moonslav59

I wouldn't mind us getting Kluber, Porcello & Lester rather than just 2 guys: Odorizzi & Kluber.

How about seasonal winning % rank going into the playoffs? (Wild Card era began in 2012. Wild Card WS winners in RED) 2020 LAD 1st 2019 WSH 9th out of 10 2018 BOS 1st 2017 HOU 3rd 2016 CCubs 1st 2015 KCR 4th 2014 SFG 10th out of 10 2013 BOS 1st 2012 SFG 5th out of 10(Start of Wild Card ERA From 2012-2020, I would not say it's a crap shoot. In these 9 years, the best record team won 4 times. (10 teams make playoffs) The 1-3 ranked team won 5 of 9 times. 6 of the 1-4 ranked teams won. 7 of the top 5 ranked teams won the WS. THAT'S 78% of the time. Also, the #1 or #2 record in the league team lost the WS, three times in those 9 years. 12 of the 18 teams that made the WS in the last 9 years were top 5 teams (out of 10)- 67%. 11 out of 18 were top 4 (61%). 8 of 18 were the #1 or #2 record team. That's 44% of the time. If it was totally random, you'd expect about 2 (1.8) teams to make it, not 8. 2011 STL 8th of 8 2010 SFG 5th of 8 2009 NYY 1st of 8 2008 PHI 5th of 8 2007 BOS 1st of 8 2006 STL 13th in MLB (8 teams made playoffs) Had best record in 2005. 2005 CWS 2/8 2004 BOS 3/8 WC team 2003 FLA 7/8 WC team 2002 ANA 4/8 2001 AZ 6/8 2000 NYY 1999 NYY 1998 NYY 1997 FLA 1996 NYY 1995 ATL It looks like the 10 year period from 2002-2011, the crapshoot principle carried some weight. 5 of the top 4 teams won, and 5 of the 5-8 teams won, but 7 of the top 5 teams won the WS. Still- a crap shoot, yes

Good research, but why is the number of superstars the aspect you are addressing. How about looking at team WAR each year? How many bottom tier team WAR playoff teams made the WS? How many won it?

The guy has an ERA+ of 102 since 2018. If that is "terrible," I'm not sure what is decent. 125 pitchers have more IP'd than Eovaldi since 2018. That's about 4 per team. He was 126th in IP but 98th in WAR (4th starter numbers) and 71st in ERA- (3rd starter numbers). He had a 94 ERA from 2013-2016, which may be bad, but even that is not really "terrible." From 2013-2016, only 56 pitchers had more IP'd than Eovaldi's 858, and his WAR placed him 38th at 8.7. He placed 61st out of 73 pitchers with 550+ IP. (He placed 147th out of 191 SP'ers with 200+ IP with a 111 ERA-.)

Yankee Pitcher WAR 2019-2020: 1. 4.1 Tanaka (#1 in IP at 230) GONE 2. 3.8 Paxton (#3 in IP at 171) GONE 3. 2.4 Chapman 4. 2.0 German 5. 1.9 JA Happ (#2 in IP at 211) GONE 6. 1.8 Green (7th in IP at 95) 7. 1.5 Ottavino (8th in IP at 85) 8. 1.4 G Cole (10th in IP at 73) 9. 1.4 Britton (9th in IP at 80) 10. 1.2 Kahnle (14th in IP at 62) GONE 11. 1.0 Montgomery (16th in IP) 12. 0.8 Garcia (18th in IP) (Note: CC Sabathia is 5th in IP from 2019-2020) They've lost their 3 top IP pitchers who are also 3 of in their top 5 pitching WAR!

My point included adding Hernandez and a closer like Hand, along with Odorizzi & Kluber. It's unclear what other teams will add, and surely the Yanks and jays will be making some sort of a major addition or two. Right now, fangraphs has our estimated 2021 team WAR as 9th best in the AL. My thoughts are that we would climb to 4 or 5 after these additions. 40.6 Yankees 38.9 Astros (don't seem inclined to add any big pieces) 38.3 Twins (may not add much more) 38.1 Angels (may not add much more) 37.7 White Sox (may not add much more) 37.2 Guardians (may not add much more) 36.7 Athletics (may not add much more) 35.1 Blue Jays (seem interested in adding key pieces) 34.3 Red Sox (May add more than anyone else on this list.)

My dad turns 94 in July, God willing, and he has more energy than I do!

And our pitching, too. Severino is returning from TJS and all is bright. Sale is written off. 5 game sample sizes for Garcia- bright. Houck- dark. Eovaldi? A physical wreck. Montgomery? A shining example of an iron man. No doubt, Odorrizi is no Cole, but Kluber could be, and Odorrizi could be better than the Yankee 3rd or 4th starter. Our pen is certainly worse than the Yanks' pen, even if we added the Brad Hands, but I wasn't projecting even a WS appearance.

Um, my point was we'd acquire a closer like Hand. (We may also add a minor pen piece, but I only mentioned major additions.) Kike Hernandez is a capable 2Bman and CF'er, so he could possibly upgrade both positions. While he has a minus UZR/150 at 2B, he's +18 DRS and plus in both metrics in CF. A career .738 OPS for a 2Bman is better than the norm for 2B, since he started playing in 2014 and pretty close to the league average for CF'ers, too. He may not be a plus, but he's about as close to average as one can be. The question marks you raise about the Sox rotation, after adding Ordorrizi & Kluber can be equally raised with almost every other AL rotation, including your Yankees.

True. He wasn't acquired in his twilight, even though 34 years old is "twilight" for some pitchers. I wouldn't say his decline from 2.06 to 2.86 to 3.20 before joining the Sox signaled "twilight." (He did start his career in Boston with a 6.50 ERA in just 12 GS'd.

There once was a player named Dalbec Who loved to have him some Malbec It became a crutch As he drank way to much And got lost on his way to Quebec

Not really. While wild card teams have won it all, it is rare a poor one even makes it to the WS- let alone wins one. If 10 teams make the playoffs, IMO, the 10 ranked team doesn't have even close to a 10% chance at winning it all. I don't even think it's 5%, which in itself probably negates the "crapshoot principle."

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?). Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot? What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it? (I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

Yes, and he joined the team at age 34 and finished his career with BOS at 41.

What was lost in all that mess was that you were a pretty decent player.

Dodgers sign Blake Treinen $17.5M/2 w $8M club option ($1.5M buyout) , so $19M/3 or $25.5M/3. Tigers sign Robbie Grossman $10M/2 w up yo $500K bonuses.

Odorizzi may take a 1 year deal for 2 reasons: 1. COVID affect may increase value, next winter. 2. He may pitch more like 2018 than 2017 & 2019, thereby increasing his value, next winter. I'm not saying he will take a one year deal, but who knows?

Odorizzi does have a history of giving a little more than 5 IP/GS, even though a few seasons are barely over 5: 5.4 '14 6.0 '15 5.7 '16 5.1 '18 5.3 '19

We're not getting Bauer or Tanaka, so...

In Quebec?

I think this would be about the most we could expect. We need some resources for the pen and maybe CF/2B.

In some ways, you had it worse than Buckner.

Yes, and he had a glove that could be worn on either hand, but the Sox never allowed him to swap arms.

How did you feel being traded like that, then being ridiculed for being on the wrong side of a bad trade?

I had forgotten about getting him back for his final year.