moonslav59

Yes, WAR rewards players who stay on the field, and that's not a bad thing as long as you recognize the context of WAR and what it represents. Perhaps a WAR/gm or Inning played/pitched could become a metric used to value who is better when they are on the field. This would be more like the stats people are used to using, like OBP, SLG, BA... All things being equal, a .400 OBP guy who plays 160 games is better than a .400 OBP guy who plays 130.

Trading Betts & JBJ allows Bllom to spend nearly $28M on FAs this winter, plus what we get back for Betts, which could be ML ready players. We could still be competitive without Betts and JBJ, if Bloom does his thing with multiple small/moderate signings. We have a lot of gaps gto be considered a true contender for 2020, and I'm not even talking about us needing a bunch of players to get and stay healthy. We need a 5th SP'er. We need 2 decent RP'ers. We need a 1Bman. We may need a 2Bman. We need a back-up C. We need OF depth, even if we keep JBJ & Betts. To fill all these needs and be highly competitive in 2020, we'll be near the max line again. It ain't happening.

I'm not sure we can use his history with the highly restricted budget Rays as a blueprint on how Bllom thinks about long term mega deals. He may also get a directive from above that he should make a strong and fair offer to Betts.

I still would rather just have him play DH, except in NL parks. I do agree that 1B is better than the OF, and had we signed a RP'er instead of Pearce, maybe we'd have been better off this past year.

I can see that happening. If we end up not winning it all, not making some trades this winter or next summer will slow the rebuild.

12:1 is generous, but the real number that matters is how many teams have better odds?

If I had just $24M to spend and not knowing who we got rid of to make that space(assume no JBJ and either Betts or JD gone), here's how I would spend it: $6M x 1 Calhoun RF $5M x 1 Strop RP $4M x 2 Lindblom SP $3M x 1 Akiyama RP $6M on Billy Hamilton, Keon Broxton, Juan Lagaress or Jarrod Dyson and a cheap 1Bman (Adams or Thames, if possible)

Pitching wins rings. Many positional players signed to big deals have flopped, as well. I agree that deals should be no longer than 4-5 years, but I think there are rare exceptions.

How about wins above Gorkys? WAG

I'd prefer to spend the money saved by trading Betts, JD and a pitcher on more moderate players- looking for less risk by spreading the risk over several players. Let's use Bloom's skills to their best advantage- finding diamonds in the ruff. With more money to spend that he had in TB, maybe he can find even more and then occasionally splurging on a big name when the fit and need lines up.

Can't we find the next Felipe?

Certainly possible, and we might play it halfway and wait until July to decide to have a fire sale or spend and go over the line for one last push. To me, if we know we are losing Betts (and JD to a lesser extent) then trying to win it all in 2020 makes some sense, but so does jumping the gun on the rebuild and making it happen quicker, sooner and better by getting something for Betts & JD (and maybe others, too).

The lowball offer to Lester may make this case different. Plus, I don't think we seriously tried to sign him over the Cubs. Look, I'm one of the few here that think we should offer Betts over $300M. If we offer him that in 2021 and he goes elsewhere, it's not the same as Lester leaving. Plus, we got something for Lester, and Porcello helped us for many years. Getting nothing for Betts and then watching him walk away for just 4th round pick would be worse than the Lester fiasco.

I have no issues with bWAR being different than fWAR. They both measure different things and place values differently. I can see how this can favor the argument that WAR is not perfect, but again, nobody is saying it is. I thinbk everyone knows a .333 BA means one hit every 3 ABs. It is a solid number, although some debate could be made about what are called hits vs reach on errors or ballpark dimensions and strength of opponents playing into it. WAR is not a solid or perfect number, and maybe those conditioned to know 2>1 have a harder time understanding the numbers are not a result of a perfect process like dividing 3 ABs into 1 hit, but that doesn't mean we have to throw the whole process out. It just means take the number with a grain of salt and use as you wish. I choose to use it as one tool in my tool box. It's not even my #1 tool, but it's right up there near the top.

It's not totally accurate. They do a hell of a lot of research to find which stats have the what value. OBP > BA and OBP > SLG. SLG>BA and so on... We at the water coolers try and juggle 10 different stats in our heads and come up with an opinion on who is the best or better than someone else. I'm fine with that, but I think the people who come up with WAR (fWAR and bWAR) know more than I do about the value of each measurable thing a player does on the field. I don't take that number as the be-all-end-all, and I know it's a cumulative metric. It's not meant to say a 6 WAR player is better than a 5 WAR player. It just says that in the selected time period, player A was more valuable than player B- maybe because he played more often. Knowing what it calculates and is meant to measure helps in understanding it. I don't pretend to know all the ins and outs, and maybe I'm wrong for trusting some stat geeks using science to determine total value produced, but I think their numbers are meaningful. I respect anyone who thinks differently or doesn't see the purpose of trying to reduce everything done on the filed to one number.

Here are a few FAs and their projected by MLTR contracts that may interest the Sox-some positions based on the idea that JBJ & Leon may be gone and JD, Betts, Price and/or Eovaldi may be traded. MLBTR Projected $/yrs SP $17M x 3 J Odorizzi $13M x 3 D Keuchel $15M x 2 C Hamels $11M x 2 M Pineda $9M x 2 Kyle Gibson $9M x 2 Tanner Roark $9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS since 2013) $8M x 2 Wade Miley $8M x 2 Pomeranz (say it ain't so!) $11M x 1 Porcello $8M x 1 Alex Wood $8M x 1 A Wainwright $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom $6M x 1 Rich Hill $6M x 1 Michael Wacha $6M x 1 Ivan Nova $3M x 1 Drew Smyly RP $14M x 3 Will Smith $9M x 2 Will Harris $7M x 2 Chris Martin $6M x 2 Daniel Hudson $5M x 2 Craig Stammen $5M x 2 Steve Cishek $7M x 1 D Betances $5M x 1 Pedro Strop 1B $14M x 2 J Abreu $10M x 2 M Moustakas (3B/2B) $8M x 1 Encarnacion (DH) OF $14.5M x 4 N. Castellanos $15M x 3 M Ozuna $7.5M x 2 Corey Dickerson $6M x 2 Avisail Garcia $6M x 2 H Kendrick (2B/1B) $10M x 1 B Gardner $8M x 1 Y Puig $6M Kole Calhoun $3M x 2 Shogo Akiyama C $7M x 2 Travis d'Arnaud $5M x 2 R Chirinos $5M x 2 J Castro Utility $4M x 2 Brock Holt (2B, 3B, SS, OF, 1B)

You keep saying we think it's "right" when everyone says it has flaws. We do think an all encompassing stat says more about a player's full value than a any other one dimensional stat by itself. Maybe a few posters present it like an argument ender, but it shouldn't be- same as anyone saying I see what I see and this guy is better than that guy based on my observations.

We did end up with Porcello by trading Lester and could have outbid the Cubs to get him back. Instead, we spent the money elsewhere. Rings since Lester trade: Cubs 1 Sox 1

I don't get the unethical part. Any player knows he may be traded at any time, unless there's a a no-trade clause. I'm sure JD has heard the rumors of trade, if he opts in. He can select some no trade teams, so he negotiated this back then, knowing trades are part of the game. BTW, if he gets traded, it will be to a team that is spending and looking to win, so it's not like he's going to the Marlins.

OK, I was thinking of his prior deal. Yes, he opted out being owed $65M/2 and signed for $93M/3.

More agmes played does add value. WAR is not meant to judge who is the best when they play, although you can get that number by dividing by games played. It is meant to measure how much value a player produced over a period of time. If Trout misses 40 games, he might still be the best player when playing, but he might not have had the as much value as someone who played 158 games at near Trout value.

I agree, but first I'd see about Price. I might even try to move both. Part of me is leaning towards trading Price, Eovaldi, Betts, JD, Hembree and JBJ. Use the savings to sign moderate FA to shorter term deals (let Bloom be Bloom) with an eye towards making us serious contenders as early as 2021. Reset the tax and then look to fill the biggest gaps with a stud or two in 2021 or 2022. I know many Sox fans will hate this idea, but playing it halfway makes little sense, to me. (BTW, I said the same thing about the 2013 season, where I thought we had played it "halfway" and look what that team brought us.)

I'd rather do that than lose Betts and JD for nothing next winter.

Certainly, I'd tell him we love him, appreciated his input to the team's past success, and will want him back in 2021, but if he holds a grudge, so be it. 1) I think we get way more than just one decent prospect by trading him. Yes, the team getting him pays about $28M, but he's worth way more than that for 1 year in the heart of prime, and the one year is less risky injury-wise. 2) Getting just a 4th round draft pick by watching him bolt via free agency would be a kick in the balls. 3) Offer him a great deal after 2020, and if he refuses and signs for ungodly numbers elsewhere, I think Sox fans will not be that upset- not like the Lester fiasco. 4) If we don't get Betts after 2020, it's not like we'll pocket the $30M+ for 8-12 years. We will spend it elsewhere, and I like Bloom's history of spending money wisely. That $30+M alone is more than he had per year with TB to spend on FAs. The worst case scenario is getting nothing for Betts and watching him bolt. The second worst might be keeping him and resigning him to $36M x 10-12 years and going bust. Better is to trade him for 2-3 prospects or young ML ready players that are cost controlled and then make a more than fair offer in 2021 and let the chips fall where they may.

True, but Kershaw was not going to be a FA, or am I wrong?