moonslav59

First, I have to say, I hate Ohio State, but they got ripped off by that call. The guy clearly caught the ball, took 3 steps and fumbled. They called a fumble on the play, but the play was overruled. Horrible call. Second, this Clemson organization deserves plenty of Kudos. LSU looks unstoppable. My Domers had a nice bowl win. Memphis gave Penn State a scare but blew it near the end with a bad interception. Kudos to LA Tech for upsetting and shutting out Miami. Stillsome nice games to go: ALA-MICH ORE-WIS BAY-GA MN-AUB LSU-CLEM

It makes too much sense, to me, to deal Price for a salary dump from another team that counts way less on the luxury tax than actual dollars owed. We discussed most of these already, but here are some that might fill a current void on our roster while saving us more lux tax money than actual money: SDP Myers $68.5M/3 ($13.8M x 3 LUX) LAD Pollock $51M/3 ($12M x 3 LUX) TX Odor $34M/3 ($8.2M x 3 LUX) PHI O Herrera $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2 LUX) SFG Posey $47.3/2 ($18.6M x 2 LUX) Belt $34.4M/2 ($14.6M x 2 LUX) Longoria $59M/3 ($11.2M x 3 LUX) Move Devers to 1B? LAA J Upton $74M/3 ($21.2M x 3 LUX) Mets: maybe with Dominic Smith (arbs)+ Lowrie $1.5M less on LUX or Familia $1.6M less on LUX to balance the money? I don't see this working out well: SDP Hosmer $99M/6($18M x 6 LUX)

Yes, they can. 15% is not impossible.

Makes me think we must not have any firm deals lined up to dump salary.

That's the thing, it won't take great seasons from Sale, Price and Eovaldi to be a significant improvement over 2019. It will to improve or equal 2018, but it's not impossible, especially since Eovaldi was not here for all of 2018. Sale, Price & Eovaldi: 2019 312.1 IP 168 ER 4.84 ERA 304 H 104 BB 1.31 WHIP 2018: 388.0 IP (76 IP more than 2019, even with no Eovaldi for 3+ months)) 127 ER 2.95 ERA (almost 2 full runs below 2019) 310 H 96 BB 1.05 WHIP (0.26 better than 2019) Massive differences.

MLBTR Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…

I get that, but there's 3 years left on his contract, and he didn't have any new injury, last year. There is reason to hope he's fine going forward. Price and Sale aggravated injuries and might be bigger question marks for 2020 than Eovaldi. (Personally, I like Sale bouncing back more than Eovaldi & Price, but that's not based on anything medical.)

True, but when looking forward, I think the hope is better for a pitcher with the types of procedures Eovaldi had recently than someone with new or continuing structural damage.

With Eovaldi, it's been more about missing time than not pitching well. One also has to factor in the rehab time coming back from injuries at the ML level. His numbers since 2013 are pretty close to average: 39-38 4.16 (3.74 FIP) 1.32 WHIP & 96 ERA+ Most of the hope attached to Eovaldi comes from just the from 2013 to 2015 and 2018: 2013-2015: 460 IP 4.09 ERA 2018 111 IP 3.81 ERA/1.13 WHIP- by far his best career number

The answer to the question, "Are we a title contender?" is not no. It is "probably not." The team needs healthy returns of 3-4 key players, and expecting that might not be likely, but it is not a super long shot. The second question is hard to objectify. Surely we haven't added any "WOW" players, yet, and on the surface it looks like losing Porcello & Moreland makes us worse (after losing Kimbrel & Kelly last winter), but along with the good players lost since our championship win less than 14 months ago, we've lost some pretty bad players. One could view their losses as "addition by subtraction," and even Porcello, Moreland, Kimbrel and Kelly were not outstanding in 2018 or 2019. (Kimbrel was for most of 2018, until he neatly blew up in November.) We also lost Pom, Holt, Pearce and others. Players no longer on the team from 2018 (Listed by most PAs and IP in 2018) PAs Player OPS 2018/2019 OPS (PA) 502 Nunez .677/.548 (177) 459 Moreland .758/.835 (335) 367 Holt .774/.771 (295) 288 Leon .511/.548 (191) 207 Swihart .613/.695 (29) 195 HRam .708/na 165 Pearce .901/.503 (99) 143 Kinsler .604/na 27 B Phillips .520/na IP Pitcher ERA 191 Porcello 4.28/ 5.52 (174) 74 Pomeranz 6.08/na 66 Kelly 4.39/na 62 Kimbrel 2.74/na 54 Wright 2.68/8.53 (6) 24 Thornburg 5.63/7.71 (19) 17 Cuevas 7.41/na Not here in 2018 or 2020: 54 Cashner 6.20 No or little role in 2018 but will in 2020: Chavis Workman Walden Taylor DHern Perez Peraza Players with a better outlook now than 2018: EDevers Rod Vaz It's not all doom and gloom, but certainly we need a bunch of this to go right for us to be strong contenders, and besides, the winter is not over, so question 2 is still open.

I think the chance Sale comes back is better than 50-50, but Price and Eovaldi are maybe under 50-50. In a sense, "likely" is saying you will flip heads 3 times in a row. That's less than 15%. Now, my projected chances of coming back could be wrong, but if all were at 60% comeback status, the odds all 3 come back is about 21%. To have better than a 50% chance all 3 comeback, you have to view each individual as having about an 80% comeback chance (.8 x.8 x.8= 51%). That doesn't figure in the chanced ERod might get hurt or have a bad year. I'm trying to stay optimistic, but these 3 starters make it hard to do so.

Not too "amusing" there, either.

No ties: 81.5.

Assuming we make no major moves, what's the 2020 over under on Sox wins? 82?

True, but it's been so boring! More likely, we just trade price for Myers straight up.

Being in serious contention every 3-4 years max has been pretty awesome.

We have so many holes to fill, so I think it's better to take back some player with salary that has some hope of giving something positive rather than just pay $40M+. They both count the same on the tax budget

What year does Seattle prefer?

It's not about the players, although I like Margot in CF, and the two prospects had good value on this site. It's about the money saved and what Bloom can do with it. Price+ Eovaldi+ JBJ= $59M on the lux tax in 2020, $48M in 2021 and $48M in 2022. Hosmer costs $18M x 6. That's $41M saved in 2020. We fill our 1B position and replace JBJ with a good defensive CF'er with upside offense. (Margot>Pollock) I'm not saying I'm for the deal, but dumping both bad contracts deserves serious consideration.

Moncada or Dubon would be our starting 2Bman. (Moncada could DH, if we traded JD or in 2021 after JD opts out.) Margot would start in CF (JBJ traded or DFA'd) Buttrey would be our 2nd or 3rd best pen arm. Allen or Kopech would make our rotation, and the other would be our 6th starter. (Both would start, if we traded Price or Eovaldi.) Beeks would be our long man or spot starter. That's 7 slots filled or improved upon. (Bautista might make the pen.) That's hardly overrated. The main thing is these guys cost pennies on the dollars compared to the guys they would replace. That would allow enough budget space to add a lot more talent.

This trade was accepted: Price, Eovaldi & JBJ for Hosmer, Margot, Hunt (C- minors) & Rosario (2B- minors)

Price and JBJ for Hosmer, Margot and $30M ($5M a year for all of Hosmer's 6 remaining years). Luxury tax savings 2020: $29M (31 Price + 11M JBJ for 18 Hosmer - 5 payment) 2021: $18M + whatever Margot costs 2022: $18M + Margot 2023: -$13M Hosmer ($18M-$5M payment) 2024: -$13M 2025: -$13M

I thought I made myself clear. I said this was not about wanting to take back any trades, except maybe the Thornburg one. I have no beef with DD. We won a ring. My point was back then as well as now, that we sacrificed much of the future to get that ring. There's no point in denying it. I was fine with trading the future as long as we won a ring. We did. I knew we'd hit a wall (cliff) at some point because of the sheer quantity of deals we made, and the fact that we dealt some top prospects. Sure, we knew all of them would not make an impact, and I'm glad we kept Devers, but the future is here, now. It came quicker than even I expected, but it's here. I was responding to the comment that the idea that we traded away the farm was "overrated." Clearly, it was not. All the posters who said things like, "We'll replenish the farm- no problem" are the ones who have some explaining to do- not me.

They should insist on a minimum team budget to go along with the lux tax line. Making that low line higher would be better than trying to raise the lux tax line. I'd suggest this: Double the minimum pay. Raise it to triple by then end of the contract. Create a minimum player budget at $75M and raise it $2M a year. Raise the lux tax line $2M a year. Keep the current taxes and min/max lines. Do away with the penalties for signing a QO refusal FA, but give the team losing those players a comp pick. Start arbs two year earlier and end them one year earlier. (Players reach free agency 1 year earlier and have 1 more arb year.)

Hosmer is owed more than Price ($99M/6 to $96M/3). The luxury tax hit would be nice ($18M vs $31), but I wouldn't do it. I've never been a fan of Hosmer. He's up and down almost every other year. The trade simulator would not accept this trade, even though the values were nearly identical: Price & JBJ for Hosmer, Margot, Quantrill & Campusano