pink shaded glasses on when viewing the Yankee injured players.
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It's harder to rebuild the farm system, when you pick later than 20th for several years in a row plus have limited IFA bonus pool money due to spending large year after year. We even had our pick lowered 10 slots for going over $40M one year. We also had one year where were not allowed any IFA signings. The days are gone where we got several comp picks nearly every year and we able to draft studs in the late first round due to signability issues.
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DD kept the right prospect in Devers, but the fact is he traded away just about everyone else. Sure, that's not the only thing he did, but let's not sugar coat it just because his signings and extensions look worse, right now. I'm not complaining about all the trades of prospects, since we won a ring. Had we not, I'd be ape s***, right now, but I never fooled myself into thinking we wouldn't have to pay for all those deals someday. I had hoped the window would stay open until 2021, so the crash of 2019 sucked and likely cost DD his job, but the day is here and now.
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I'm 99% sure the Sox will find a way to reset, this season. Whether it's trading Betts or Price or Eovaldi & JBJ or some combination, they will reset. There are teams that normally cannot afford a guy like Betts, but since it's just 1 year, they may think of 2020 as their one year window. If they trade for him before the season starts, they'll get a comp pick. If they wait, they only have to pay the pro-rated share of his contract. Either way, there is and will be a healthy market for Betts. It's Price and Eovaldi that are hard to move. Maybe waiting until they show they are healthy to start 2020 (assuming that happens) will improve their market demand. JBJ is a tough cookie to crack. I assumed, when they committed to arb, they had a deal in place. Maybe they still do.
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Betts would be a limited risk deal. Including Price would allow us to take back one stupid deal- Myers.
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I'm still waiting for the "Farm can easily be rebuilt" to happen, as the cliff-deniers promised.
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The Dodgers are desperate to win a ring and are out star hunting. The Padres and other teams were reportedly in on making some big FA signings, but missed out. I think some plan Bs might be opening up, soon.
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He's probably worth $80M for 2020. Would he get that in a contract? No. But, the owner makes money of Betts.
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My point wasn't about waiting until July. It was about the "reality" that 6 months of Betts could net a top 10 prospect, since 2 month rentals have in the past.
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Top 10's have gone for less, but my guess is we get 2-3 decent prospects or young ML players.
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Yes, of course. Apparently, and I don't necessarily disagree, his on-field value is $77M.
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I've seen large hauls go to 2 month rentals not as good as Betts. That's reality, too.
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So, Betts for Pollock, Gonsolin & Stripling? The simulator says this is off by almost a Ruiz or Urias+ Cartaya or Downs + Gray.
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Taking Pollock off the Dodger's hands is a big plus for LA. They have Verdugo, too. The simulator, for right or wrong, has Betts at +50 and Pollock at -31.8. Stripling & Gonsolin total 38.8 We should be able to get much more, even if this site is wrong.
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If we trade Betts & Price and get back Pollock and Gonsolin and/or Maeda, we don't really have holes at OF and SP3/4. We could then trade JBJ and sign an OF'er (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig). We could also sign pen help (Hudson as a bridge to 2021 or Stammen, Cishek or Wood) We could also trade for salary. Pollock is superfluous to the Dodgers. If we get Maeda and Gonsolin, Price is no longer superfluous to LA.
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Price is already a hole in the rotation. We can't count on him. Pollock and Maeda/Gonsolin do not leave holes. Gonsolin might be a better bet in 2020. If we can get Maeda, too, I'd try. We could pass on Downs and Cartaya and go... Betts & Price for Pollock, Kelly, Maeda, Gonsolin, Wong and Beaty If Pollock & Maeda stay healthy and Kelly rebounds, we may be as good as with Betts and an iffy Price.
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I'm not sure how it's different from trading Betts and then dumping Price is a separate deal.
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Taking Pollock just about evens up the actual worth of Price. (He's owed $42M/3 counting the buyout, so that makes Price cost $54M/3 or $18M x 3.) Now, that is assuming Pollock has no value, which is not true. The Dodgers getting Betts for Pollock is a huge gain. It's enough for us to get Gonsolin and Busch or Wong. Betts & Price (no money) for Pollock, Gonsolin & Busch or Wong. If we take Kelly, the money works better of LA, and we can get Pollock, Kelly and Gonsolin and Downs or instead of Downs- Cartaya & Maeda. Pollock + Kelly= about $21M on the Lux tax. That saves us $11M a year for 3 years. That's huge. Losing Betts's $27M, this year, gets us way under to reset. It allows us to sign a couple remaining FAs, now and maybe make a move at the deadline. $11M off 2021 and 2022 allows us to re-sign Betts.
