moonslav59

I wonder how many posters who were against the Sale signing are now for extending ERod at a slight discount rate due to health concerns. Rolling the dice wins some and loses some, and to point out again, Sale's contract just started, last year.

An interesting note: Sale's K/9 were the highest of his career in 2018 (13.5) and 2019 (13.3). His career number before 2018 was 10.5. Someone mentioned all the mileage he had on his arm. Sale has only gone over 175 IP five times in his career (and over 209 just three times.) One wonders if he just over pitched in 2018 to reach that amazing 2.11 ERA and 13.5 K rate. After missing a couple starts after his July 27th start in 2018, he K'd 12 guys in 5 IP. I think the velo chart showed him above his career norm in that game. He then missed a few more starts and came back in the middle of September for 4 starts: 1 IP 2 K 3 IP 1 K 3.1 IP 7 K 4.2 IP 8 K He pitched 15.1 IP in the 2018 playoffs and had 24 K's (a 14.1 K/9 rate), but he also walked 8 batters (4.7 per 9) and 11 hits (not bad) and a 4.11 ERA. He certainly was not himself in 2019, and his last start was August 13th. His last two starts had some good numbers: 14.2 IP 25 K 2 BB 7 H (WHIP below 0.500) 3 ER (1.84 ERA) 2019 saw a few bad short stretches by Sale, along with some very nice longer stretches. I'm not sure if any of this has to do with what we can expect going forward, but some are using his numbers from 2018-2019 to show he was toasted before the surgery. 2019 broken down from the start of the season: Game stretch/ ERA 4/ 8.50 12/ 2.44 3/ 8.27 2/1.50 2/ 14.00 2/ 1.84 3 bad stretches of 7 games total ruined what might have been a great season. Of course, most pitchers could break down a season like this and say similar things, but the fact is, he looked great for several stretches, including a 12 game stretch.

I think when Cordero returns, Chavis will be sent down. Arroyo is out of options. I don't think Marwin is sent down.

Even after knowing what I know about Sale, now, I still think the roll of the dice was worth the risk. I'd rather have Sale than 2 Eovaldi's or a Price & Eovaldi combined.

I'd go with 13 pitchers until April 15 or 16, when we are 4-5 games into a long stretch or no days off and after we have 2 days off in the first 9 days of the season. We might go longer, depending on how deep we had to go into the pen over the first 2 weeks of the season. I can't see Brice and Brewer being overused by the 14th or 15th game of the season. Chances are even having just one of the two won't see overuse. I never thought I'd hear myself says this, but I want Chavis on the opening day roster. (I also think we need Arroyo or Arauz, too.) IMO, the only argument against Chavis is Duran not Brewer, but I guess it is what it is. We have a few guys that can go long innings in relief, in case a starter gets booted early a few times in the first 2 weeks. They can go long (3-4 IP) maybe 3-4 times in the first 14 days, so the one inning RP'ers should not be overused. If things fall apart, early, then make a roster move once you look to short-handed in the next game. These guys at the alternative site should be readily available and on-hand in less than 24 hours.

Is Cordero on the IL or C-19 list?

Every contract is a roll of the dice. Signing Sale to about the same money Corbin got seems like a good business practice despite the risks. BTW, this season is just year 2 of the deal, so let's not proclaim it as a bust just yet. Both sides clearly knew there were health concerns. His contract amount is clear evidence neither side thought Sale was 100% healthy and had a rosy health future. Nobody here has the actual test results, but that doesn't mean we don't know jack.

I've showed jacko these graphs countless times, and he has never responded to these facts.

My point was about his velocity being about the same as 2021-2017, a time period where he was extremely successful. He doesn't have to be at 2018 velocity to be a stud pitcher. His 2019 velocity was nearly identical to his average velocity from 2012-2016 and just 1 below 2017. I'm not sure why you think the 2018 playoffs were "the kicker." Usually, when pitchers just come back from being out, their velocity is low for a short sample size. Look, I have never argued he wasn't hurt.In fact, I have argued he signed a discount deal precisely because bot sides knew he was hurt and the risk was there for further injury or diminished productivity. I have said the Sox "rolled the dice." My point is that your repeated claims of diminished velocity have never addressed the facts about Sale's career velocity and the seasons before he spiked in 2018. You keep acting like 2018 is his "norm," when it was actually far from it. If Sale could be extremely effective at 92-93 before 2018, and he was at 93.2 in 2019, how can you say pitching at 92-93 going forward means he's toast? Now, if he comes back at 90-91, you'll have a point, but pitchers with his surgery often come back with about the same velo the had before. Please explain why you you think he needs to be at peak velocity to be effective again, when he was at 92-93 most of his career.

Munoz would need to be added to the 40 man roster- no biggie, as our 40th man is not all that promising, but the idea is to keep as many options on the table in April. Arroyo probably makes the 26 man roster, anyway. There's room for him & Chavis. Maybe you meant Arauz. soxprospects.com has Sale, Brasier and Cordero listed as "inactive". (IL or C-19) and Marwin starting in LF. They have 14 pitchers, including Brice & Brewer (not Valdez). The 3 bench players listed are Plawecki, Arroyo and Chavis, with Duran, Arauz, Munoz, Downs and Houck starting at the Alternative Training Site. It's interesting they also show Chavis in AAA, which begins in May. To me, an argument could be made to go with 12 pitchers, but I won't go there. Let's assume it's between 13 and 14 pitchers and 3 or 4 bench players. I see it coming down to this: Pitchers (13 or 14): Brice as #13 (not my choice), if we go with just 13 pitchers. Valdez, Brewer or Houck as #14, if we go with 14 pitchers. (It looks like Houck is not a choice, but one can argue he should be.) Bench (3 or 4): Plawecki is a lock, so the choices are then 2 or 3 from: Arroyo (I think he's a lock.) Chavis (based on showing some MLB success and a hot spring, one can argue he deserves it) Duran (If Cordero looks to be out a while, he might be the best choice) Arauz (Hot spring not enough. He's young and needs more seasoning and proof he belongs.) Munoz (He might be the best choice, since he can play OF, too, but he's not on the 40 man.) Downs (I don't see it.) Personally, I'd DFA or trade Brice and go with Valdez or Brewer as the 13th pitcher, and have my bench start out with Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis and Duran, since AAA does not start until May, and Cordero is out. The real choice gets made when Cordero comes back. I'd send Duran down, but Chavis could be the choice to be demoted. If Cordero starts the season on the big club, Marwin and Arroyo fill the 2 slots on the bench next to Plawecki, and it comes down to Brewer or Valdez as the 14th pitcher or Chavis/Duran/Arauz as the 4th bench guy.

Not really arbitrary. It's about when Henry took control of the Sox. It's a significant marker. It was the beginning of a new era. Also, while Steinbrenner remained in control of the Yankees for the first few years of the 2000's, when he passed control of the team off and then died shortly afterwards, that marked the end of an era for the Yanks. While the two era dates are not exactly lined up, nobody can deny the changes each brought to the two teams. The score is actually 4-1, if you go by Henry teams vs post George teams, although the total years are different. I don't blame you for pointing out the date I chose. You only have to go back to 1996 to take a 5-4 lead.

21st Century Scoreboard, my friend.

You keep saying his velo dropped, despite all the charts I kept posting. It barely dropped at all and was about where it was for most of his career, but keep believing what the facts don't show.

What makes you think he had no physicals, or that they had no idea about his health status. The reason he signed for less than Scherzer was his health. It was known on both sides, and we rolled the dice. BTW, the jury is still out.

Kimmi doesn't hide. We were 20 back at points in 2019 and 2020. Nobody hid.

I think the numbers posted were before his day was over.

Had we let Sale walk, and he went on to have healthy and productive seasons, we'd have never heard the end of it.

It's the 2 days off in the first 9 days and the following 4-5 games played afterwards brings the high need time to about 14 days into the season. For years, teams have gotten by with 11-12 pitchers. 13 seemed like overkill. Since you can't bring guys in for 1 batter, anymore, I doubt we'll need 14 pitchers. We also have a few guys who can go 2+ innings: DHern, Andriese, Sawamura and at times, Taylor, Valdez and Brice. If someone gets hurt, bring up Houck or or someone else. We have some issues with our non pitchers. 1) Our defense sucks in some areas and could benefit from late inning defensive replacements or switches. 2) We have some weak hitters vs certain handed pitchers, and having the ability to PH several times in a game could be worth more than keeping Valdez in the pen. 3) I've never been a big fan of Chavis, but he seems like he deserves a chance to prove himself once and for all. He's been hot, so let it ride.

Good to see Bogey get a dinger and JD 2 hits, including a dbl. Kike got 3 hits.

I realize he's a big "if." The guy has some nasty stuff, but many pitchers with that label have failed. I get it. He's just 28 (meat of prime). He has a career 9.6 K/9 rate, and if he can bring his BB/9 rate of 3.4 and HR/9 rate of 1.6 down a notch, just maybe... His sample size from 2019-2020 in not even 110 IP, which of course could have been more had he not sucked, but I'm still hopeful.

The point is, most the $40M we spent this year goes away after 2021, but many of the holes the 8 guys we added will not be holes in 2022, because we can expect some help from a certain percent of players like Duran, Downs, Seabold, Pivetta, Dalbec, Casas and other players acquired with 2+ years of team control (kiki with 2 and others with options). We spend large next winter and it has more impact.

An outside surprise could come from Chavis playing LF and raking. Look, I know my use of the word "could" involves some stretches, but we do have multiple choices to put together a decent OF. Jacko mentions 0-1 good seasons by Renfroe & Cordero as proof our OF sucks, but when has that been the criteria? Clint Frazier has yet to have 250+ PAs in the bigs, but is being counted on by Jacko to do well. Aaron Hicks had 2 good years back in '17 and '18, and that makes him oh-so-special. An optimistic view of the Sox OF: Verdugo: 2 seasons over .800 and .827 in his last 598 PAs (age 24) Renfroe (29): has had one season over .800 and 2 other decent seasons (.778 and .751). Long stretch -17 to 19 of hitting .777 in 1414 PAs. Kike (29): meets Jacko's criteria of having 2 good seasons (.836 in 2015 & .806 in 2018). He's hit .742 from 2015-2019, which is not bad for a CF'er. He's a plus on defense at CF. Cordero (just 22 for God's sake) and has hit .754 in the last 3 years (216 PAs) and .925 in AAA over 517 PAs Marwin (32) had the one big trash can year (.907) but was not all that bad from 2018-2019 (.734). Chavis, Munoz & Duran are the big unknowns, but they all add some hopes.

Post of the morning.

I actually like Pivetta and rank him above Perez as our 4th starter before Sale returns. I do think Houck and Seabold can pass him, this year, but it is no given.

Exactly.